Peak Oil News and Message Boards

DesuMaiden wrote:

ralfy wrote:Also, the scrapped cars might be sold to developing economies.

What can you use scrapped car parts for?

To keep other cars on the road, salvaging car parts is big business. I've gone to the "scrappies" from time to time to remove parts from a scrapped car to fit to mine.

They're self service so to speak,

DesuMaiden wrote:

ralfy wrote:Also, the scrapped cars might be sold to developing economies.

What can you use scrapped car parts for?

They are used to make vehicles, etc.

DesuMaiden wrote:

ralfy wrote:Also, the scrapped cars might be sold to developing economies.

What can you use scrapped car parts for?

Repairing cars of a similar type that aren't scrapped and have been damaged in an accident. Car thieves will take a stolen car to a "chop shop" where they dismantle the car and then sell the parts (minus the one that has the vehicle ID number imprinted into it).

Its principal effect was to reduce the price of iron ore from $120/t to $60/t.

Bollocks, the Chinese have been stockpiling Iron ore for the last several years. 6 million cars is a drop in the bucket.

A couple of news reports have recently come out crowing about how China's economy just isn't growing much right now. Well I went and looked up China's car sales for the last several years and this is what I found, yes growth is a little slower than it was in the white hot days of the last decade. However the growth rate is still orange hot compared to the Western old line industrial powers.

Passenger car sales in China,

2008 6,76 Million, 1,69 Million per quarter average
2009 10,33 Million, 2,58 Million per quarter average
2010 13.76 Million, 3,44 Million per quarter average
2011 14.47 Million, 3,62 Million per quarter average
2012 15.50 Million, 3,88 Million per quarter average
2013 17.93 Million, 4,48 Million per quarter average
2014 19.71 Million, 4,93 Million per quarter average
2015 5.31 Million, 5,31 Million per quarter average

2015 numbers are for just the first quarter of the year but I challenge anyone to say with a straight face China is no longer interested in expanding their passenger vehicle fleet and competing for world oil supply. The facts are at their average monthly sale rate in the first quarter of 2015 they will have already purchased more passenger cars by April 30 2015 than they bought in the entire calendar year of 2008.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/2337 ... -in-china/

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I can feel the underlying racism , why should the gooks think like us !
I got news , they are just as dumb and happy consumers as anyone
the wise oriental is an operetta concept
I work with quite a few ( my personal favorites are the Koreans )
a chinese brother came one day with a smile witch could have shamed the moon , when asked if he got lucky last night , he waved his hand in a depreciating manner ,
"yesterday I got meself a merc ! " we duly congratulated the proud owner ,
his ancestors must have been purring with joy ,
and if you think cars are something , the WOMEN are going totally apes-shit on all the fashion and make up
not even the riot squad could stop them when there is the Shangai sales , the middle class shop in singapore ,
the government wives prefers London , New York is SO common !

This point was made here a long time ago: "There is NO way in hell there is enough oil the world for more Chinese cars.".

Of course there's enough oil in t world to fuel the current fleet of Chinese vehicles and a great many more. China currently consumes around 10 mm bopd. OPEC alone produces more than 25 mm bopd. And then there's Russia et al along with the US exporting the refined products from 3 mm boppd. There's more than enough oil to fuel their current demand times 3.

All they have to do is out bid the other consumers for what they need. So far they been doing a pretty good job of doing just that. No reason at the moment to not expect them to keep doing so.

Another point to remember with China is that they are adding to their car fleet, unlike most first world countries where the new car replaces one that is being scrapped!

dolanbaker wrote:Another point to remember with China is that they are adding to their car fleet, unlike most first world countries where the new car replaces one that is being scrapped!

Excellent observation, those nearly 20 Million cars they bought last year minus those destroyed in accidents are all still on the road today and will be for another decade or even two decades. In the USA/Canada/Australia/EU/Japan new cars are bought at roughly the same rate old cars are scrapped, so the total number is quasistable. In China there is pent up demand for about 250 Million cars and they only have about 80 Million total, so unless something changes radically you can expect them to buy another 170 Million cars before things stabilize to replacement rates. Replacement rates will in theory be about 17 Million a year so they are already building more than that. This means once their internal demand is met they will have millions of cars available for export every year entering the world market, and if their discount on cars is as strong as it is on electronics in a decade China will dominate world car manufacturing and export, unless peak oil crashes the world economy.

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the rate of car ownership in developed countries is about 750 per thousand population
China rate is about 60 per thousand , so there is a bit less than one billion motorcar to go
of course while it happen some replacing of the present fleet will take place

that a definite billion of cars ...just for China , India , Brazil , Indonesia and the rest are on a similar trajectory

And lets remember that the growth of ICE's is going to be limited by a combination of improved fuel economy and the availability of fuel. At the moment the increase in the number of vehicles appears too large for improved mpg to offset to a significant degree. At the moment China is able to out bid most other potential motor fuel consumers.

Might be more meaningful to focus on the amount of motor fuel available today and what we might project going forward. If you believe we've reached PO or will shortly it implies we've also reached Peak Motor Fuel to some degree. Backing out that number a tad for the sake improved mpg then a good bit of the future vehicle owners will have to be burning motor fuels that someone else is currently consuming. Short of biofuels (which haven't grown significantly...yet) PO would seem to also imply PMF (Peak Motor Fuels) is upon us.

ROCKMAN wrote:And lets remember that the growth of ICE's is going to be limited by a combination of improved fuel economy and the availability of fuel. At the moment the increase in the number of vehicles appears too large for improved mpg to offset to a significant degree. At the moment China is able to out bid most other potential motor fuel consumers.

Might be more meaningful to focus on the amount of motor fuel available today and what we might project going forward. If you believe we've reached PO or will shortly it implies we've also reached Peak Motor Fuel to some degree. Backing out that number a tad for the sake improved mpg then a good bit of the future vehicle owners will have to be burning motor fuels that someone else is currently consuming. Short of biofuels (which haven't grown significantly...yet) PO would seem to also imply PMF (Peak Motor Fuels) is upon us.

Could be, how is the natural gas supply in China these days? I was reading earlier that China has invested a lot on plants to re formulate Methane into Methanol, and every car in China is required to be M-100 compatible.

sub - I've sure we'll see continuing efforts to develop alternative power sources to drive vehicles. But I suspect much of the gain will on be seen in models generated by folks who don't have a firm grasp on the magnitude and rapidity of the dynamics involved. Maybe if the move towards alt motor energy had begun in earnest 30 or 40 years ago there might be some chance to avoid a gasoline/diesel war in the future. But that didn't happen. Eventually there will be many more ICE vehicles then there will be fossil fuels to power them. The drivers will be those who can capture the volumes they require. The rest of the vehicle will just sit there going no where fast.

Which is exactly where many of the global motor fuel consumers have been sitting for decades so nothing really new for them. The shock will be for those folks who have always taken it for granted that they can fill up anytime they want. And lets not forget our EU cousins who have gotten themselves into something of a trap: they pushed motor fuels taxes high decades ago in order to force economy and conservation. All well and good but those taxes also funded a meaningful portion of their social programs. Should they start being forced out of the market place by the likes of China not only will they be less mobile but those govts will also lose that share of the taxes.

http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-crude-oil ... il-1915983

Well China officially passes US in crude imports. Certainly much has to do with prodigious car use. This is a watershed moment as now the policies and actions of China will be as watched and analyzed as the US in terms of economic and Geo-political trends. Of course this is foreboding in so much as this also signals how we refuse to attempt to wean off of fossil fuels. It is like we now have two US gas guzzler countries.

Tanada wrote:2015 numbers are for just the first quarter of the year but I challenge anyone to say with a straight face China is no longer interested in expanding their passenger vehicle fleet and competing for world oil supply. The facts are at their average monthly sale rate in the first quarter of 2015 they will have already purchased more passenger cars by April 30 2015 than they bought in the entire calendar year of 2008.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/2337 ... -in-china/

Absolutely right. And this squares with the observation that in China there are now quite a few multi-lane highways replacing (relatively speaking) ox-cart trails from not too long ago.

Now, when I ask myself, which uses more oil -- a busy many lane highway or an ox-cart trail, it's not too hard to point to the highway.

This is what just kills me about the green "We won't need oil in just a few years" fairy tale. It's just great that in the first world that better technology, incentives like CAFE standards, and an aging population are contributing to a general (over time) decrease in total miles driven. However, the vast third world, driven mostly by Chindia, VASTLY overwhelms the good news from the first world.

Until we can do a little objective math and at least talk about that -- the hopes for a quick green "fix" to "make oil obsolete" are completely delusional.

Well good but in the meantime limited fossil fuels are being consumed and depleted with the resulting warming effect. Why did not China from beginning of it's economic acceleration some years back develop this railway system and avoided it's already huge car culture.

onlooker wrote:Well good but in the meantime limited fossil fuels are being consumed and depleted with the resulting warming effect. Why did not China from beginning of it's economic acceleration some years back develop this railway system and avoided it's already huge car culture.

Rail doesn't come cheap! You need to be already a wealthy nation before you start building such major infrastructure projects. The national road network is for today, the rail is for tomorrow.

Chances are that the "car culture" will never get anywhere near to that of the US and other carcentric countries.

umm, I do not really agree. First, money has been spent to build national road system and to produce and import all those cars China now has. All these resources could have been used instead to fund the national railway system. Second, I did a little research and in turns out that by looking at cars per capita China in only second to US in terms of cars on road. So they are already there in terms of a significant car culture with the concomitant need for oil. I provide this link to check on cars per capita of different countries. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... per_capita