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Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postPosted: Mon 21 Aug 2017, 11:49:14
by Plantagenet
If we get some kind of truly catastrophic global climate event, then I could see governments taking steps to curtail FF use in order to reduce CO2 emissions. This would cause oil, NG, and coal use to peak and then start to go down.

But short of something catastrophic happening with global climate change, IMHO we'll just muddle along as we have been with slowly increasing FF use, ever increasing CO2 emissions, and continually increasing global temperatures.

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Forward into disaster!

Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postPosted: Mon 21 Aug 2017, 11:54:01
by asg70
ROCKMAN wrote:Not in countries with insufficient an electricity supply.


Well gosh, that will never change, will it? How things are is how things will always be, so all future projections must simply be a continuation of the status quo.

Point being that the developed world, well, develops. Things change.

Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postPosted: Sat 26 Aug 2017, 13:54:24
by ROCKMAN
dohboi - It is you who doesn't understand what a trend is. Although I do know you're not that dumb. Stubborn yes...dumb no. LOL. The current TREND in ICE sales: from 2009 thru 2016 sales increased every year from 60 million vehicles to 84 million. That's a 24 million increase in just 8 years. IOW 3 million per year.

So tell us the trend for EV's: how much of a yearly TRRND increase in just the last 3 or 4 years? So we now have 1.2 BILLION ICE's on the road: how long before half (600 million) are replaced by EV's? Go ahead: be as optimistic as you think is plausible...I won't hold it against you. LOL.

Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postPosted: Sat 26 Aug 2017, 16:17:04
by ROCKMAN
dohboi - "That's a snapshot, not a trend'. OK, let's go with a trend: since 2009 sales of ICE's have increased from 60 million to 85 million per year. So in the last 8 years about 600 MILLION new ICE's have been sold in the last 8 years. That's not too much of "snapshot" for you, is it? LOL. So how many new EV's were sold during the last 8 years? We could run the trend line back further but I'm sure you'll like those numbers even less. And let's assume ICE sales take a sudden (and totally unrealistic 50% IMHO) decline and only 300 million are sold in the next 8 years. So how many EV's would you project being sold in the next 8 years?

Or feel free to pick any other time frame you like and I'll post that trend line for everyone here to see.

Re: Report: Coal and oil demand to peak by 2020

Unread postPosted: Sat 26 Aug 2017, 21:47:17
by ROCKMAN
dohboi - I assume you're too busy tracking Harvey so I did the search for you:

Since 2013 about 2.6 million EV's have been sold. Let's round up and call it 3 million. During that same 4.5 year period about about 340 million ICE's were sold. Let's round down and call it 300 million.

So the non-snapshot trend is 300 million ICE's vs 3 million EV's. Of course any trend is sublect to change. Now that motor fuel prices are significantly less then they averaged over the last 5 years we might see an increase in the trend of ICE's vs EV's.

Time will tell.

Oil demand likely to peak by 2030

Unread postPosted: Wed 18 Oct 2017, 12:59:47
by AdamB

As electric vehicles are to increase their popularity, particularly beyond 2025, the world petrol demand is to peak within 13 years, says a report by UK-based analysis firm Wood Mackenzie. The analysis estimates that the demand for oil in developed countries will reduce by about four million barrels per day by 2035. But, on the other hand, the developing economies will increase their demand for oil by nearly 16 million barrels per day by 2035. Currently 60 million out of the 96 million barrels of oil consumed globally every day is used in transport. But this is to decline from 2030, according to the analysis. Factors such as development of more fuel efficient vehicles, climate change policies, maturing of developing economies, and restrictions such as fuel efficiency and pollution standards imposed by governments are the other reasons for the decline in the demand. OECD oil demand...


Oil demand likely to peak by 2030

Re: Oil demand likely to peak by 2030

Unread postPosted: Wed 18 Oct 2017, 13:07:07
by AdamB
As many of us are already aware, and if you aren't all you need to do is watch the Tony Seba presentation in my presentation to know HOW peak demand happens, this peak demand thing is a real problem for those of us who have watched peaks come and go, and been given the opportunity to yuck it up over the economically and geologically gullible as each peak was displaced by yet another.

Peak demand can by definition cause peak oil all by its lonesome, no need for calling on geologically bad ideas or economically corrupted ones by the advocates, just good ol' fashioned "don't need it, don't want none, you can keep it" behavioral changes. The power of choice...in the end...perhaps the CAUSE of peak oil.

Re: Oil demand likely to peak by 2030

Unread postPosted: Wed 18 Oct 2017, 15:44:29
by ROCKMAN
Adam - by their analysis:

By 2035:

Developed country demand decreases by 4 million bopd

Undeveloped country demand increases by 16 million bopd.

So OK so while they project a decrease in motor fuel demand to decrease by 2030 they project oil demand to increase by a NET 12 million bopd thru 2035.

And this thread is about OIL demand and not MOTOR FUEL demand, right?

Re: Oil demand likely to peak by 2030

Unread postPosted: Wed 18 Oct 2017, 16:47:17
by Outcast_Searcher
ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - by their analysis:

By 2035:

Developed country demand decreases by 4 million bopd

Undeveloped country demand increases by 16 million bopd.

So OK so while they project a decrease in motor fuel demand to decrease by 2030 they project oil demand to increase by a NET 12 million bopd thru 2035.

And this thread is about OIL demand and not MOTOR FUEL demand, right?

Yes, the projections for first and third world populations are completely different, and will evolve on different time-lines. For example, generally, third world electricity is extremely unreliable, even for light bulbs. So projecting that you can charge millions of EV's with that is a COMPLETELY different kettle of fish than in the first world -- at least until the third world has reliable AND robust electricity. (And how many decades until they can consistently afford that?)

But like folks like you and KJ have correctly said or implied on this site -- until ICE's aren't increasing annually on a global scale -- it's pretty absurd to be trying to accurately predict the time of "peak oil" consumption (or demand).

Re: Oil demand likely to peak by 2030

Unread postPosted: Wed 18 Oct 2017, 22:45:01
by AdamB
ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - by their analysis:

By 2035:

Developed country demand decreases by 4 million bopd

Undeveloped country demand increases by 16 million bopd.

So OK so while they project a decrease in motor fuel demand to decrease by 2030 they project oil demand to increase by a NET 12 million bopd thru 2035.

And this thread is about OIL demand and not MOTOR FUEL demand, right?


The article is about oil demand, yup. Most oil goes into transport fuels, so a peak of demand in one could certainly lead to the other. For a more integrated analysis, I often refer to either the IEA or EIA analysis, they aren't buying into the peak demand idea yet. And of those 2, only the IEA hasn't fallen for the peak oil routine yet, the IEA fell for it back in 2006 or so, but then didn't have the hutzpah to cast that into their multi-decade forecast.

Having experienced an EV for going on 3 years now, I can see the power of this idea for most commuters, but low prices aren't going to help the transition much. They have me thinking about getting a nice 1/2 ton for cryin' out loud, and I have no need for one again.

6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

Unread postPosted: Sun 12 Nov 2017, 16:53:57
by AdamB


We haven’t reached peak oil consumption globally, also known as peak demand. We are likely to reach it globally by 2050, but it’s unlikely to occur before 2030 at the very earliest. There are six major factors which make defining exactly when it will occur very difficult. I haven’t seen any modelled analysis (including my own projection related to electric cars) which includes all six. When you see yet another prediction of peak demand or peak oil, use this as a handy cheat sheet to see how much weight to put upon the analysis. Peak Demand is Different than Peak Oil It’s important to separate the meaning of peak demand from the previously understood meaning of peak oil. That term, commonly referred to as Hubbert’s Peak, suggested that economically extractable oil reserves were finite and that the peak of what was globally economic


6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

Re: 6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

Unread postPosted: Sun 12 Nov 2017, 17:32:32
by vtsnowedin
From the linked article:
As oil’s peak demand approaches, its price per barrel will fall.

8O :o :razz:
Peak demand will only happen when rising prices do not increase supply leading to still higher prices that will force consumers to seek cheaper alternatives and or find ways to make do with less oil.

Re: 6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

Unread postPosted: Sun 12 Nov 2017, 20:14:20
by ralfy
vtsnowedin wrote:From the linked article:
As oil’s peak demand approaches, its price per barrel will fall.

8O :o :razz:
Peak demand will only happen when rising prices do not increase supply leading to still higher prices that will force consumers to seek cheaper alternatives and or find ways to make do with less oil.


There are no cheaper alternatives.

Re: 6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

Unread postPosted: Sun 12 Nov 2017, 20:19:52
by AdamB
ralfy wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:From the linked article:
As oil’s peak demand approaches, its price per barrel will fall.

8O :o :razz:
Peak demand will only happen when rising prices do not increase supply leading to still higher prices that will force consumers to seek cheaper alternatives and or find ways to make do with less oil.


There are no cheaper alternatives.


Good thing that cheaper isn't required. And is relative in nature, based on the supply/demand curves of the alternatives. Lest we forget, Walmart is already selling natural based hydrocarbons right off the shelf of your local walmart. So if the price of one commodity should increase beyond the cost of its alternative, suddenly one is no longer cheap, the other begins to displace the first, and latoc'ers will be screaming about the end of the world because of another hydrocarbon they know nothing about..natural gas.

Re: 6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

Unread postPosted: Sun 12 Nov 2017, 23:47:38
by vtsnowedin
ralfy wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:From the linked article:
As oil’s peak demand approaches, its price per barrel will fall.

8O :o :razz:
Peak demand will only happen when rising prices do not increase supply leading to still higher prices that will force consumers to seek cheaper alternatives and or find ways to make do with less oil.


There are no cheaper alternatives.

Not at present but when oil prices rise alternatives that are presently not viable will become so and the demand for cheaper alternatives will drive innovation which often has found that next better thing. Whale oil to coal oil to crude oil to ... I don't know what comes next.... but did the whale oil users know what would come next?

Re: 6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

Unread postPosted: Sun 12 Nov 2017, 23:52:34
by vtsnowedin
AdamB wrote:
Good thing that cheaper isn't required.

Of course it is!!! :lol:
If an alternative is not cheaper for a given amount of work performed by it compared to the same dollar amount of oil consumers will still be better off buying high priced oil to do the work desired or face doing without that work being done.

Re: 6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

Unread postPosted: Mon 13 Nov 2017, 07:47:12
by Tanada
vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Good thing that cheaper isn't required.

Of course it is!!! :lol:
If an alternative is not cheaper for a given amount of work performed by it compared to the same dollar amount of oil consumers will still be better off buying high priced oil to do the work desired or face doing without that work being done.


This is my biggest problem with wind and solar systems. Today both are successfully deployed only where there are large and repeated taxpayer funded subsidies. You can say the same for EV's with their large annual tax credits for purchasers.

IOW the field is badly skewed on the consumer level and nobody knows what the real ratio of solar/wind to fossil fuels would be.

Re: 6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

Unread postPosted: Mon 13 Nov 2017, 08:03:13
by vtsnowedin
Tanada wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Good thing that cheaper isn't required.

Of course it is!!! :lol:
If an alternative is not cheaper for a given amount of work performed by it compared to the same dollar amount of oil consumers will still be better off buying high priced oil to do the work desired or face doing without that work being done.


This is my biggest problem with wind and solar systems. Today both are successfully deployed only where there are large and repeated taxpayer funded subsidies. You can say the same for EV's with their large annual tax credits for purchasers.

IOW the field is badly skewed on the consumer level and nobody knows what the real ratio of solar/wind to fossil fuels would be.

Or will be in the future when oil supplies decline.

Re: 6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

Unread postPosted: Mon 13 Nov 2017, 20:29:52
by ralfy
vtsnowedin wrote:Not at present but when oil prices rise alternatives that are presently not viable will become so and the demand for cheaper alternatives will drive innovation which often has found that next better thing. Whale oil to coal oil to crude oil to ... I don't know what comes next.... but did the whale oil users know what would come next?


You do realize that the point "what comes next" works both ways?

China Oil Demand to Peak in 2040

Unread postPosted: Thu 16 Nov 2017, 18:28:35
by AdamB

Oil demand from China's transportation sector will peak in 2030 and flatten thereafter, mainly due to falling gasoline demand for passenger vehicles that become more efficient and increasingly electricity-driven, the International Energy Agency said in its latest World Energy Outlook report on Tuesday. The flattening of China's oil demand growth reflects its fundamental change from an industry-driven economy to one based on services and consumption, Platts reported. It also has major implications for Beijing's reliance on oil imports, energy security and the overall energy mix. "China's energy future will not be a continuation of previous trends," the IEA said, adding that the country's energy choices will have profound implications for global markets, trade and investment flows. Oil will still remain the backbone of China's transport fuel demand till 2030, growing by 3.3% per year on average, but its share will


China Oil Demand to Peak in 2040