[Graeme]

Carbon Tracker Sees $283 Billion of LNG Projects as Uneconomic

About $283 billion of liquefied natural gas projects may be surplus to requirements if the world is to keep carbon emissions below levels aimed at holding global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, the Carbon Tracker Initiative said.

In the next decade, 16 of the 20 biggest LNG companies are studying major projects that probably won’t be needed, according to a report by the group, which argues a large share of fossil-fuel reserves must stay in the ground to stem climate change.

The 2-degree limit is the level that scientists have advised is needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

About $71 billion of potential LNG capital spending will be unnecessary in the U.S. over the decade, along with $82 billion in Canada and $68 billion in Australia, based on the study’s lower-demand scenario, the London-based group said in a statement on Tuesday.

While the move to a low-carbon economy shows some room for gas-demand growth to 2040, energy companies will need to choose which projects to develop, Carbon Tracker said. As the cost of renewable energy falls, some regions will probably leapfrog over using gas, curbing demand for LNG, which is already in a glut.

“The current oversupply of LNG means there is already a pipeline of projects to come on stream,” said James Leaton, Carbon Tracker’s head of research. “It is not clear whether these will be needed and generate value for shareholders.”

New projects that rely on an LNG price of more than $10 per million British thermal units may not be needed, the group said.

bloomberg

[Apneaman]

The most important climate story today is the global coal renaissance

"If you only focused on the United States, you might think coal's days are numbered.

The dirtiest of all fossil fuels once provided more than half of America's electricity. That has since dropped to 39 percent, thanks to competition from cheap natural gas, a dogged campaign by the Sierra Club to shutter old coal plants, and strict new air pollution regulations. Add in the Obama administration's upcoming crackdown on CO2 emissions from power plants, and US coal will keep declining in the future.

But that's not true globally. Far from it. According to data from BP's Statistical Review of Energy, coal consumption has actually been accelerating worldwide since the end of the 1990s:"


http://www.vox.com/2015/7/7/8908179/coa ... ate-change

[eugene]

Personally, I don't believe there's a chance in hell we'll hold things below 2 degrees. I see nothing in the human animal to indicate we can cooperate on anything. But I do understand the desire to hope. Hope allows people to believe in the damndist concepts. Day or so a high school science teacher stated my burning wood was carbon neutral. I suppose it is at the most basic level but I think of the machinery, the chain saws, the transportation, etc all of which has to be mined, transported, manufactured, etc, etc. I see way, way too much of this simplistic, quick solution type thinking as people work extremely hard to avoid facing the world as it really is.

[ROCKMAN]

"About $71 billion of potential LNG capital spending will be unnecessary in the U.S. over the decade, along with $82 billion in Canada and $68 billion in Australia, based on the study’s lower-demand scenario, the London-based group said in a statement on Tuesday."

Yes: if there isn't a demand as per the "lower-demand scenario" those projects won't be built. OTHO under the "higher-demand scenario" those projects and others will be built. IOW what the world needs to develop, regardless of the effect on the climate, will be built IMHO if the need and economics justification exists. And at this point in time I don't see anyone's predictions (either way) to hold any level of confidence.

[Graeme]

Well, I do. I already posted in the Fracking thread, reference to increasing competition from cheaper renewables as well as a backlash from the public about the adverse environmental effects of fracking. The industry has only a few decades at best, I suspect that the NG industry will be only a shadow of it's former self even after ten years for the reasons given.