[C8]

There were, broadly speaking, 2 Peak Oil camps:

1. Oil output will decline too fast before other energy sources can come online and transition (timing crash)

2. Oil output will decline by too much for any other energy source to economically take its place EVER (EROEI crash)

Are we now past these dangers?

More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.

Correct?

[Plantagenet]

There were, broadly speaking, 2 Peak Oil camps:

1. Oil output will decline too fast before other energy sources can come online and transition (timing crash)

2. Oil output will decline by too much for any other energy source to economically take its place EVER (EROEI crash)

Are we now past these dangers?

More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.

Correct?

We certainly got past the 2005-10 period when conventional oil production peaked. Unconventional oil, including oil from TOS, came on line and global oil production continued to grow to the point that we're in an oil glut now.

Hard to say how this will work out down the road. Once we work through this oil glut we'll find the super-giant oil fields have all peaked, and conventional oil production is going to go into a decline at a rate of a 3-7% for the foreseeable future. Unconventional oil + renewables + alternative energy has to make up that shortfall, plus a little more to allow for a small amount of continued global economic growth.

[Shaved Monkey]

Enjoy the canoe ride before we hit the waterfall is the way Im feeling

[ennui2]

I remember back in the day the IEA began to shift its rhetoric from merely prediction oil supply to banging the drum that we should leave oil proactively in order to fight climate change.

I've heard the arguments that renewables can't make up the shortfall ad nauseum. What we have available technologically is what we have, and people will not just suddenly throw up their hands, plant survival gardens, and powerdown. At some point there will be a deathbed conversion to renewables. At that time, someone like Musk will be in the catbird seat. Right now he's trying to seduce people but when the going gets rough they will be banging down his door.

Now, if you subscribe to the idea that the economy instantly nosedives and everyone's too poor to do anything but powerdown, then sure, game over, zombie hordes, whatever. But I just don't see it happening that suddenly and there are still more than enough people rich enough to drive a "buy our way out of danger" mentality.

So I think we're already at a transitional stage where the foundation for some meaningful PO mitigation is still being laid down. I doubt there's enough of a lull left in oil supply for it to hit critical mass, but it will likely be a better situation than it would have been in, let's say, 2008.

[Shaved Monkey]

Surely we are in the delusional stage.
No need to panic/plan buy a new SUV, PO isnt going to happen

[Simon_R]

We are past the peak, we are on the bumpy plateau

only question is when is the decline going to be permanent, and what flavour

Zombie hordes are here already (ask the greeks)

Simon

[Peak_Yeast]

Both 1 & 2 are still relevant and will be until solutions has been executed.

Today we have what amounts to no solution at all - and less time.

These things happens over such a long time that people obviously has problems seeing the drift and thus thinks nothing is happening.

It is and and we are in the most interesting period where the seed is sown as to how we will fare during the power down. - Which INHO is: Very badly for the vast majority - which is basically only a step worse that what we have now which is: 20 - 30% of population fares badly bordering on death by starvation, malnutrition, disease and war.

[peripato]

There were, broadly speaking, 2 Peak Oil camps:

1. Oil output will decline too fast before other energy sources can come online and transition (timing crash)

2. Oil output will decline by too much for any other energy source to economically take its place EVER (EROEI crash)

Are we now past these dangers?

More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.

Correct?

Yes, yes. Go back to sleep.

[ROCKMAN]

Once again this obsession with a PO date. As I mentioned the other day: after what we seen in the last 25 years with the $TRILLIONS in US tax $'s pissed away, the body count of not just our military but hundreds of thousands of civilians, the drastic positive/negative effects of high/low energy prices on the US economy, the increased instability of a region vitally critical to the global economy, etc., etc.: if someone doesn't now understand the importance of the Peak Oil Dynamic and not some X marked on a calendar then they'll never get it.

As has been said many times: no one is as blind as someone who refuses to see. LOL.

[C8]

Once again this obsession with a PO date. As I mentioned the other day: after what we seen in the last 25 years with the $TRILLIONS in US tax $'s pissed away, the body count of not just our military but hundreds of thousands of civilians, the drastic positive/negative effects of high/low energy prices on the US economy, the increased instability of a region vitally critical to the global economy, etc., etc.: if someone doesn't now understand the importance of the Peak Oil Dynamic and not some X marked on a calendar then they'll never get it.

As has been said many times: no one is as blind as someone who refuses to see. LOL.

I hear you Rock- but dates actually do matter. If PO hits in 2050 it gives folks a lot more time to research new tech, transition, etc. Dates do matter.

[vtsnowedin]

Are we now past these dangers?

More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.

Correct?

NO!
Only two new nuclear plants have been licensed and they have not been built yet.

Although new nuclear reactors have come online in the United States within the last couple of decades -- the last one started operation in 1996 -- the NRC hasn't issued a license to build a new reactor since 1978, a year before the Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania. Reactors that have opened in the last decades received their initial licenses before 1978.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/09/news/ec ... /index.htm
And solar and wind still count for a very small percentage of installed capacity and will take decades to ramp up even if optimistic projections are achieved.
http://www.rmi.org/RFGraph-US_installed ... capacities

[ralfy]

New production involves significant levels of debt, and only higher prices will allow the industry to pay off those debts:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... to-survive

Other sources of energy have low quantity and quality, and will very likely not be able to allow for a transition that will require high levels of energy and material resources:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-22956470

On top of that, more energy and material resources will be needed to meet the needs of a growing global population, something that will be very difficult in a world which might now be in overshoot:

https://theconversation.com/if-everyone ... uble-43905

The transition may involve many decades:

http://www.businessinsider.com/131-year ... il-2010-11

which will be difficult if resource availability keeps dropping:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

Given these, a successful transition will have to involve energy sources that are abundant, can provide high energy returns plus petrochemicals, reverse trends for resource availability, and cover the high costs of producing oil, the needs of a growing global population, and the wants of a growing global middle class. In addition, it has to take place within only a few years.

[GHung]

..... the NRC hasn't issued a license to build a new reactor since 1978, a year before the Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania. Reactors that have opened in the last decades received their initial licenses before 1978.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_El ... ts_3_and_4

In February 2012, the NRC approved the construction license of the two proposed AP1000 reactors at the Vogtle plant.[26] NRC Chairman Gregory Jaczko cast the lone dissenting vote on plans to build and operate the two new nuclear power reactors, citing safety concerns stemming from Japan's 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, and saying "I cannot support issuing this license as if Fukushima never happened".[27] One week after Southern received the license to begin construction, a dozen environmental and anti-nuclear groups sued to stop the expansion project, saying "public safety and environmental problems since Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor accident have not been taken into account".[28] On July 11, 2012, the lawsuit was rejected by the Washington D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.

https://www.google.com/maps/@33.1390271 ... a=!3m1!1e3

[ROCKMAN]

C8 - That's the point I keep hitting on. EVERYONE: Let's try a quick survey;

What will be the price of oil on the day (Call it X) we reach global PO?
The price of oil 2 years prior to GPO?
The price of oil X+5 years?
The price of oil X+10 years?
The price of oil X+30 years?

Be brave everyone: none of the answers should be subject to any criticism.

[Plantagenet]

C8 - That's the point I keep hitting on. EVERYONE: Let's try a quick survey;

What will be the price of oil on the day (Call it X) we reach global PO?
The price of oil 2 years prior to GPO?
The price of oil X+5 years?
The price of oil X+10 years?
The price of oil X+30 years?

Be brave everyone: none of the answers should be subject to any criticism.

IMHO We'll hit PO pretty darn soon, if KSA and Russia keep pumping full out from their giant conventional fields. So I'll say PO will hit with an oil price of ca. $30 bbl.

X + 5 $150
X + 10 $30 (global depression)
x + 30 $300 (world economy partly collapsed, partly switched over to NG, nukes, solar, wind, coal, etc.).

Cheers!

PS: Thats a great question---you should start a new topic with a poll.

[Simon_R]

Assuming the Definition of Peak Oil, is

The moment that production peaks from conventional reservoirs

You see Rockman, I have been paying attention. Then I believe we peaked at 2008.

However, as the price of Oil, is only loosely related to the definition of peak oil (Fracking / Oil Sands / Kerogen)
This means that tracking price after Peak Oil, would also mean tracking affordability of unconventional resevoirs and liquid fuel extraction methods.
Loosely put, as the cost rises due to supply and demand, then more unconventional methods become affordable, and in the rush to exploit them, we end up with a 'glut'. However, the low point of each glut will be higher than the previous low point.
Given that as my hypothesis

PO = 2008 = $90
PO + 5 = 2013 = $120
PO + 10 = 2018 = $60
PO + 30 = 2038 = $120

The data is way to volatile to predict in 5-10 year chunks, if this is not a sign that we have peaked, then nothing will convince people.
We are on a bumpy plateau/descent now.
To get an accurate prediction in 30 years, speak to a 3 year old, the first thing they say try and get a current spot price on it (chocolate / Barbie etc), then take that as the price of crude in 30 years.

Simon

[Revi]

How could the danger of Peak Oil pass? The danger is just over the horizon. We are falling down the Seneca Cliff, and it will accelerate. It's nice to have some extra oil right now, but I am sure we'll use it in our wave runners and snowmobiles long before we need it to grind corn.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/all-roads-lead-to-peak-oil/

[C8]

I can't see oil above $100 a barrel for the next decade, and maybe longer.

The exploration and extraction tech just keeps improving dramatically. Not in just new ways to get oil, but to get it cheaply. Meanwhile China is building dozens and dozens of nuke reactors and developing floating nukes to rent to coastal cities. Solar and wind prices keep declining.

And as virtual reality, travel, meetings, etc. continue to expand- people seem to be using less energy than before. Broke, they stay home and watch HD TV and loo at their phones instead of more energy intense pleasures. Businesses conduct less travel, tele-conference more, etc.

So with expanding cheap energy and lowering energy use I think the energy transition will probably succeed.

[ralfy]

I can't see oil above $100 a barrel for the next decade, and maybe longer.

The exploration and extraction tech just keeps improving dramatically. Not in just new ways to get oil, but to get it cheaply. Meanwhile China is building dozens and dozens of nuke reactors and developing floating nukes to rent to coastal cities. Solar and wind prices keep declining.

And as virtual reality, travel, meetings, etc. continue to expand- people seem to be using less energy than before. Broke, they stay home and watch HD TV and loo at their phones instead of more energy intense pleasures. Businesses conduct less travel, tele-conference more, etc.

So with expanding cheap energy and lowering energy use I think the energy transition will probably succeed.

From what I know, the opposite is taking place. That is, costs have been rising, which is why debt has been going up as well. They can only be repaid if prices go up:

has-the-danger-of-peak-oil-passed-t72293.html#p1296507

Thus, the trend line is increasing debt for diminishing returns that can only be paid through rising prices.

Also, an information society may involve more energy as disposable income is used to spend on goods and services. That might explain why a country with less than 5 pct of the world's population has to consume up to a fifth of world oil production. For the rest of the world to follow suit, the equivalent of at least one more earth will be needed:

has-the-danger-of-peak-oil-passed-t72293.html#p1296507

which is not likely as the world is very likely in overshoot even with basic living standards:

has-the-danger-of-peak-oil-passed-t72293.html#p1296507

[EdwinSm]

NO on two possible accounts (take your pick):

NO! The danger of Peak Oil has not passed - the danger is still mostly in the future, when the effects of a peak in oil production start to be realized by the general public.

or

NO! There is still enough carbon in the earth's mantel to facilitate the on going production of abiotic oil