Notice on this plot the different types of hydrocarbons and the different shapes of their various forecast peaks. Not all hydrocarbons are flowing oil trapped in a nice pressurised (or pressurizable) reservoir. Increasingly what is deemed reserves are not liquid, not flowable, and some are not even the same stuff as conventional oil. Notice how low the peaks and how long the tails of those curves. The reason is simply that it is not possible to produce those reserves as fast.
Post 1998 SciAm article Neophyte Peakers like me (and the pessimistic oil specialists as well) took a monolithic view of oil, that the peak of discovery in the 60's indicated a peak of production in the oughties. Flowing oil from pressurized reservoirs would peak because we had simply ceased to discover more, in other words; you gotta find it before you can pump it.
The eternal abundance crowd on the other hand said higher price would cause investment in exploration and the discovery of another North Slope or North Sea, and just as in the past and we would soon be back to cheap oil.
At this point it is hard to tell which side was more right. High prices have generated some more production but not from some gigantic new discovery of cheap oil, but rather working harder to dredge the remains of known deposits. Granted there have been some substantial discoveries like the sub-salt deepwater but it is not cheap oil and actually is not being extracted even at this historically high average price.
So after 10 years of frantic investment in exploration enabled by that historically high price, the expected result of a new supply surplus has not appeared so the price has yet to come crashing down as forecast. But the supply of flammable liquids has not gone into immediate steep decline either, partially because more things are classed as "oil" (including natural gas liquids which are fracking pretty good) but also simply because all the valves are open. The supply has edged up with the increased price but I think it is becoming apparent all the cheap pressurized conventional oil reservoirs have been found and we won't be saved by some huge new discovery. Meanwhile the economy is still plodding along and hasn't come crashing down under $500/bbl oil prices as the most doomy peakers argued.
I think the lesson should be: the more rigid the forecast the less the probability of it being correct.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)