Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day
Posted: Sat 28 Jun 2014, 22:06:10
Let us take a little trip down Memory Lane to find out what, according to the doomers, was supposed to happen with oil production in Texas. It was supposed to be the poster child of depletion, and everything!
Back in 1999, according to this, the following was supposed to be the trajectory of oil production in Texas. It was supposed to be all downhill!
Then over on The Oil Drum we have doozey's such as this, in which production in Saudi Arabia, the North Sea or any other place of interest is projected based on what has happened in Texas. I wonder if those same people are willing to maintain that line of reasoning today!
And this
And so on, ad infinitum. Down, down, down it was supposed to go. A new peak was impossible!
And yet ... Texas is now only 400K barrels/day from its all-time record! This wasn't supposed to happen!
Texas oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day
And the doomers have had the nerve to ridicule the Cornucopians.
Back in 1999, according to this, the following was supposed to be the trajectory of oil production in Texas. It was supposed to be all downhill!
Then over on The Oil Drum we have doozey's such as this, in which production in Saudi Arabia, the North Sea or any other place of interest is projected based on what has happened in Texas. I wonder if those same people are willing to maintain that line of reasoning today!
westexas wrote:Based on the Texas model, one could argue that higher prices cause oil production to fall. By the way, note that the North Sea, since 1999, has shown declining crude oil production in response to a generally rising price environment.
In reality, Texas and the overall Lower 48 had simply consumed more than half of their recoverable reserves, based on the mathematical Hubbert Linearization (HL) model.
And this
westexas wrote: In the real world, I think that the approach works because after decades of drilling in a given region--Texas; Saudi Arabia and now the world--there aren't many surprises left.
Here in Texas, the method predicted the peak of production (in 1972) within two years (assuming that peak production is at 50% of Qt). Texas peaked at 54% of Qt.
And so on, ad infinitum. Down, down, down it was supposed to go. A new peak was impossible!
And yet ... Texas is now only 400K barrels/day from its all-time record! This wasn't supposed to happen!
Texas oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day
And the doomers have had the nerve to ridicule the Cornucopians.