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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postPosted: Sat 14 Feb 2015, 22:41:58
by copious.abundance
copious.abundance wrote:Abundance aplenty. Mass quantities of plenitude. Billowing founts of wholesome goodness. :)


Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Sun 15 Feb 2015, 09:46:05
by Tanada
The Sierra Club has weighed in on the issue, and got Edward James Olmos to narrate it for them.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Sun 15 Feb 2015, 10:13:12
"Abundance aplenty". Yes indeed. According to the latest numbers the boom in the Marcellus has required us to import only a net 141 bcf in Nov 2014 (a 40% increase from the previous March). Maybe some day if this booming "abundance" continues the US will produce more NG then it consumes and we won't have to import the balance. USA! USA! USA! LOL.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Sun 15 Feb 2015, 18:35:48
by copious.abundance
Um, Rock, if you look at the actual data you'd notice imports have been going *down* since 2007:
And 99.9% of those imports come from Canada ... which practically doesn't even count since it's basically just a proximity/convenience issue.

And we're even exporting more - though maybe that, too, topped off a couple years ago:

And both those numbers are dwarfed by total consumption. Total consumption in November was 2,375,309 million cubic feet.

Imports were 227,536 million cubic feet (9.6% of consumption) and exports were 113,258 million cubic feet (4.8% of consumption). So the net imports represent a whopping 4.8% of total consumption. We're basically self-sufficient already.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Sun 15 Feb 2015, 18:57:03
copious - Mucho thanks for backing up my post. "So the net imports represent...4.8% of total consumption. We're basically self-sufficient already." Self-sufficient if you're not the 1 in 20 NG user who would be sitting in the cold right now if the US weren't a NG importer.

"...basically self-sufficient". A wonderful phrase...right up there with being "a little pregnant". SPINNNNNNNNNN. LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Sun 15 Feb 2015, 19:17:41
by copious.abundance
As I said, the only reason why we import anything all is a convenience factor from Canada. Some consumers happen to be closer to Canadian sources than US sources, so they import it from the Canucks instead of using domestic sources. We even had this discussion not too long ago, if I recall.

Do you have any doubt that if the northern border of the US were a sea instead of the landmass known as "Canada" that that 99.9% of our imports sourced from Canada would come from domestic sources instead?


The spin here is coming from someone who refuses to acknowledge that importing a mere 4.8% of consumption, almost all of it from a neighbor whose imports exist only from mere convenience, constitutes defacto self-sufficience. I'm not even sure why you think net imports of 4.8%, almost all of it from a neighbor whose natgas gets imported out of sheer geographical convenience, represents some sort of failure of the entire US shale gas industry. :roll: :badgrin:

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Mon 16 Feb 2015, 11:56:56
Speaking of the Marcellus: the latest word from the EIA:

The MS rig count has been fairly flat for the last 2.5 years thru Feb 2015: about 105 rigs with a dip below 90 in early 2013. And during the last year the rate of increase in production from new wells per rig has improved a bit but nothing like the big gains between 2012 and the end of 2013. And that was after the rig count plunged from 140 to 110. That indicates probably longer laterals and better identification of the sweet spots.

The good news: production from new wells in the last year increased by 0.79 bcf/day. The bad news: production from older wells decreased 0.61 bcf/day. So despite some good drilling results in 2014 the net gain was only 0.17/bcf/day. That represents only a 1% increase in net production. So even if the rig count in the MS doesn’t drop it looks like the days of big production increases have passed. Now it looks like the drilling pace will have enough trouble just keeping the gross production from falling.

Time will tell but we may be at Peak MS…at least until NG prices increase significantly.

BTW: the US consuming more NG then it produces is not spin: it's a cold hard truth some refuse to address.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Mon 16 Feb 2015, 19:24:34
by copious.abundance
ROCKMAN wrote:BTW: the US consuming more NG then it produces is not spin: it's a cold hard truth some refuse to address.

Please explain to me why US natural gas producers domestically producing 95.2% of US consumption represents a failure of said producers? And please explain to me why the chart below also represents a failure of US natural gas drilling companies? Thank you.


Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Oct 2017, 04:57:11
by Tanada
Lancashire For Shale yesterday held a very successful briefing to an audience of interested parties, on the benefits of how shale gas and manufacturing can grow together to create more jobs and secure our future.

The event, held at Burnley Football Club, included four speakers, a short Q and A session and highlighted that Lancashire has a very significant manufacturing sector, including being number 1 in the UK for aerospace and advanced manufacturing, as well as a growing energy and environment cluster, employing 41,000, supported by four Enterprise Zones (the only county in the UK to have four).

A major conclusion from the presentations was that a thriving shale gas industry in the county would help to boost Lancashire’s economy and position our energy industry companies as a new centre of excellence. Lancashire could be the focus of the next industrial revolution.

Furthermore, a successful Lancashire shale gas industry could create new supply chain opportunities for local manufacturing and engineering companies, as well as encouraging greater investment in these vital sectors.

Francis Egan, CEO of Cuadrilla welcomed guests and emphasised that: “We are making significant progress with the drilling of the two wells at our shale gas exploration site in Lancashire. Whilst the industry is still at an early stage, we continue to put local suppliers first wherever possible and are proud to be employing local people. The future opportunities for Lancashire manufacturing and engineering businesses are considerable as the shale gas industry grows”.

The meeting then watched a video featuring Katie Klaber, a leading energy consultant in the USA, and the former CEO of the Marcellus Shale Coalition, an organisation at the forefront of bringing together all the components of the shale gas value chain in America’s leading shale gas producing area.

She commented: “The shale gas industry and its supply chain really took off here in the Marcellus region in Pennsylvania after 2009. Before then, we produced around 25% of our own gas from conventional wells, now, after just about a decade, we produce 25% of our entire nation’s gas, so that gives you some idea of the scale of it here.

“There are a lot of opportunities for local manufacturing and engineering firms, for instance making tanks for water storage and other fabrication. And then there’s all the ongoing maintenance. It’s much more cost-effective to use local suppliers.

“Shale gas here has boosted the manufacturing economy more broadly by making energy more secure and affordable. It’s also encouraged the reshoring of some manufacturing capacity that had gone abroad, and that’s had a knock-on benefit. There’s no doubt it’s been responsible for billions of new investment.”

The next speaker, Miranda Barker, CEO East Lancashire Chamber of Commerce, added: “To date, over 500 companies have registered for the Shale Gas Supply Chain portal at and contracts worth approximately £3 million have been tendered, giving plenty of opportunities for local suppliers to benefit from shale gas exploration.

“The revised online site is a major engagement tool for local businesses. This is because the new supply chain portal enables them to register their interest in the shale gas industry, specifying their areas of expertise and qualifications. The site also reflects the latest developments with the exploration programme and the quality and safety standards required.

“Business opportunities and invitations to tender will be updated on a regular basis and will ensure that millions of pounds of future spend remains in the county, supporting local jobs.”

Final speaker was John Baldwin, Managing Director, CNG Services Limited, who informed the audience that: “The biomethane sector is a great analogue for what UK shale gas could one day be.

“Britain has a growing biomethane industry, taking energy from crops, farm slurry, sewage sludge and food waste, and turning all that into natural gas through a process of anaerobic digestion. The gas can then be used to generate electricity on site or be injected into the gas grid.

“Delivering growth has only been possible with the development of an accompanying supply chain. The industry has been built on the support of UK manufacturing and engineering companies and it’s very easy to see how a successful shale gas industry will create similar opportunities for equipment manufacturers and engineering suppliers in Lancashire.”

A detailed questioning of the speakers then took place. ... -together/

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Oct 2017, 06:39:09
by Newfie

From what I observed in the shale fields of PA, the companies came in and brought much of their work force wth them. Motels did well, a few new. They hired local guys to drive water trucks and such. Quarries and excavators did well building pads. Roads got tore up, driving was dangerous with convoys of trucks running. Guys with leases got a shot of cash. So yes it helped he local economy.

But now that construction is slowing down all those out of own trucks are gone. Roads returning to normal. The construction jobs were temporary. The pads not. Not everyone got a lease or extraction payments. Some folks did well, others not so much. I sense a fair bit of disappointment. Buyers remorse?

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Oct 2017, 08:44:35
by coffeeguyzz
The county of Susquehannah, PA, has about 44,000 population.
One company operating there, Cabot, has disbursed just over $1 billion in royalty payments over the decade timeframe that they've been producing there.
This is in addition to the $500 million paid for leasing rights.

Pittsburgh could be one of the wealthiest cities in the world if they would encourage development in their area like Allegheny county airport is doing.
The next wave of growth - led by Shell's cracker - will be followed by an even bigger resurgence as evidenced by Foxconn's multibillion dollar plant in Wisconsin.

The massive build out of huge CCGT power plants will provide dirt cheap electricity, further attracting a wide array of industry.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Oct 2017, 11:26:50
by rockdoc123
It's probably worth anyone who is interested in this topic reading the Annual Energy Outlook report regarding gas. you may have to go to the main page to download the report.

Key points are US export of natural gas via LNG is projected to increase rapidly over the next few years with new terminals being set for commissioning starting in 2018. This will drive continued demand for US natural gas. Prices overseas currently are a lot higher and this allows companies to take advantage of relatively low operating costs and relatively high sales revenues. At the same time even though gas imports from Canada are seen to decline the US will end up being a net importer of natural gas until 2040. But this makes some sense if natural gas prices in North America don't rise due to abundance given Canadian gas can be imported at a lower price than that received for exported LNG. A number of years ago the company I was with did a global analysis of LNG markets (we were heavily involved in SE Asia where this was always a question regarding supply/demand and the price that could be achieved in Japan. The result of that study was that all countries with large natural gas endowments would eventually seek to tap markets overseas where natural gas was not in abundance via LNG exports. At some point, this would result in a global gas market not dissimilar to what we see with oil and the predicted price (taking into account estimates of recoverable gas from around the world) would be in the $6.50 range. This would, in turn, raise the price of natural gas in North America given companies would export more and more until they found the right price point differential in North America.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Oct 2017, 13:53:55
by coffeeguyzz
... and a brief follow up to rocdoc's post ... Historically, LNG plants would require decade - long contracts from prospective customers, with prices tied to Brent/WTI, before these hugely expensive liquification trains would be built.
Now, the US is flipping this model completely on its head with virtual spot pricing being offered tied to HH and flexibility to the point ships at sea are re-directed to other ports.

Reliance Industries, from India, has commissioned a brand new fleet of half dozen ships designed and built to ship liquefied ethane from Morgan's Point to their new cracker in India.
They say that using ethane, even though it is liquefied and shipped halfway around the world, will STILL produce $300 million per year profit over naptha based feedstock.

For the foreseeable future, the US is in an enormously favorable position with such an abundance of low cost feedstock for both manufacturing and power generation.

This is one reason competitors are pulling out all the stops to stymie these developments.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Oct 2017, 15:12:50
"...and built to ship liquefied ethane from Morgan's Point...". Just a bit of trivia: Morgan's Point is one of Rockman's favorite fishing spot on Galveston Bay. More important it also a very busy spot for container exports as well as cruise ships.

Building a multi $Billion LNG facility withing long term contracts with a fixed pricing schedule sounds rather risky to me. I suspect it would also seem so to the bankers. Investors, OTOH, with fantasies of huge returns might not. Chenier lost $billions by building an LNG IMPORT facility without long term purchase contracts. And has now invested more $billions converting into an export facility.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Oct 2017, 17:40:34
by coffeeguyzz
Most recent EIA ethane exports for July show record breaking 201,000 bbl/day. When Mariner East 2 is in service in a few weeks, exports should skyrocket out of Marcus Hook with ME 2 capacity being 275,000bbl/day.
Propane exports are 1 million bbl/day and should double in the very near future.

I don't think that the general public is aware of the size of these numbers as well as the speed with which it is all taking place.

Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Oct 2017, 19:23:18
by AdamB
coffeeguyzz wrote:I don't think that the general public is aware of the size of these numbers as well as the speed with which it is all taking place.

They aren't. Peakers aren't. They keep pretending that the difference between US production and total imports is consumption, and ignoring the kind of export powerhouse the US is becoming in refined products. Doing what we do as well as anyone...manufacturing!!