pstarr wrote:C8 wrote:to me, this whole plateau thing is creating the time and desire to fully develop alts (BTW- I include natural gas in those alts as many vehicles are switching over). 5 years ago PO was mainly based on the hard quick landing scenario- that is becoming less and less likely. if nothing else- our energy sources seem to be expanding since then (methane ice, thorium, etc.) we may have over 50 ways to get energy in the nest 10 years
I cannot see anything but checkmate and eventual obsolescence for PO as it is linked to oil only. I think a broader concept is necessary (maybe energy scarcity- ES or Peak Energy PE)
I see mostly peak-oil debunking in your arguments, and little response to data, context, facts. You have dissed pops with a supercilious image and little more than
argument by assertion: where is the time-line/trends for alt fuels replacment?
Endless claims for ultra-deep pre-salt, tight-shale, NG condensates, undiscovered resources, corn ethanol, biodiesel, EV, hydrogen fuel cell, thermal depolymerized turkey guts, green river shale oil, saturnian methane, methane clathrate, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generations misincampthus/algae/cellulosic blah blah blah come and go. Yet none have taken us off the 10-year plateau. Show me the TRENDS to support SUBSTITUTION. I contend they are far and few between.
It is clear that PO, a geologic event, will not play out in an American TV/net/financial time frame. That was intent of Pop's graph, to show that blind perspective -- conditioned by quarterly reports and infotainment diversions -- has nothing to do with the the planetary perspective, the slow-mo reality playing out in earth-time.
Pstarr wrote: I see mostly peak-oil debunking in your arguments, and little response to data, context, facts. You have dissed pops with a supercilious image and little more than [i]argument by assertion: where is the time-line/trends for alt fuels replacment?[/i]
The image was in fun and totally lighthearted, the "dissing" is all in your mind, the image was of a wrestler holding another wrestler in a headlock, it dramatized what I believe was his point, it didn't attack it, it just dramatized it!- Pstarr- I think you could use some light hearted fun, I notice that you read too much into too many comments by posters on this site! that's not emotionally healthy. (FWIW- I remember Pops posting an image of a dogs butt when giving his opinion of somebody's view, so I think HE knows how to have fun). the fact that is was deleted is sad- it was just funny and light hearted.
re: your other points-
The trends of:
natural gas increased use in vehicles
increase installation of renewables
nuclear growth (especially in China)
have all been well documented on PO.com, I am assuming I am talking to a well educated audience- nobody else seems to dispute these trends. Do you?
As far as charts? This is silly- the chart of US oil production looked like it was going straight down 5 years ago, now what a change! Did you predict that chart to change like that Pstarr? can you show me that you predicted this somewhere that I can verify?
What does a historical chart tell you Pstarr? It tells you history! that's all. I could show you charts of renewables that make it seem they are growing exponentially and will dominate in just 20 years- but that's not reality. I can show you charts of Chinese nuke growth that will show you it will be their only source of power in 30 years. get real- charts are helpful but things change fast and the past is not the future- that belief is what smashed the credibility of so many PO "experts".
I am asking a simple theoretical question: is the plateau allowing PO to become obsolete someday soon (10-20 years) by giving other energy sources (including natural gas!) the ability to gear up and go prime time? I am not a doomer or corny, I am not interested in anybody's hurt feelings due to their
primitive tribal identification as a corny, Peak Oiler or doomer-
I think charts have a limited value in this debate, the speed of the installation of renewables and nukes, the speed of natural gas growth seem to raise the possibility that a nation can transition to new energy sources far faster than the 30 year time span that most people seem to believe is required
just because that's how long it took historically- this is the big mistake many (not all) Peak Oilers keep making-
the past is not the future.
I just want to know others views on the subject. I am very open minded- in fact, I can see advances in ocean oil drilling that cause an oil production boom and crash prices so that alt fuels collapse! Please don't view me through a primitive "them" vs. "us" lens- share your views. I am sure you have interesting views.