[DesuMaiden]

http://www.oildecline.com/

This website has a counter on the top, which calculates how much oil has been used since your visit to the homepage and how much oil has been used so far this year. The homepage makes some very convincing arguments. It says that no combination of renewable energies will make up for the decline of fossil fuels, which has been a consistent point Michael Ruppert and many peak oil people have been saying for years. Let me show you this quote.

“Contrary to public perceptions, renewable energy is not the silver bullet that will soon solve all our problems. Just when energy demand is surging, many of the world’s conventional oilfields are going into decline. The world is blinding itself to the reality of its energy problems, ignoring the scale of growth in demand from developing countries and placing too much faith in renewable sources of power”.

Alternative energies will never replace fossil fuels at the scale, rate and manner at which the world currently consumes them, and humankind's ingenuity will simply not overcome the upper limits of geology & physics.

I rest my case. Michael Ruppert is correct. The collapse of industrial civilization is going to happen, and nothing will stop it. You can only prepare for this collapse.

[Sixstrings]

Gasoline is at a buck seventy a gallon now. USA is #1 on oil and shale and natgas. We're still on the verge of an energy boom that's going to last a long, long time.

I don't see how it's "bugout bag" time, about peak oil. What am I missing?

[DesuMaiden]

I rest my case. Michael Ruppert is correct. The collapse of industrial civilization is going to happen, and nothing will stop it. You can only prepare for this collapse.

Dude, it is not your case. It's our case. The issue is, the topic of discussion, rests on the timing and severity of the collapse. Ruppert mistimed it.

According to Michael Ruppert, the collapse should have happened already. But it hasn't happened yet. But it will eventually happen because the symptoms of collapse are all around us. Just because someone is ignoring the symptoms doesn't mean collapse wouldn't happen.

Most people on this website apparently agree there will be a collapse. But the real debate here is the TIMING and the SEVERITY of this collapse. My predictions are not very optimistic to say the very least. I believe the collapse will start in the 2020s or maybe as early as the late 2010s. Within the next couple of years, we will start to see the collapse of industrial civilization unfold.

[KaiserJeep]

I kinda hate to disappoint you, but as long as nobody presses the nuclear button, I see no reason that the Apocalypse cannot be postponed for over a century of increasingly uncomfortable declining economy, before the infrastructure actually crumbles.

BAU has enormous inertia, and the vast majority of people on the globe are heavily invested in preserving BAU without even being conscious of what they are doing.

Sad as it is to contemplate, you will probably work your entire life, then retire, surrounded by your grandchildren, without ever having seen TEOTWAWKI.

[ROCKMAN]

KJ - "I see no reason that the Apocalypse cannot be postponed for over a century of increasingly uncomfortable declining economy". I'll use that to segway into a similar thought: what the hell are some of you folks thinking? Collapse is all around us and has been for years. No, Mel Gibson isn't cruising abandoned highways scrounging for fuel. But folks really need to let go of the Hollywood version of "collapse" IMHO. All of us here have been living relatively comfortable lives during the high oil price period. If we weren't we wouldn't have time to piss away posting here. LOL. Trust me: if you lost your job, home and perhaps your family and were living out of your car the "world" has collapsed. If you've watched tens of thousands of your fellow citizens become collateral deaths as battles have raged over oil producing regions and you're living day to day in a refugee camp the world has collapsed.

Sorta like the difference between a recession (your neighbor looses his job) and a depression (you lose your job). LOL. Much of the "world" has suffered from the scarcity/cost of hydrocarbons since the beginning of the petroleum age. It appears the conversation is focused on folks who haven't suffered from the dynamic...yet. Which is fine and worth exploring IMHO. But we don't have to theorize about the face of "collapse": there are plenty of examples to study right now. Go search "Haiti"...that's as good a place to start as any. I've spent a little time in some classic African hell holes. These are the kinds of apocalypse worth focusing upon IMHO. Some have lived it all their lives already. Some are trying to prepare for it. And many do their best to ignore the possibility. So it's not just a question of "when...not if" it happens but when it happens to different populations on the planet. For many hundreds of millions the time to prepare has long passed. And there are hundreds of millions trying desperately to adjust today. And as we stumble down the PO path hundreds of millions who never thought they would ever have to deal with such situations will wonder why their govt didn't warn/prepare them for that day. For many it will come to pass in years. For a lucky some it will be many decades.

You don't have to worry about Mel. Just keep an eye on your neighbors. LOL.

[KaiserJeep]

ROCKMAN, I'm not doubting what you say, I have seen some turd world countries in my time.

But here in the USA we spend 6% of our income on food, after it is grown and transported with precious oil. I took the usual quick tour through my fruit bowl and found stickers with four different countries of origin, all in the Southern Hemisphere.

I just took a vacation in the MidWest in December, I paid $2.15 for "real" gasoline and $1.59 for E85 "corn fuel", as the natives called it. (I did learn not to trust a flex fuel vehicle with E85 in the tank to start when it is below zero outside.)

When famine starts in the rest of the World, I still expect it to take a backseat to discussion of the Superbowl here in the USA.

When we cross the threshold where food has quadrupled in price, and Americans are paying a quarter of their income for food, people will notice and panic is my belief. I expect that to happen in 20+ years.

At that time I still expect that most Americans will have enough disposable income to adjust lifestyles to deal with the new reality - and EVs will finally surpass liquid-fuelled vehicles in new car sales.

The Middle East will end up a smoking hole in the ground, I have no doubt.

[ROCKMAN]

KJ - Exactly. Some glib journalist pointed out years ago that the US has the richest "poor people" on the planet. IOW where would you rather be poor: NYC or Mogadishu? You've seen truly debilitating poverty. And there are a few places in the US that come close. But your example is perfect: even the poor can still feed themselves nutritiously if they make good choices. I grew up on a steady diet of cheap beans and rice in S La and cane thru just fine. Now for many it's making the choice between which cheap beer to buy. Down the road the choice maybe running the heater/ac vs what they bring back from the grocery.

A world I think few Americans can really contemplate.

[Hawkcreek]

KJ - Exactly. And there are a few places in the US that come close. But your example is perfect: even the poor can still feed themselves nutritiously if they make good choices. I grew up on a steady diet of cheap beans and rice in S La and came thru just fine.

I grew up on the same diet. And when I started college in Hammond, La, my favorite meal was a gigantic platter of red beans and rice, with a sausage link, which sold for $1.79 at a place called Murphy's. It would keep me going all day long.

Now I have plenty of cash, but my favorite meal is still -- yep, red beans and rice.

[Synapsid]

KJ,

"I just took a vacation in the Midwest in December..."

(shakes head, reaches for glass of port)

[ralfy]

FWIW, if some of the effects of collapse include earning less than $10 a day and lacking access to one or more basic needs, then collapse partially took place decades ago for most of the world's population.

[DesuMaiden]

FWIW, if some of the effects of collapse include earning less than $10 a day and lacking access to one or more basic needs, then collapse partially took place decades ago for most of the world's population.

And this will become the reality of everyone on this planet in the near future. The industrialized world is enjoying the benefits of prosperity for longer than usual. Eventually when oil supplies decrease, all of the benefits of industrial civilization will be GONE.

[careinke]

In 1969 an average male worker, (in the US), could support himself and his family on his salary alone. During his "career" he could expect to pay off his mortgage, send his kids to college (so their life would be better than his), and end up with a nice retirement for him and his wife.

Today that reality is essentially non existent. The collapse is here today, we just have not noticed.

[Pops]

I don't think we should confuse the collapse of industrial civilization with the triumph of deregulation, trickle down economics, automation and containerization along with the downfall of collective bargaining in the face of weak labor demand/ offshoring.

I'm sure it has been everything the ownership wanted and more, pretty well the opposite of collapse.

[ralfy]

What we are looking at is essentially the result of flaws in capitalist systems. In this case, we see the eventual move to financing and service industries as manufacturing is outsourced to poorer countries, with more eventually dependent on consumer spending and continued returns on investments, thus necessitating continuous growth.

Increased financial speculation eventually leads to crashes made worse by lack of resources and the effects of pollution coupled with global warming.

[DesuMaiden]

Most people on this website apparently agree there will be a collapse. But the real debate here is the TIMING and the SEVERITY of this collapse. My predictions are not very optimistic to say the very least. I believe the collapse will start in the 2020s or maybe as early as the late 2010s. Within the next couple of years, we will start to see the collapse of industrial civilization unfold.

I'll see you one and raise you about a thousand. The collapse is everywhere: the "Arab Spring", Mexican drug cartels, the coming Greek default, PIGGS, the slow-motion Chinese collapse, ISIS, euro-deflation, QE$, Japan, Ukraine, Murder-City-USA-detroit, peak-oil. Just look around, dude.

Explain how the Chinese economy is collapsing. Please explain.