Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Try this one, it is just for the EagleFord,
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/ ... leford.pdf

Try http://www.oilandgasstatistics.com for better production statistics. With this site it is possible to break down production by state, play and operator.

Sept snap shot

Jan-15 87,007,367.....-3.69%.......2,900,245.57
Feb-15 80,291,710.....-7.72%.......2,676,390.33
Mar-15 91,043,345.....+13.39.......3,034,778.17
Apr-15 85,973,234.....-5.57% .......2,865,774.47
May-15 85,749,600......-0.26% ......2,858,320.00
Jun-15 81,372,930......-5.10%.......2,712,431.00
Jul-15 82,351,260......+1.20%.......2,745,042.00
Aug-15 79,346,604......-3.65%......2,644,886.80
Sep-15 72,849,838......-8.19%......2,428,327.93

Oct Snap Shot

1/1/2015 87,415,540......2,913,851......
2/1/2015 80,864,670......2,695,489......-7.5%
3/1/2015 91,606,871......3,053,562.......13.3%
4/1/2015 86,581,685......2,886,056.......-5.5%
5/1/2015 86,507,632......2,883,588.......-0.1%
6/1/2015 82,275,855......2,742,529.......-4.9%
7/1/2015 83,859,710......2,795,324........1.9%
8/1/2015 81,083,409......2,702,780........-3.3%
9/1/2015 77,288,436......2,576,281.......-4.7%
10/1/2015 74,686,442......2,489,548.......-3.4%

Pops - Your chart emphasizes the point I'm trying to make. The TRRC recognized the lag correction sometime ago which is why they now report production X the oil/NG correction factors that were developed on the type of historical data your chart shows. So on your chart may be the older uncorrected curves based on numbers not using the current correction factor while the 1 or 2 recent curves have had the correction factor applied? If so then you chart is comparing apples to oranges. If so the current production curve is much more accurate at this time then curves from previous years at the same point in time. IOW the current production curve may be subject to very little or no correction in the future. That will depend on how accurate the TRRC correction factors actually are.

Ron - My confusion is what you and Bigmama define as "raw data". If it's the actually monthly data put out by the TRRC it might be more accurate then what has been reported in previous years as I tried to explain above.

Here's the graph of Texas Oil Production, (and the start of the thread):



Perhaps it's time to start the thread "Declining Production in the US".

The EIA reference is:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm

Declining production in Texas? Again?!?!?!

Where will the sine wave of oil production end!!

A graph that cuts off in 2012? Do we see the decline in conventional before unconventional horizontal drilling and fracking kicks in? What do we see? This is a bag of dicks chunk of data.
The only way to handle such a trick bag is to keep the top rolled up and all the wieners inside
and throw it in the dumpster before they start to stink.

Texas rides the oil wave up and down and also shall, as they are the center of our petroleum industry, but asking for comments on data 4 years out of date is like eating leftovers that went into the refrigerator 4 years ago, and all you can see is green fuzzy stuff on top of whatever it was originally.

efarmer you should reopen the graph using "view image" by left clicking on it, it is up to date.

pstarr wrote:The missing left side of the graph is still more interesting yet.

Texas oil production today is nowhere near its real peak in 1972

Thanks pstarr. It's too bad the EIA only gives data from 1981. I sent EIA a question if they still have historical data before 1981 for Texas that's not available in the current Excel download.

Poordogabone wrote:efarmer you should reopen the graph using "view image" by left clicking on it, it is up to date.

Thanks Poordogabone. Next time I'll resize the image a little smaller.

pstarr wrote:The missing left side of the graph is still more interesting yet.
Texas oil production today is nowhere near its real peak in 1972

While I wait for a response from the EIA (2-3 working days), I did come across the Texas Railroad Commission's website that shows Texas did produce around 1,263,412 bbl in 1972.
TRC data

Just a little while ago I received an email from the EIA regarding Texas oil production prior to 1981. From the email:

Hello:

Thank you for your inquiry to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA). (I had asked: "Does the EIA have crude oil production data for Texas prior to 1982?")

Yes, at:
http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/seds-data ... Production
See links to files at right.

I hope this information helps. Please contact us again if you need additional assistance with energy data and statistics.

So I clicked on the link that allowed me to DL a data set but it only went through 2014 and was not monthly data, but annual data. Nevertheless, I plotted those data and got a curve that looked very similar to the graph pstarr posted which shows Texas peaked in 1972. I could calculate the 2015 total from the other data set I used for the graph I posted, but that would take a little time.

I think it's kinda cool that the EIA representative was so prompt with a reply!

pstarr wrote:Peakoiler it is nice to see a US government organization respond promptly, courteously and accurately. Contrary to republican partisan dogma.

Would it be fair (in YHO) to say the 1972 Texas peak will hold? Forever? How likely is it that 5D seismic will finally find that humongous pool of nougaty abiotic oil that elevates/floats Houston above the rest of us?

I was impressed with the EIA's great customer service.

To answer your Q above: No, I don't think the 1972 peak will be exceeded. My crystal ball doesn't always work, however, and a new peak might be reached, and if so, it won't be for long, probably shorter than the '72 peak.

I think I will just stay with the monthly data set which I referenced in the initial post, since that shows the most recent data.

Perhaps the ROCKDOC can weigh in on your question, since he's closer to the front lines than I am.

PeakOiler wrote:Correction: Perhaps the ROCKMAN can weigh in on your question, since he's closer to the front lines than I am.

Apologies. My mistake on your handle.

pstarr wrote:The missing left side of the graph is still more interesting yet.

Texas oil production today is nowhere near its real peak in 1972

As long as you consider "nowhere near" like within 8%?

Seems pretty near to me. A little "carried away" there Mr Pstarr?

pstarr wrote:Would it be fair (in YHO) to say the 1972 Texas peak will hold? Forever?

It wouldn't have held at all if prices had stayed up. But too much oil wrecked that, damn the industry for reversing all those production declines!!

But paying <$2.00/gal for travel this holiday weekend?

PO et al - Yes...Nice that the EIA responded. Even nicer had they noted that it doesn't track oil production in Texas. The only credible source for that data is the Texas Rail Road Commision. And the 1971 date is a function of when more detailed records were kept. But somewhere there's a fairly accurate estimate going back decades...I'll look for it later. But a number of times I've mentioned the Texas field I'm redeveloping wth horizontal wells: it began producing in 1946 and I can pull up every years production from then until 3 months ago from the private data base Drilling Info. Easier then pgetting it out of the TRRC data base. Three mouse clicks and I get an Excel spreadsheet with production broken down monthly.

PO - Here you go: Texas yearly oil production since 1935.

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/oil-gas/rese ... ince-1935/

Notice a couple of facts that will surprise many. First, yes a lot of new production in the last 8 years. Pushed the PER WELL AVERAGE RATE all the way up to 14.2 BBLS OF OIL PER DAY! Nice but not nearly as nice as when it peaked at 22.4 bopd in 1946. This happened after mucho numerous convention fields were discovered.

As far as total yearly production in 1972 we hit the all time peak at 1.26 million bbls compated to 1.00 in 2015. Which is what we produced in 1952 AND 1953. And the 5.2 million bbls we produced in the 10 year period starting in 2006 rather pales in comparison to the 13.5 million bbls we produced in the 10 year period starting in 1966.

The reality of the actual numbers might be something of a shock for those who have been taken in by the rhetoric of the spinmeisters, eh? Perhaps the FACTS presented will help some understand bettert how Hubbert developed his projection of peak production of the KNOWN TRENDS at the time. And compared to the 14 bopd per well we produced in 2015 the 20+ bopd per well we produced in the early 70's seems to indict he knew what the f*ck he was talking about, eh? LOL.