[sparky]

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for a few years I've been trying to work out the world crude oil export and how it trend
it should be easy but it's anything but
1- the numbers are old , three years late is common
2- I'm talking of the kinda stuff moved by VLCC tankers , or by pipelines trains and trucks
3- producers seems increasingly to consume their crude locally , the political pressure make the price anything but straightforward .
4- internationally transported and delivered crude is the only real measure of reality
5- some producers process their crude at home and export finished products
6- I've tried to folows the shipping but no cigar , some tankers head for floating storage for weeks on end
some actually switch of their transponders and change course to deliver somewhere else

from the EIA and IEA , around 2010 the world producers were exporting 42 millions barrel per day
the trend is down but the recession was going strong then , now it's a bit of a mystery

[westexas]

I think that the only realistic way to track net exports is in terms of total petroleum liquids or total petroleum liquids + other liquids.

I'm tracking the combined net exports from the (2005) Top 33 net oil exporters, those countries that had 100,000 bpd of net exports* in 2005, what I define as Global Net Exports of oil (GNE).

*Net exports = Total petroleum liquids + other liquids production less total liquids consumption.

Here is the "Gap Chart" for 2002 to 2012. The 2013 value was 43 mbpd.



Some normalized values for the (2005) Top 33 net oil exporters, for 2005 to 2012:

[sparky]

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@ Westexas , much obliged , your numbers are very good and match what I could gather
the downtrend is interesting , could be the recession , could be demand destruction
could be fracking , probably all of the above

time will tell

[westexas]

As annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005, GNE rose from 39 mbpd to 46 mbpd.

As annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $55 in 2005 to about the $110 range for 2011 to 2013 inclusive, GNE have been below the 2005 rate for eight straight years, while the Chindia region has--so far at least--been consuming an increasing share of a post-2005 declining volume of GNE.

The volume of GNE available to importers other than China & India fell from 41 mbpd in 2005 to 34 mbpd in 2013.

[sparky]

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so of the 7 millions barrels " missing" let's say three to four would be fracking and tar sands , the rest would be recession or "redeployment" to the West Pac area ,
on the numbers it seems like Europe is screwed , they import less and produce less