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Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postPosted: Sat 03 Feb 2018, 11:21:11
by AdamB
GHung wrote:Not that Adams response had anything to do with the conversation. Maybe we can start reducing population by subtracting a few zeros as well. Or reduce CO2 by moving a decimal point.


The title of the thread is peak demand theory. Not whatever nonsense you want to discuss about population or CO2. And guess what? Not only does Tony say it is going to happen, but given the world's penchant for wanting to move away from fossil fuels, but so does XOM.

If any of these ideas are too difficult, feel free to ask your uncle to explain them to you. :lol:

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postPosted: Sat 03 Feb 2018, 12:06:10
by GHung
AdamB wrote:
GHung wrote:Not that Adams response had anything to do with the conversation. Maybe we can start reducing population by subtracting a few zeros as well. Or reduce CO2 by moving a decimal point.


The title of the thread is peak demand theory. Not whatever nonsense you want to discuss about population or CO2. And guess what? Not only does Tony say it is going to happen, but given the world's penchant for wanting to move away from fossil fuels, but so does XOM.

If any of these ideas are too difficult, feel free to ask your uncle to explain them to you. :lol:


A lot of things affect demand; population, weather, a complex system of interconnected/interdependent economic factors....

If any of these ideas are too difficult, feel free to ask anyone paying attention to explain them to you. Or LOL all you want. Means little to me. 8O

You linear, non-systems thinkers are a riot sometimes.

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postPosted: Sat 03 Feb 2018, 12:14:22
by ralfy
Demand not just for oil but for various resources will eventually go down, but not in the way most imagine.

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postPosted: Sat 03 Feb 2018, 13:48:46
by onlooker
Yes Adam likes to think we can innovate and utilize technology to prolong the Economic juggernaught of modern industrial civilization. And what Ralfy, Ghung, me and others are saying is it WILL NOT work that way. We are NOT God, we cannot create breathable air, fresh water, arable soil and other resources out of thin air. Nor an energy source as advantageous as Oil either. So at some point Mother Nature will not cooperate with our haughty expectations and it sure is showing signs of already being reluctant. But of course it seems some of the optimists here seem to be disciples of Julian Simon who believes that as long as we have plenty of humans we can have continue growing because human ingenuity is the Master Resource. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postPosted: Sun 04 Feb 2018, 08:31:46
by baha
onlooker wrote:We are NOT God, we cannot create breathable air, fresh water, arable soil and other resources out of thin air.


You're right OL, but god doesn't make that stuff either, Mother Nature does. Out of Sunlight :) All we really have to do is kill off a few billion people and quit making the situation worse. Stop dumping our excess cr@p into the environment and she will recover quickly.

onlooker wrote:Nor an energy source as advantageous as Oil either.


That remains to be seen. There are other ways to store energy. Atomic stores greatly exceed oil and matter/anti-matter greatly exceeds that.

onlooker wrote:But of course it seems some of the optimists here seem to be disciples of Julian Simon who believes that as long as we have plenty of humans we can have continue growing because human ingenuity is the Master Resource.


Human ingenuity is what gave us the petroleum industry. It will give us the next answer. We may not continue to grow but I think we will survive. Some of us anyway :)

I just hope we don't find the next energy source until we have learned to appreciate it and use it in a responsible way. :cry:

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postPosted: Sun 04 Feb 2018, 08:56:32
by onlooker
Yes Baha, I sound like the eternal pessimist. Some of you are industrious and entrepreneurial people who instinctively feel we humans are capable of great achievements. I guess we all come at these issues from a slightly different vantage point. So, it is good that a mixture of insights and vantage points are represented in these discussions. I wish even more were represented. In the final analysis, nothing is wrong with striving for more and achieving it. However, our species has I believe seriously underestimated, the impact we were going to have on the Earth with our activities and our huge population. And ultimately we are NOT Mother Nature or God , which is to say we must recognize our own limitations in relation to what is possible in this Universe and what is possible for us. It is simply a matter of following the precautionary principle. It is something we all do in our everyday lives by being cautious and making sure of certain things. It is the smart way of acting. Our aspirations tempered by a healthy dose of humility.

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postPosted: Sun 04 Feb 2018, 09:29:32
by baha
Absolutely, we have limitations.

I think solar power is a good representative of that. If you can live cheap and simple you can have all the power you need. If you need $300/month in electricity you better start cracking some atoms...

In the end I think we will learn humility...I did :) And be willing to accept power at the rate Mother Nature wants to give it, not draw from the future or the past. It will be tough but people will make priorities and the refrigerator will get power before the hot tub.

It will be a great achievement and we can all do it.

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postPosted: Sun 04 Feb 2018, 10:44:47
by GHung
baha wrote:..... It will be a great achievement and we can all do it.


Must be nice to ignore that there is no "we" when it comes to acknowledging consequences. The industrial age is littered with unintended and unconsidered consequences that many (most?) folks don't care about or don't have the capacity to address, at least until they become predicaments.

I don't see the can-kicking of consequences slowing at all, at least not on any level that matters.

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postPosted: Sun 04 Feb 2018, 11:12:34
by asg70
"I don't see the can-kicking of consequences slowing at all"

How do you figure?

Had the fracking boom not happened then I think much of the classic peak-oil end-of-suburbia narrative would have indeed taken place. If not Mad Max doom then something in which the knock-on price of oil was a constant national topic (hopefully more nuanced than Drill Baby Drill).

When it comes to evaluating time, it's highly relative. The pulse of human civilization itself is a blip in geologic timescales. But BAU holding on for an extra 10-20 years makes a huge difference on how someone plans out their life (unless they want to just err on the side of caution and head for the hills anyway).

Re: Peak Demand Theory Pt. 1

Unread postPosted: Sun 04 Feb 2018, 11:36:16
by GHung
asg70 wrote:"I don't see the can-kicking of consequences slowing at all"

How do you figure?

Had the fracking boom not happened then I think much of the classic peak-oil end-of-suburbia narrative would have indeed taken place. If not Mad Max doom then something in which the knock-on price of oil was a constant national topic (hopefully more nuanced than Drill Baby Drill). ....


Seems you also don't understand the difference between proactive avoidance of consequences (by avoiding consequential behaviors in the first place) and forced reactionary responses. Big difference in mindset and outcomes.

But BAU holding on for an extra 10-20 years makes a huge difference on how someone plans out their life (unless they want to just err on the side of caution and head for the hills anyway).


If BAU continues 10-20 years or longer, my lifestyle won't change much. If BAU implodes, my lifestyle will change less, and in more manageable ways than most of yours'. That's the point. It isn't about "heading to the hills" and living in some bunker. It's about expectations and avoiding traps.

People who don't have mortgages don't worry whether or not they can make this month's mortgage payment. Same with other debts. People who don't have power bills, (or gas bills, or sewer bills, or water bills, etc.) don't have to worry about those things. People who don't need to drive much don't worry much about fuel prices. People who produce much of their food don't have to worry about food shortages so much. These things will be true come BAU or no BAU, because they have created, at least as much is possible, their own BAU, not so dependent on your BAU.

Peak oil is back and better than ever

Unread postPosted: Sun 04 Feb 2018, 23:07:57
by AdamB
Back when oil prices were high, people were talking a lot about peak oil supply — the possibility that we’d run out of new sources of crude oil eventually. But now people are talking about peak oil demand — the possibility that we’ll just stop using the stuff as we come up with better options. Most recently, analysts from Bank of America and Merrill Lynch have predicted that oil consumption will peak by 2030, as electric vehicles become dominant. The (simplified) argument: Right now, batteries make electric vehicles relatively expensive. As battery prices fall, EVs will turn into a bargain and people will start buying them en masse. If 40 percent of new car sales are EVs by 2030, that would be enough to send our oil habit into decline. Most oil companies are planning on demand peaking later — like 2040, 2050, or not at all .


Peak oil is back and better than ever

Exxon To Produce All Of Its Oil Despite Peak Demand Fears

Unread postPosted: Thu 08 Feb 2018, 23:24:29
by AdamB

ExxonMobil was forced to finally acknowledge the possibility that future climate change policy could lead to peak oil demand, a serious threat to the company’s operations over the long-term. In response to a shareholder resolution passed last year, the oil major just released a report that recognizes the danger of peak oil demand. By 2040, climate change policies and regulations could cut into oil demand, leading to a drop in consumption by 20 percent. Under this scenario, oil demand would decline by an average of 0.4 percent per year, with the lower end of the range seeing declines of 1.7 percent per year. This would mean that global oil demand would decline to 78 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2040, down from 95 mb/d in 2016. In the most pessimistic scenario (from the oil industry’s perspective), demand drops to 53 mb/d. It’s a


Exxon To Produce All Of Its Oil Despite Peak Demand Fears