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Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Peak Demand Theory Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 12:19:37

Yes Tanada, we joked about this above, having a unit on the boat.

But this is just the kind of thing that is needed for SOLAR and WIND as well. I would suggest flipping the equation when appropriate, divert excess solar and wind watts to the generation of storeable energy units. Think of this process as a massive battery with no charge limit.

I still highly advocate Pops tag; Reduce/Recycle/Reuse to limit energy use as the necessary first step. The less we use the fewer nuclear plants we need o build, the smaller problems.

Outside of diesel for propulsion we are pretty energy self sufficient. Mostly because of LED lighting. We are also using under 1/2 gallon of fresh water per day. Not everyone can live like us. But it just one example.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby baha » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 21:36:36

I love boats, RV's, and tent camping. It teaches you valuable lessons about conservation and reliance. Everyone should be lost at sea for a few days :)
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 22:09:32

Newfie wrote: We are also using under 1/2 gallon of fresh water per day. .
I assume you mean per person per day but even then that is pretty extreme and not something you should do unless forced into it by circumstances. knowing how to do it, mast broke, rudder jammed and adrift is one thing. Doing it on purpose without a real need is not logical.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 10:07:58

1/2 gallon, 64 ounces, of fresh water per person per day is more than adequate for drinking. There is a old Wife’s tale you should drink 8 glasses of water a day, which is a lot. If you take a “glass” as 8 ounces (a cup) that’s 64 ounces.

That said I think I muffed the math and is more like 1 gallon per day. I know we filled up in Vero Beach and topped off 20 gallons in Georgetown, Bahamas about about 10 days latter.

What is the daily average usage here in the USA?

Understand I’m not setting ourselves as role models. I’m just pointing out the difference between “need” and “want”. If we are forced to concerve then there is a LOT of fat to be cut on many fronts. Including oil and water.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Cog » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 10:17:05

Depending on what you are eating, food can contain a lot of water so 1/2 gallon seems enough to me. I think the general rule is to have a full gallon per person so you can use the other 1/2 gallon for cleaning purposes. All of this is dependent of course of activity and temperature.

I've drank as much as 3 gallons a day when in the Mohave and was still thirsty.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 10:30:27

Newfie wrote:
What is the daily average usage here in the USA?



Designers and engineers use 100 gallons a day per person and that is all fresh water. On a boat you of course use salt water wherever possible and are not washing your car or watering a lawn.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 10:52:56

Tanada wrote:eventually when we get past the insane fear of radiation


Insane fear of radiation? Tell that to the people of Fukushima.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 12:28:26

asg70 wrote:
Tanada wrote:eventually when we get past the insane fear of radiation


Insane fear of radiation? Tell that to the people of Fukushima.


I have, not a single soul died from radiation at Fukushima and the idiot politicians have spend tens of billions trying to reduce radiation levels below what is natural background level over wide regions of the planet earth.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 12:35:13

Newfie wrote:1/2 gallon, 64 ounces, of fresh water per person per day is more than adequate for drinking. There is a old Wife’s tale you should drink 8 glasses of water a day, which is a lot. If you take a “glass” as 8 ounces (a cup) that’s 64 ounces.

That said I think I muffed the math and is more like 1 gallon per day. I know we filled up in Vero Beach and topped off 20 gallons in Georgetown, Bahamas about about 10 days latter.

What is the daily average usage here in the USA?

Understand I’m not setting ourselves as role models. I’m just pointing out the difference between “need” and “want”. If we are forced to conserve then there is a LOT of fat to be cut on many fronts. Including oil and water.


Back a century or so ago the US Navy invented soap to be used with sea water so sailors and uniforms could be kept clean without using potable water for washing. Though it would double the number of water lines I have long felt that sea coast communities should have filtered sea water for toilets and washing with drinking water and cooking water being a separate system. Both sets would feed into the same sewage treatment system. Just think how much potable water Los Angeles or NYC would save with that type of system installed? It is crazy to me we use fresh pure drinking water to flush toilets and take 20 minute long showers in places where water is a precious resource.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 12:40:35

There ya go. Don’t wash the car, don’t water the lawn, composting head (urban? Ug).

Do you let the water run when washing dishes?
When brushing your teeth?
15 minute showers?

Now if you really had to could you could squeeze by on 10 gallonas a day?

Same with cars and fuel, we COULD economize and use a lot less.

That’s the kind of thing that makes peak demand or cliff predictions so very difficult. We adjust all the time.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 12:46:22

Tanada,

Here is a little trick to cut usage. No PRESSURE water. We use a little foot pump. You want a glass of water, 3 squirts. Brush your teeth? 1/3squirt to wet the brush and one squirt to rinse your mouth. It’s funny as hell when we visit the kids and go to the sink and start tapping our foot with an empty glass under the spout.

But at present our whole cultural infrastructure is based upon the private automobile. There are many adaptations that could occur: ride share, small taxis. But the Walmart is not a walk or bike ride away.

We need to shrink our demand. But we won’t until forced. Then we will adapt.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 12:48:51

No doubt the FF companies have played a major role in the anti-nuclear campaign
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilvers ... 0449e17453
Are Fossil Fuel Interests Bankrolling The Anti-Nuclear Energy Movement?
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 13:14:27

I do not believe that there is any conspiracy to suppress nuclear energy. I believe the opposition to nuclear arises from the role that radiation plays in popular entertainment. Godzilla is a salt water iguana mutated by radiation. The Incredible Hulk was bombarded by gamma rays. The giant ants in the movie THEM! were the result of above ground bomb testing. It just goes on and on, you were exposed to radiation propaganda your whole life and no amount of facts including yhe fact that the only people harmed by commercial nuclear energy were the firefighters at Chernobyl, will make any difference.

More people die each year from rooftop solar (because of falls from rooftops) every year than the sixty or so that died around Chernobyl. 12,000 people die annually from coal effluents, and four times that many suffer respiratory diseases. The Banqiao dam failure in China in 1975 killed 171,000 people outright and displaced another 11 million.

Real facts do not matter, only the preconcieved notions. Nuclear energy is literally one million times safter than coal, with enough proven uranium reserves to replace coal for decades. But Godzilla destroying Tokyo yet again while the Japanese flee "trumps" actual casualty figures.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 13:18:01

onlooker wrote:No doubt the FF companies have played a major role in the anti-nuclear campaign
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilvers ... 0449e17453
Are Fossil Fuel Interests Bankrolling The Anti-Nuclear Energy Movement?


They always have been, since the early 1970's.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 13:22:44

And Kaiser is right too. Humans being fearful animals were swayed by popular depictions of the radiation being this ubiquitous and ghastly threat
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 13:50:38

Newfie wrote:There ya go. Don’t wash the car, don’t water the lawn, composting head (urban? Ug).

Do you let the water run when washing dishes?
When brushing your teeth?
15 minute showers?

Now if you really had to could you could squeeze by on 10 gallonas a day?

Same with cars and fuel, we COULD economize and use a lot less.

That’s the kind of thing that makes peak demand or cliff predictions so very difficult. We adjust all the time.

Absolutely. But since that implies peak doom isn't in our face, good luck getting fast crashers, or hard core doomers generally to admit how pervasive adaptation is -- IF sufficient motivation exists.

After all, my parent's generation (the "greatest" generation) were relatively efficient, re conserving resources. Not because they actually had to, but because since they were raised in the great depression and were young adults in WWII (rationing, fear) -- they saved and conserved CONSTANTLY, just on the chance that hard times might return, to better their resources to deal with it.

(I'm considered a miser by some of my friends. My best friend jokes with me that the reason my joints hurt so often is I squeeze my pennies so hard -- or at least this was true while I was saving for retirement. But compared to my parents, I'm a total piker when it comes to frugality. They literally saved old rusty pieces of pipe for plumbing jobs, and old underwear to use as rags. I just make damn sure my savings exceed my spending sufficiently, even after gifts and charity. Old habits die hard.)
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 16:21:15

One small correction to my last post in this thread. 12,000 people die annually in the USA from coal effluents, another 48,000 suffer respiratory disease. The other figures I gave were all world death rates which are estimated to be much higher than US totals for coal. The world figure is estimated at 2.5 million annual deaths from coal burning.

Expressed another way, burning coal kills as many people as WW2 did, every 30 years. Burning wood and other biomass is even worse. But even relatively clean fuels like propane and natural gas are far deadlier than nuclear energy.
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 16:48:51

KaiserJeep wrote:One small correction to my last post in this thread. 12,000 people die annually in the USA from coal effluents, another 48,000 suffer respiratory disease. The other figures I gave were all world death rates which are estimated to be much higher than US totals for coal. The world figure is estimated at 2.5 million annual deaths from coal burning.

Expressed another way, burning coal kills as many people as WW2 did, every 30 years. Burning wood and other biomass is even worse. But even relatively clean fuels like propane and natural gas are far deadlier than nuclear energy.

I don't know how they separate those that died from smoking or second hand smoke from those that died from a nearby coal or wood smoke stack. Would they have lived longer if they had to do without the benefits derived from burning the coal? I suspect those numbers are at best guesstimates and always lean toward the bias of the author and the agenda that funds them.
As a side on saving water. It is pointless for me to try to conserve it as any unused water in the spring flows out the top and forms a brook which flows to the sea in Long island sound. Avoiding a load of laundry saves electricity but not water. And I don't wash cars as living on a dirt road it is a waste of time and I never water the bit of lawn I tend because that would mean I had to mow more often. :)
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby baha » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 18:07:57

Tanada, you know I support Nuclear power and radiation is not as bad as people think but...The fact is what we call background radiation is the leftovers from above ground nuclear bomb testing done in the past. Before Humans dug up uranium and enriched it there was no background radiation.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'm a total piker when it comes to frugality. They literally saved old rusty pieces of pipe for plumbing jobs, and old underwear to use as rags.

OS - Have you been looking in my shop? :)

We use about 4 gallons of water a day when tent camping. Most of that for washing dishes. My wife insists on rinsing with heated water, I would just wipe the damn things off. I am the one that has to carry the water :(
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https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 19:46:57

baha wrote:Tanada, you know I support Nuclear power and radiation is not as bad as people think but...The fact is what we call background radiation is the leftovers from above ground nuclear bomb testing done in the past. Before Humans dug up uranium and enriched it there was no background radiation.


I don’t know what gave you that dea but it is 100% wrong. Every rock and plant on the Earth is naturally radioactive and the whole planet is bathed in the cosmic background radiation. High energy particles of cosmic radiation striking Nitrogen in the upper atmosphere forms Carbon-14 that becomes CO2 and is absorbed by plants that are eaten by animals. Sitting there reading this you have thousands of Carbon 14 and Potassium 40 natural radioactive isoptopes n your body decaying every second of every day you are alive. If you like in Colorado in Denver or in Quito, Peru, or on the coast f Lake Victoria on the Centeal African Plateau you are bathed in cosmic background radiation at about twice the level of people living in coastal cities like Rome or Washington D.C. If you are an airline pilot you spend so much time at very high altitude that you get irradiated about three chest xray equivalents a day. If you live on the beutiful beaches of Brazil the naturally radioactive sand will dose you even more than those airline pilots.

Whomever filled your head with the idea that the world was not radioactive before humans split Uranium did you a very serious disservce whether they meant to or not.
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