[dashster]

The Cornucopians are starting to talk about "Peak Oil", but not from the standpoint of a production limit, but from a demand limit.

Now I am searching for "Peak Coal" and I am hitting mostly articles talking about the same thing - coal production will peak because demand for coal peaks.

So any production limit could end up being labeled a demand peak. But the price should tell the what is occurring and hopefully the mainstream press will take note of it. If demand is declining and you can produce more your price should remain the same or decline. If demand is increasing and you can't produce any more you will get a price rise. It will be interesting to see what someone like Daniel Yergin says if oil production has declined for 5 years and the price is well over $125. Will he label it Peak Oil Demand or will he call it Peak Oil? And if he calls it Peak Oil Demand, will anyone in the mainstream press ask about why the price has risen?

[ralfy]

I think that if peak oil demand takes place, then the global economy has peaked and will start shrinking, if not collapse. But that's also what happens for the downside of peak oil.

[GHung]

I expect economies and societies will find their MOL (minimum operating level) regarding petroleum at some point. They'll have to abandon discretionary uses for those that are considered essential like food production and transportation of more critical goods. The value discovery of oil will be forced and brutally honest. Folks may learn that a little goes a long way when the only alternative is to do things like grow their own food, go without their meds, etc.. Of course, the price of oil will be built into whatever critical goods they decide they must have, rather than into manufactured demand for things they don't need. Every fuel price spike has been, and will be, a dress-rehearsal for what is becoming a more permanent relationship to petroleum. The trick will be preventing markets from holding critical needs hostage to oil, and discovering (accepting) what those critical needs really are..

Whether or not economies can survive the overall decline in net energy remains to be seen. Some are already there, some are in the process, and some are fighting it tooth-and-nail. Those who win the race to the bottom may, indeed, come out the better for it. So-called 'developed' economies may be screwed; so much of their 'productivity' is based on non-critical goods and services, transportation systems are incompatible with anything other than oil, and their growth-based economies have little chance of surviving energy contraction intact. They'll either pay the bill or go broke trying. This process has been underway for some time now. Seems we haven't learned our lesson yet.

Will the energy-meek inherit the earth? That assumes there will be much left to inherit, but those who can get the energy/consumption monkey off their backs now will have an advantage. Oil consumption for me peaked a while back, though I'm still working that problem. Better to put those petro-dollars to work on other things. The money we've saved over the last ten years by significantly cutting our driving more than paid for the last batch of solar panels, our new solar water heater, and then some. It's still oil use, but at least that oil didn't just go POOF; it's embedded in things that will last, and we'll get much of that energy back in other forms.

[Pops]

I think the idea of peak demand is the same as Kopits assertion that the paradigm has changed from demand constrained to supply constrained. He writes that in the past, supply was completely elastic and without limit, the only constraint on production was demand - if there was more demand, the price increased until supply grew and the price returned to a relatively low and constant range.

Now Kopits says, the constraint is on the supply side. The price increases as spare capacity falls and the only thing that can relieve the price is a decrease in demand.

The BAU punditry would be loath to say supply has peaked, that would be to refute all modern, accepted economic theory that money - demand - is the only thing that matters. So rather than admit any supply limit the only alternative explanation for falling consumption is a demand peak.

[Pops]

The other point about the "demand peak" is that defining an oil demand peak in a positive light seems to me and attempt to peg the peak on "desire" rather than "ability."

Remember my old chorus, demand = desire + ability to pay

Implying the peak is one of desire rather than ability puts a whole different spin on the drop in consumption.

[ROCKMAN]

Pops – “Remember my old chorus, demand = desire + ability to pay”. Perfectomundo!!! And the ability to pay calculous is well known: subject to the condition of the economy the amount that can be paid for oil is moderated. And the price of oil moderates how much drilling for new oil can be done. And how much new drilling can be justified determines how much oil is supplied to the market. And how much oil at that price the market can afford is subject to the condition of the economy. A condition which is negatively impacted by higher oil prices leading to even greater desire at a time of diminishing demand.

Dang…almost caught my tail. I’ll try to run faster next time. LOL

Peak desire: I recall as a young man that emotion had the habit, at times, of getting me into deep do-do with the opposite sex. And oddly enough at times when I had both the desire and $'s to back it up the results still weren't very good. Consider China: a great deal of desire for energy and the $'s to back it up. And thus we see their great demand. But, just like me in my youth, will it bring true contentment? LOL

[Pops]

And the ability to pay calculous is well known...

Music to Peak by...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vbb6y8N ... freload=10

[ralfy]

The desired scenario is a steady decline, with an emphasis on basic needs. But if it is the case that the global economy is dominated by a financial elite and control of resources achieved through military forces (whose primary goal is to ensure "security," then other scenarios may have to be considered.