Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 16:11:29

The world is past peak. Supplies are disrupted and/or missing all over the world. Even modern 1st-world nations are already seriously disrupted and face imminent social collapse. But not yet in the USA. The United States (and Canada) is a special instance, blessed with isolation, resource and technology wealth, a highly educated populace, and a strong democracy.

Peak oil is not apparent to most. It is occurring on a geologic time frame, not on a nightly media cycle or business quarter. Word of oil production declines anywhere move very slowly for a bunch of reasons: personal psychology (denial), media culture (corporate responsibility to advertisers), oil-industry propaganda, globalist/bankster controls, lies from corrupt oil-exporting, etc.

    Step One in Collapse: Word Gets Out.
--Perhaps the first bombshell will be the bloodbath at Exxon, Chevron, Conocophillips? (Who knows? Those companies won't come back). Or something else will alert us.
--news of another government/military report,
--news of another failed oil exporting nation,
--maybe ETP finally published lol?
--stagflation like the 1970's (when the USA peaked),
--a real serious supply crisis in Europe,
--another wave of migration from the ME/North Africa into Europe?

Fear, not chaos. The United States has plenty of oil to not collapse into social disarray. But the financial house of cards goes in a wink of an eye. Stock market rout. Bank failures (perhaps runs?), fortunes lost. You will see peak oil finally named on television, facebook, and twitter. Folks discuss and debate peak oil at lunch and on the internet. The usual media circus. Talking heads. The Mike and Spike show.

Denial for a month or two. Much like here at PO.com. Then fuel distribution disruptions, gun sales. Fuel runs and rationing. Rationing. Rationing. Grocery store runs, and government controls. Odd and Even Gas Days. Austerity. High unemployment. Household retrenchment. Business collapses.

    Step Two in Collapse: Personal Bankruptcy and Government Controls
(to be continued)
Last edited by pstarr on Sun 19 Feb 2017, 16:52:35, edited 1 time in total.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25254
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil Collapse in the United States

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 16:32:12

Good primer Pete. Will stay tune to your further observations
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7077
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Peak Oil Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 16:33:24

onlooker wrote:Good primer Pete. Will stay tune to your further observations

Thanks onlooker. I have more. Been writing this stuff for a decade. The Time Has Come :? 8O :razz:
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25254
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 19:47:11

pstarr - "Perhaps the first bombshell will be the bloodbath at Exxon, Chevron, Conocophillips? (Who knows? Those companies won't come back). Or something else will alert us."

Actually the "boomshell" may be the fact that ExxonMobil et al will be the "last men standing". As mentioned elsewhere for almost 30 years Big Oil has been converting from a major drilling format to oil reserve acquision and refining. And yet the 5 largest refiners in the world only crack less the 25% of global oil production. In fact XOM, decades down the road, may still be THE biggest corporation in the world. Today ExxonMobil is the world's largest refiner: 5.7 mm bopd out of the current 95 mm bopd.

And in a few decades: ExxonMobil may be THE global oil refiner with access to much of the remaining oil in the world. Like refining half of the global oil production...be it 80 mm bopd or 40 mm bopd. Let's not forget: the US, a net oil IMPORTER, is the world's largest refinery product EXPORTER. And ConocoPhilips and ExxonMobil are essentially tied as the largest US oil refineries. But what happens when we suddenly have ExxonMobilConPhil?

Folks need to remember the basis of being a member of the of Big Oil club house: these are the VERTICALLY INTERGRATED companies and not just exploration/production companies.

There may come a day when XOM produces very little oil. And it might still be the largest "oil company" on the planet. Or Shell Oil might hold that title. Or, heaven forbid, BP. LOL.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10055
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby careinke » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 20:10:31

Nice piece pstarr, I look forward to reading more.
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3420
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 21:26:15

careinke wrote:Nice piece pstarr, I look forward to reading more.

Thanks :)
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25254
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 21:46:03

Really thanks for the encouragement guys. I should have expected RM's pro-ExxonMobile stance. Here is the simple Peak Oil For Dummies response:
Image
Image
Image
SRSrocco, by way of Peak Oil Barrel.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25254
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 21:49:46

pstarr wrote:The world is past peak. Supplies are disrupted and/or missing all over the world.


Actually we are not past peak. More oil is being produced and consumed every year. And oil supplies are not disrupted or missing----there is more oil in storage right now then ever before in world history.

Right now we're in a global oil GLUT, for heaven's sake. Oil prices are down over 50% from their peak. There is so much surplus oil that OPEC recently announced voluntarily production cut backs to try to reduce global oil supplies.

Cheers!

Image
This is not peak oil. Its not happening yet.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 19913
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 22:48:38

pstarr wrote:The world is past peak. Supplies are disrupted and/or missing all over the world. Even modern 1st-world nations are already seriously disrupted and face imminent social collapse.


So...all that oil that was in inventory...wasn't? We were just being fooled by the MSM and the reporting agencies that told us about all that oil? Interesting theory. Contradicted by all the evidence, but no one has ever claimed that you knew anything about oil stuff.

pstarr wrote:Peak oil is not apparent to most.


A simpler explanation is that it didn't happen, as the charts you have used previously demonstrate. How about we just stick with the simpler explanation, the one supported by the data? I know...crazy idea in peak oil land, but how about we try?

pstarr wrote:
[list][size=150]
Fear, not chaos. The United States has plenty of oil to not collapse into social disarray. But the financial house of cards goes in a wink of an eye. Stock market rout. Bank failures (perhaps runs?), fortunes lost. You will see peak oil finally named on television, facebook, and twitter. Folks discuss and debate peak oil at lunch and on the internet. The usual media circus. Talking heads. The Mike and Spike show.


Sounds like good ol' fashion doomer porn. Unfortunate that industry drove a stake right through the heart of oil amateur hour last time, I understand. I have said it before, and it is still true. Better luck next peak oil!
AdamB
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2144
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Peak Oil Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 22:51:55

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:Good primer Pete. Will stay tune to your further observations

Thanks onlooker. I have more. Been writing this stuff for a decade. The Time Has Come :? 8O :razz:


Pete, has ANYTHING in your life changed for the worse since the peak oil of a decade back? Have you been forced to move from your home? Have you suffered from lack of available gasoline for your ICE powered CO2 emitting gas guzzler? Have you not been able to obtain calories? Has ANYTHING happened to you because of this peak oil you claim from a decade ago? A hangnail?
AdamB
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2144
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 19 Feb 2017, 23:24:08

pstarr - "I should have expected RM's pro-ExxonMobile stance." Geez boy...you couldn't recognize a knock on XOM if it bit you on the ass. Can you not see that I was presenting a future where the surviving companies start developing a near monopoly on refined products?
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10055
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 00:40:49

Plantagenet wrote:
pstarr wrote:The world is past peak. Supplies are disrupted and/or missing all over the world.


Actually we are not past peak. More oil is being produced and consumed every year. And oil supplies are not disrupted or missing----there is more oil in storage right now then ever before in world history.
It matters little that oil companies have managed to squeeze a few extra barrels out of remote dirty deep oil fields. Or ethanol corn fields for that matter lol

A most serious problem is that much of the produced oil actually never reaches the consumer. The Export Land Model has proven correct in its assumptions: oil exporting nations are enriched at the expense of the oil importers, and consumer the oil they produce. One-time members of OPEC now consume their oil. Of course ETP also proves the loss of oil to the oil production system itself. We may think there are 95mbpd floating around. That is a chimera.

Plantagenet wrote:Right now we're in a global oil GLUT, for heaven's sake. Oil prices are down over 50% from their peak. There is so much surplus oil that OPEC recently announced voluntarily production cut backs to try to reduce global oil supplies.

Cheers!

Image
This is not peak oil. Its not happening yet.

The current supply glut is also a demand dearth. a consequence of precipitous economic decline and destruction. Countries around the world can no longer afford $55 oil.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25254
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 01:29:32

ROCKMAN wrote:pstarr - "I should have expected RM's pro-ExxonMobile stance." Geez boy...you couldn't recognize a knock on XOM if it bit you on the ass. Can you not see that I was presenting a future where the surviving companies start developing a near monopoly on refined products?

Can a free-market for petroleum still exist with permanent government rationing? And a command economy?
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25254
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 04:36:01

Pete, I actually think the world peaked in Q2, 2008 aside from the games being played with non-conventional oil. Which means we will have a financial crisis 75-150 years after peak, now 66-141 years from today. Hard to call it any closer than that, human psychology being what it is. But always remember we are talking about a decades-long process, and not an event.

The oil production curve is tall and has been sloping upwards for 150+ years. The downward slope is steeper but with all the demand destruction going on, and with all the games being played with unconventional petroleum, but not that much steeper.

I don't think that YOU can start a panic to make the decline matter very much in my remaining life or yours. A powerful one percenter like Warren Buffet or Donald Trump could - but their predilections are not to do so. That is why they will be replacing conventional politicians with toadies for the next century, so that panic never happens.

But you can still claim moral victory, your grandkids will know you predicted the whole mess.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3807
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 11:27:27

KaiserJeep wrote:Pete, I actually think the world peaked in Q2, 2008 aside from the games being played with non-conventional oil. Which means we will have a financial crisis 75-150 years after peak, now 66-141 years from today. Hard to call it any closer than that, human psychology being what it is. But always remember we are talking about a decades-long process, and not an event.
Those numbers, are they astrological? Or astronomical? Do you know a fact from a fart?
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25254
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 11:59:09

Yes, I do the numbers on everything in my life, which is why I know from the IEA annual reports that less the silly games they play with condensates and shales and tar sands, conventional petroleum peaked in Q2'08. Did you not notice?? Aside from that obvious fact, as the price increased over the years, our economy got sicker and sicker, and fewer people had jobs.

I'm retired, as we both know, at age 65, with enough financial cushion to wait until age 66 and two months to maximize my Social Security and my 401K, which is in the most conservative financial option available in my plan.

How about you? Still got a job? Still ready to forgive the Dimmycrats for anything and everything?
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3807
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 12:14:52

The US is wealthy in terms of technology and resources, but most of them are controlled by a financial elite backed by very expensive military and security forces, which include surveillance and prison systems. It is not isolated because the same financial elite is dependent on a global economic system and are partners of counterparts in other countries. The local population is not highly educated, and given a military-industrial complex and a voting population that's primarily obsessed with "the American dream" it is not a strong democracy.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
User avatar
ralfy
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4483
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 12:15:15

pstarr wrote:It matters little that oil companies have managed to squeeze a few extra barrels out of remote dirty deep oil fields. Or ethanol corn fields for that matter lol


To replace existing decline and increase supplies, it was claimed that this required a new Saudi Arabia every 3 years. Since your peak oil date a decade ago, apparently we have found 3 new Saudi Arabias. This is not a few extra barrels.

And it mattered quite a bit, if the price consumers paid for their liquid fuels for transport is the measure.

pstarr wrote:The current supply glut is also a demand dearth. a consequence of precipitous economic decline and destruction. Countries around the world can no longer afford $55 oil.


Cue facts showing that both demand and supply have been increasing. Including when oil as far above $55/bbl.

Image
AdamB
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2144
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 12:16:42

The current supply glut is also a demand dearth. a consequence of precipitous economic decline and destruction. Countries around the world can no longer afford $55 oil.


Why do you keep making this stuff up after you have been shown time and again the data that shows this not to be the case. Here is yet another graph that demonstrates the only time that there was negative growth in global oil consumption and global GDP was following the market crash in 2008. Within a year both oil consumption and GDP continued to grow and they have been in positive growth ever since. It is clear from this that not only could consumers deal with $55 oil they could also deal with $100 oil for a period of 4 years prior to the large build up in supply. I guess you can continue to imagine some parallel universe where your scenario has developed, it just isn’t happening in our universe.

Image
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5092
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Peak Oil and Collapse in the United States

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 12:21:22

ralfy wrote:The US is wealthy in terms of technology and resources, but most of them are controlled by a financial elite backed by very expensive military and security forces, which include surveillance and prison systems.


Right. No other country in the world has a military (all militarizes being expensive), let alone surveillance or prison systems. Oh, and other countries don't have a financial elite either.

The US does have exceptionalism, which might be the only thing that matters when we discuss how we got to where we are, in relation to the rest of the world.

ralfy wrote: It is not isolated because the same financial elite is dependent on a global economic system and are partners of counterparts in other countries. The local population is not highly educated, and given a military-industrial complex and a voting population that's primarily obsessed with "the American dream" it is not a strong democracy.


The US is a strong democracy, the strongest in the history of the world the instant we begin talking about that "expensive" military. And obviously you weren't around during the Cold War when Charlie Daniels wrote "In America". I recommend about 40 seconds into that song to prove the point.
AdamB
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2144
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Next

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 18 guests