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What if Peak Oil never happens?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

What if Peak Oil never happens?

Unread postby PeakKYJelly » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 18:52:20

What if a more efficient technology allows the extraction of oil in all the quantities we need, and while this is happening, a new technology is invented to replace oil as an energy source, so by the time oil starts to fade away, we are already covered? How would all the PeakOilers on here react? Would you be like that chick on Saturday Night Live, played by Gilda Radner, who would say "Never miiiiiiiind" whenever she was shown to be wrong?
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Unread postby Clouseau2 » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:04:52

Since we live on a finite planet, the answer is obviously that something else would peak. Water, space, food, whatever.

I would really like it if I were proven wrong, it would make me more relaxed and confident in my future.
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Unread postby PeakKYJelly » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:08:13

We've got the entire solar system to expand into, and then the rest of the universe.
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Unread postby FatherOfTwo » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:10:15

PeakKYJelly wrote:We've got the entire solar system to expand into, and then the rest of the universe.


Please spend some more time reading the articles here on this site. Start with the best of breed.
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Re: What if Peak Oil never happens?

Unread postby Phil » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:12:19

PeakKYJelly wrote:What if a more efficient technology allows the extraction of oil in all the quantities we need, and while this is happening, a new technology is invented to replace oil as an energy source, so by the time oil starts to fade away, we are already covered? How would all the PeakOilers on here react? Would you be like that chick on Saturday Night Live, played by Gilda Radner, who would say "Never miiiiiiiind" whenever she was shown to be wrong?


Stupid post. Do you even know what peak oil means? Do you think the world will continue producing more and more oil every year for eternity? Peak oil will happen regardless of other energy technologies. The severity and consequences of peak oil is open to debate.

Your thoughts are not original, and in fact, have been covered elsewhere on this site countless times. How about not posting here anymore as you've already proven yourself a dumbass.
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Unread postby Phil » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:14:03

PeakKYJelly wrote:We've got the entire solar system to expand into, and then the rest of the universe.


Good luck with that moron.
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Re: What if Peak Oil never happens?

Unread postby lorenzo » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:14:42

PeakKYJelly wrote:What if a more efficient technology allows the extraction of oil in all the quantities we need, and while this is happening, a new technology is invented to replace oil as an energy source, so by the time oil starts to fade away, we are already covered? How would all the PeakOilers on here react? Would you be like that chick on Saturday Night Live, played by Gilda Radner, who would say "Never miiiiiiiind" whenever she was shown to be wrong?


Very good question. I've asked myself this question over and over again. There are no clear and easy answers.

But there are some very smart people on this website who are writing several kinds of scenario's, ranging from "total disaster" to "gentle transition". Browse the forums a bit more, you might find a lot of very interesting prognoses and projections.
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Unread postby sjn » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:16:47

You really should cut down on those BigMacs... :razz:
There is no way we're going to grow indefinately. Growth into the solar system or even into the universe doesn't solve our problems here, now and into the future. If we expanded to other worlds they would need to be largely independent to be viable, it isn't a solution except for the posiblility for a way of continutation of the species/earthlife.
Last edited by sjn on Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:21:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What if Peak Oil never happens?

Unread postby PeakKYJelly » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:19:42

Phil wrote:I'm a moron. I don't even know what peak oil means. Do you think the world will continue producing more and more oil every year for eternity? Peak oil will happen regardless of other energy technologies. The severity and consequences of peak oil is open to debate.

My thoughts are not original, and in fact, have been covered elsewhere on this site countless times. How about I not post here anymore as I've already proven myself a dumbass.


Ok, suit yourself Phil.
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Re: What if Peak Oil never happens?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:46:31

PeakKYJelly wrote:
Phil wrote:I'm a moron. I don't even know what peak oil means. Do you think the world will continue producing more and more oil every year for eternity? Peak oil will happen regardless of other energy technologies. The severity and consequences of peak oil is open to debate.

My thoughts are not original, and in fact, have been covered elsewhere on this site countless times. How about I not post here anymore as I've already proven myself a dumbass.


Ok, suit yourself Phil.


It would be a relief were someone to convince me we have the wherewithal to replace our depleting core resources in the quantities needed to support plant earth's 5 billions consuming at the rate in the West....which is where globalisation ultimately is destined.

However, no one has thus far. Market mechanisms are merely staving off that envitable day when the numbers cross the threshold to the degree that demand will continue to overshoot supply even in a slump. Then, the slippery slope will be a painful one as we slide into meltdown.

Unless you are mentally unbalanced, no one on here relishes that sad day when all we have come to take for granted evaporates. All I am trying to do, speaking for myself, is make sense of where to go from here with some semblance of dignity and reason.
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Unread postby 0mar » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 19:58:45

The world is finite and it doesn't look like we'll be having moonbases in the next 10 years so lets stick to earth. Peak oil has happened for 50+ countries so far. It is only a matter of time before it hits them all. Denying peak oil is denying water is H2O or that the sun provides light and warmth.
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Unread postby UIUCstudent01 » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 20:19:33

Too many "what if's?"
Too high a goal.

The numbers don't say it.
The media's reaction - abiotic oil, oil is infinite, capitalism and ingeniuty - are not exactly solutions.

What's missing is a solution that continues "the American way of life" (as well as a lot of other countries 'way of life' too). So, if you provide a solution - a fusion powerplant harnessing 90% of the energy - then I'd be glad to look like a fool. Seriously.
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Unread postby PO_TimeCr0ss » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 20:25:33

Its a great "What if?"

But that's it...what if.

We would have to develop and implement this new replacement for oil. Not to mention converting most of the worlds energy needs to this new source.

Can we do this all in > 20 years? Unfortunately, I don't think so. I wish we could. But my common sense tells me we cannot.

As for expanding into the solar system, the chances of that happening within 100 years, even at our current state of technology, is very nill.
" Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary"
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Unread postby Daculling » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 20:32:43

I think the only way it may not happen is if a giant comet strikes the earth :)
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Re: What if Peak Oil never happens?

Unread postby venky » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 20:36:32

PeakKYJelly wrote:What if a more efficient technology allows the extraction of oil in all the quantities we need, and while this is happening, a new technology is invented to replace oil as an energy source, so by the time oil starts to fade away, we are already covered? How would all the PeakOilers on here react? Would you be like that chick on Saturday Night Live, played by Gilda Radner, who would say "Never miiiiiiiind" whenever she was shown to be wrong?


Not impossible, but extremely unlikely. Anyway time is running out, 5-10 years at the most. So that ultra high speed drilling technology better come online quickly.

Space expansion is a useless fantasy in our day and age. Not even remotely possible except in a time frame of perhaps hundreds of years. We are certainly not going to solve Peak Oil by escaping to Mars.

Anyone who believe in infinite growth in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.

So which one are you?
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Unread postby nero » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 20:51:10

Come on ease up guys. He is asking us to speculate on the case where peak oil doesn't happen. He isn't asking people to give their opinion on the likelyhood that it will not occur.

In my opinion if peak oil doesn't occur we'll probably go on degrading our environment until some other constraint comes up. My personal favorite is the accumulation of hormone mimicking chemicals leading to serious problems with male vertibrate physiology.
Biofuels: The "What else we got to burn?" answer to peak oil.
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Unread postby cube » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 21:00:36

What if Peak Oil never happens?

Then this website will need to be shut down. :-D

Actually I take that back. If PO never happens then this website can go on indefinitely. But if PO hits then I think we'll all have more important things to do then check up on this website. :P
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Unread postby some_guy282 » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 21:37:00

You know what? You're right. There's nothing to worry about! We'll probably find some new source of energy even better than oil. And when we continue to grow and consume this planet, we'll just move on to the stars and consume the rest of the planet too. Nothing to worry about, move along...

/sarcasm off
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Unread postby some_guy282 » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 22:19:40

Dr. Bartlett's must see video on exponential growth:

http://edison.ncssm.edu/programs/colloquia/bartlett.ram
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

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History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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Unread postby earthman » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 22:21:43

To expect some new technology to replace oil in time reveals the real problem: Us.

New technologies will come but they will not address our real problem: our consciousness.

We were warned by Carter 30 years ago about this very problem. What did we do?

We want to contiune "life as usual," which means massive consumption and waste, regardless of consequences to the entire planet, both people and environment.

The only solution, which I doubt we will take on a collective level, is to change our behaviors and thinking.

Oh well, welcome to the end of the age.

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