[onlooker]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ ... li=BBnbfcL
thought this merited a new post. Now the energy industry and the transport industry are savoring opportunities and soon so will the fishing industry. How much oil can be accessed? Of course this story has conveniently left out the environmental aspect of this development of melting of the Arctic sea ice cap will now initiate a feedback loop of the albedo effect to work in overdrive as dark waters absorb heat rather than ice which reflected it. Methane escaping in vast amounts oh boy nobody wants to hear about that.

[Ibon]

Folks here in Panama view this as a potential $ trillion loss of revenue as the Panama Canal will become an obsolete artifact of the 20th century

[ennui2]

Also, lots of bright green environmentalists applauded the decision by US oil interests to abandon the arctic. They didn't want to acknowledge that this was only a temporary decision due to current low oil prices. They thought it was the oil companies somehow showing a glimmer of ecological responsibility. Well, articles like this really drive home the point that they'll be back.

[Cog]

My only concern is who do I invest with to make money on this.

[ennui2]

Do you really believe Shell gave up on the Arctic because of a short-term crude price dip?

Yes.

The multi-billion investment in Arctic was planned decades ago before the the enormous cost and crappy payoff was known. Now they know.

I didn't make a prediction when they'll be back, just that they will be back eventually. I don't feel that the arctic has been explored thoroughly enough for them to be able to claim there's nothing worth drilling up there. It's just not worth it for them to keep exploring in this current market.

[JV153]

I wouldn't get too excited.. there isn't much sunlight up far north and .. much, much less during the winter. 2nd thing is an ocean can absorb a lot of heat energy and not warm up much.

[vtsnowedin]

Folks here in Panama view this as a potential $ trillion loss of revenue as the Panama Canal will become an obsolete artifact of the 20th century

I would not worry about that too awful much. The canal is open for business 365 days a year and open water shipping through the North East passage will be hard pressed to get past six weeks a year this decade.

[shortonoil]

"I'll help. How much oil production and at what rate is necessary to amortize the drill rig/platform, subsea production systems, collection pipes, landing, onshore terminal and delivery roads/rails out."

Being a PPM (professional project manager) myself I can assure you that some eye balls were bleeding at Shell before they came up with those numbers!

[Tanada]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-world-has-discovered-a-dollar1-trillion-ocean/ar-BBowEny?li=BBnbfcL
thought this merited a new post. Now the energy industry and the transport industry are savoring opportunities and soon so will the fishing industry. How much oil can be accessed? Of course this story has conveniently left out the environmental aspect of this development of melting of the Arctic sea ice cap will now initiate a feedback loop of the albedo effect to work in overdrive as dark waters absorb heat rather than ice which reflected it. Methane escaping in vast amounts oh boy nobody wants to hear about that.

Gee Onlooker, I just posted the Bloomberg news piece about this very thing yesterday morning!

post1292368.html#p1292368

[onlooker]

Maybe you should merge the two threads T. Avoid confusion.

[Tanada]

Maybe you should merge the two threads T. Avoid confusion.

Well you specified you think it deserves a dedicated thread so I will leave it up to you. I just think its funny you found an article from a different news source on exactly the same topic less than a day after I posted the Bloomberg one. It really makes it clear just how closely all the MSM imitate one another instead of actually doing investigations and presenting news they found themselves.

[onlooker]

Yeah but what I find even more interesting is no mention of the fact that this new economic opportunity comes with the pitfall of a Arctic which now can serve to amplify global warming by trapping the heat in the darker waters when before the ice was reflecting sunlight back out. Oh well maybe it is just my over active doomer sense. Oh yes I think T, my advice is transfer any posts related to this topic here. Of course that is the Mods call but happy to give advice.

[Tanada]

New article in Bloomberg, lets all get rich from Arctic Ocean access! More at link below quote.

As chairman of investments at Guggenheim Partners, Scott Minerd thought he had a realistic view on how big an economic challenge climate change poses.

Then, at a Hoover Institution conference almost three years ago, he met former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz. Minerd recalled him saying: “Scott, imagine that you woke up tomorrow morning, and the headline on the newspapers was, 'The World Has Discovered a New Ocean.’” The opening of the Arctic, Shultz told him, may be one of the most important events since the end of the ice age, some 12,000 years ago.

And while Shultz’s spokesman couldn’t confirm the conversation, there’s no doubting the melting of the Arctic ice cap, and the unveiling of resources below, presents mind-boggling opportunities for energy, shipping, fishing, science, and military exploitation. Russia even planted its flag on the sea floor at the North Pole in 2007.

Energy and shipping have been first up. Norway made its national fortune drilling in northern waters, and Arctic fossil fuel exploration has become a more prominent part of U.S. energy policy. Melting ice means that in summer months, cargo can travel approximately 5,000 km from Korea to New York, rather than the 12,000 km it takes to pass through the Panama Canal. Warming waters also open up access to commercial fish stocks, making the Arctic a growing source of food.

Not long after that Hoover conference, Minerd joined a World Economic Forum advisory council. Its task? Develop guidelines for those nations looking to do business at the top of the world. That framework is to be released Thursday, in Davos.

“The history of economic development in regions of the world has really been fraught with a mass of mistakes,” said Minerd, who before Guggenheim worked at Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley. “It really seems that someone needed to start developing a minimum standard, as a guide for economic development in the region.”

The Arctic Investment Protocol, developed by a 22-member WEF “global agenda council,” puts forward sustainability principles similar to initiatives developed for mature economies in recent years. The focus is long-term: tap the expertise of indigenous communities and treat them as commercial partners, protect ecosystems (even as rising temperatures change them before our eyes), and prevent corruption while encouraging international collaboration. The Arctic nations include Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the U.S., so there is a lot of collaboration to be had.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... lion-ocean

[ennui2]

Nothing concrete? Just hope?

If oil gets expensive enough, ultra-deep-water, methane hydrates, CTL, it will ALL be brought into action. It's only a matter of time. I'm not claiming there's a ton of oil up there, but if anything IS there to extract, it will be extracted. Oil companies will not leave a drop in the ground if they can find a way to make money on it. That's their track record up until now so I hardly feel this is an extreme position.

[JimBof]

Yeah but what I find even more interesting is no mention of the fact that this new economic opportunity comes with the pitfall of a Arctic which now can serve to amplify global warming by trapping the heat in the darker waters when before the ice was reflecting sunlight back out. Oh well maybe it is just my over active doomer sense. Oh yes I think T, my advice is transfer any posts related to this topic here. Of course that is the Mods call but happy to give advice.

My worry is what will happen when the ice melts. Comment from an English Professor who has been in the arctic every year for nearly 40 years, When he first went there the ice was 5 M thick, now it is less than one. Although the decrease in area has not been great sometime in the next 10 years the thickness should reduce to Zero. A mixture of ice and water is basically a constant temperature equilibrium system. Once the ice is gone in 24 hour daylight the temperature is free to rise as fast as it wants, the thermal equilibrium is gone. What effect will this have on world weather? It could be catastrophic,does anybody know? This could be a whole new ball game, a breaking point.

[onlooker]

Yeah but what I find even more interesting is no mention of the fact that this new economic opportunity comes with the pitfall of a Arctic which now can serve to amplify global warming by trapping the heat in the darker waters when before the ice was reflecting sunlight back out. Oh well maybe it is just my over active doomer sense. Oh yes I think T, my advice is transfer any posts related to this topic here. Of course that is the Mods call but happy to give advice.

My worry is what will happen when the ice melts. Comment from an English Professor who has been in the arctic every year for nearly 40 years, When he first went there the ice was 5 M thick, now it is less than one. Although the decrease in area has not been great sometime in the next 10 years the thickness should reduce to Zero. A mixture of ice and water is basically a constant temperature equilibrium system. Once the ice is gone in 24 hour daylight the temperature is free to rise as fast as it wants, the thermal equilibrium is gone. What effect will this have on world weather? It could be catastrophic,does anybody know? This could be a whole new ball game, a breaking point.

Absolutely, Jim. In fact what is most scary is a runaway methane escape particularly in the East Siberian Arctic sea (ESAS). This is well thought out in the posts initially created by Cid Yama in the topics on Runaway Global warming has arrived. Here also is a link with a summary of the threat in the ESAS. http://ameg.me/index.php/faq

[Subjectivist]

Now that the profit motive for an ce free Arctic Ocean is being trumpeted in multiple media outlets, how long before news laws or regulations get passed? It seems like this kind of media attention is designed to get the general public behind exploitation.

After all if there is a buck to be made who cares about global warming? People are so short sighted it seems impossible they will do the right thing instead of the profitable thing.