Interest in the Duvernay has increased because of its close proximity to the bitumen fields around Fort McMurray. Condensate, because it has a very limited capacity to produce transportation fuels (about 7%) has a limited market. The market that pays the best price is as a diluent to produce dilbit, which allows the extra heavy bitumen to be transported by pipe. Over half of the condensate used for making dilbit now comes from the Eagle Ford, which is 2000 miles away. The Duvernay is 200 miles away, and the transportation saving will amount to $15 - $20/barrel.
The Durvernay will obviously be able to supply the tar sands with diluent for as long as they remain operational, and very competitively with any present US supply. But, how will this affect US shale development, that has been able to buzz along because it held a captive market in Canada? Also, what will the Durvernay producers do with 433 tcf of NG that has to come along with the condensate? 433 tcf of NG is enough to supply the entire US market for 16.5 years.
The gas will be shipped, and it will be shipped south. There is nothing to prevent a flood of Canadian NG from arriving at, and dominating the US market.
"Encana CEO Randy Eresman admitted as much at the company’s annual meeting in Calgary last week when he suggested the company could give away the gas and still make money on the liquids."
The US shale industry is likely to be looking at a serious hit over the next few years!
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/