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Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd????

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Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd????

Unread postby misterno » Mon 27 Feb 2012, 17:58:54

Below is an article that says SA increased the exports to over 9MMb/d. So add that to their local ever increasing consumption of 2.02MMb/d and you get 11.02MMb/d of TOTAL PRODUCTION. 8O :shock:

Am I doing something wrong here? Can someone confirm my math?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi- ... k=obinsite

--------------------------------------------
The newswire, citing unnamed industry sources, said that Saudi Arabia had increased exports to just over 9 million barrels a day last week, compared with an average of about 7.5 million in January. Reuters said it wasn’t clear if the export numbers were the start of a longer Saudi supply addition or a temporary move.[/quote]
------------------------------


Here is the article that confirms Saudi Arabia's domestic oil consumption rose to 2.02MMbd

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArti ... ber350.xml

So if you add exports to domestic consumption, you are getting the total production which is 9+2=11MMbd

But how can this be possible? SA's november 2011 production was only 10.04 Mmbd, how is it possible to increase production so fast in just 2 months?
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 02:10:33

Welcome to the world of BS journalism and make believe numbers. KSA production is something that is difficult to grasp and most all numbers you will find are "estimates". Be VERY CAREFUL about what you read, there is a lot of self research that needs to go into finding the larger picture regarding SA oil production. Its been a state secret for a long time.

With a little delving into the topic I came up with this chart, it considers several different sources and is probably pretty close to being accurate within a few hundred thousand barrels per day...


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JcNYtxMXe34/T ... .29+AM.png
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 03:15:44

Reuters reported the numbers are pretty reliable, and came up with the same 11 million barrel figure. But it is unclear if they will be able to sustain that level, it's only been about a week thus far.

Saudi Arabia has repeated publicly it would prime its pumps to meet any shortfall in exports from fellow OPEC member Iran.

Industry sources told Reuters on Friday the Kingdom had boosted exports to just over 9 million barrels per day last week, compared with an average of about 7.5 million bpd in January, although it was not clear if the export numbers were the start of a longer Saudi supply addition or a temporary uptick.

"Those export numbers are very reliable but they're only for a week so they don't tell you whether or not they're going to sustain these levels," said one industry source.

If Riyadh were to maintain exports at 9 million bpd it would imply record volumes from OPEC's leading producer of 11 million bpd, up more than a million bpd from last month. Saudi currently is using about 2 million bpd domestically.

Other sources at oil companies who buy Saudi crude said that Riyadh was offering extra oil both in addition to existing long-term contracts and on a one-off "spot" basis.
U.S., Saudi maneuver to contain Iran oil market threat
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 04:23:30

The probability that this "extra" oil came from storage is IMHO very high. I frankly doubt they have the immediate capacity to go above 9mbpd. lets see what happens over the next few weeks and months. I'd be interested in what oil movements says about this.
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby Kristen » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 06:52:58

Don't forget there is talk of using the SPR to lower prices! is that not a cry of desperation?
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby misterno » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 10:57:12

well that means reuters is acknowledging a new record in oil production in KSA which is 11MMbd

who knows maybe that can push it to 15MMbd if they want to. Interesting times. And all that talk about "Ghaffar oil field hit the peak" goes down the drain. Or maybe they had new oil fields producing to make up for the loss production in Ghaffar. Who knows?
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 16:33:49

AirlinePilot wrote:The probability that this "extra" oil came from storage is IMHO very high.

This is ALWAYS the lame excuse cited by peakers for any increase in Saudi production. Even if it were true, it tells you that production sometime in recent the past was HIGHER than advertised, and the oil was simply put into storage rather than sold and shipped. Ultimately it makes NO DIFFERENCE in a longer-term rolling average of Saudi production: They might have produced 1 million more bpd sometime last year or the year before than was advertised, and are shipping it out only now.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 28 Feb 2012, 17:06:44

misterno wrote:well that means reuters is acknowledging a new record in oil production in KSA which is 11MMbd

who knows maybe that can push it to 15MMbd if they want to. Interesting times. And all that talk about "Ghaffar oil field hit the peak" goes down the drain. Or maybe they had new oil fields producing to make up for the loss production in Ghaffar. Who knows?
I don't think they could go to 15MMBD with their current infrastructure, nor that the extra oil is coming from Ghawar. Saudi Arabia announced their maximum production was 12.5 MMBD. And much of the new production is heavy sour crude, not the light sweet stuff that Ghawar or Libya produce. The increase in heavy sour crude produced is widening the gap between light sweet crude, which is in high demand and short supply, and heavy sour crude, which is in low demand and high supply.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is nearing its comfortable operational production limits and may struggle to do much to make up for shortages that arise from new sanctions imposed on Iran by the West, Gulf-based sources said.

The kingdom, now pumping just under record rates of 10 million barrels per day, has poured billions of dollars into its vast oil fields, which on paper should ensure it has the ability to ramp up to 12.5 million bpd.

Long-standing oil policy by Riyadh, the heavyweight in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), sets aside some 1.5 million bpd as protective spare capacity.

But industry sources said pumping anywhere near the declared production capacity might involve extracting heavy crudes the market might not want. It would also be difficult to sustain higher rates for lengthy periods. "There is very little unused capacity in the Gulf," said an oil official in the region.

"Saudi Arabia could comfortably manage an extra 500,000 barrels a day or so and, if pushed, could go up to 11 million (barrels a day)." A steady rate beyond 10 million bpd would offer immediate relief to world oil markets, but it would take the kingdom's production to untested levels. Saudi officials are confident, however, of achieving higher flows. "Saudi Arabia can easily make 1 million to 1.5 million (barrels per day) available," a Saudi source said about output beyond current volumes.
Saudi Oil Output Nearing Capacity Limit

Older articles, before the recent supply increase:

If only more people liked sour products (think crude, not candy), maybe Saudi Arabia wouldn't have taken an axe to its oil output.

Much to cash-strapped consumers' dismay, the Saudis last weekend revealed that they slashed crude oil production due to what they see as a glut in supplies -- despite painfully-high gasoline prices.

The main reason behind the move, and confusing price action, appears to be a lack of global appetite for the sour blend of crude oil produced by Saudi Arabia and the intense desire for the light, sweet blend produced by wartorn Libya.

“There is a glut of supply of the type of crude that Saudis produce, but nobody wants: heavy crude,” said Phil Flynn, an energy analyst at PFGBEST and a FOX Business contributor.

In an effort to offset the losses from the crisis in Libya, Saudi Arabia sold 2 million barrels of a special blend of crude that attempted to mimic its high-quality counterpart. Unfortunately for the Saudis, buyers were scarce. Saudis produce what’s known as Arab heavy crude, a more sour blend of oil that is harder for Western refiners like Italy’s Eni (E) to clean. There is a greater need for the very high quality light crude oil produced by war-torn Libya.

So it’s not that demand for oil worldwide is too low. It’s that there isn't much desire for blends of crude the Saudis produce.
Sour Demand for Saudi Crude Leads to Output Cut

Saudi Arabia's solo move to boost output is widening the price gap between undersupplied light crude and abundant lower-quality oil, and will force producers to offer their heavy grades to customers at deeper discounts.

Lower relative values for high-sulphur crude hurt most members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and benefit refiners that have the upgrading capacity to process heavy oil into light fuels. Brent, a light sweet crude benchmark, touched a five-week high above $120 a barrel yesterday. The discount for Dubai crude, the Middle East heavy sour oil marker, widened to $7.67 a barrel.

"The sweet-sour spread is going to widen because we are going to have to cope with more heavy crude in a market that needs light sweet grades," said Tony Nunan, a risk manager with Tokyo-based Mitsubishi Corp.

Capacity

Saudi Arabia's spare capacity is mostly of sulphurous crude, of little use for simple refiners who need lighter grades to substitute Libya's high-quality output.

"There is too much Arab Heavy," said a trader with a refiner that buys Saudi crude in northeast Asia. "Even before the Opec meeting, I have been hearing that they had been offering more barrels to some end-users."
Saudi oil supply increase widens sour price gap
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 01:47:19

OilFinder2 wrote:This is ALWAYS the lame excuse cited by peakers for any increase in Saudi production. Even if it were true, it tells you that production sometime in recent the past was HIGHER than advertised, and the oil was simply put into storage rather than sold and shipped. Ultimately it makes NO DIFFERENCE in a longer-term rolling average of Saudi production: They might have produced 1 million more bpd sometime last year or the year before than was advertised, and are shipping it out only now.


I put forth NO EXCUSE. I posited a reasonable assumption based on following YEARS of Saudi production and the agencies which estimate it. Am i wrong? Sure i could be, but claiming its an Excuse is once again a complete mischaracterization of my post. Refute the idea OF. If you cant, then consider at least it is a possibility. I consider your premise possible also, but when weighing the two against the backdrop of present Saudi trends and projects, I think my thoughts concerning Storage are slightly more plausible than claiming some sort of record production in the face of their older field decline rates.

The only assumption to be made is that they have been storing oil. Your CONJECTURE they did it recently is YOUR opinion and unprovable. Everyone who follows this KNOWS Saudi storage capacity is large.

Yanbu alone had storage capacity of over 280,000 cbm of oil several years ago. Thats about 1.8 mb of oil IN ONE FACILITY. Since 2010 it has been added to towards a planned 500,000+ cbm capacity! Not all oil, but the majority IS planned for it. My current guess is they are somewhere NORTH of that old number. What it is I presently have not found out.

We have no idea how long it has taken them to fill that, it might be one year and it may be ten, We have NO WAY OF KNOWING. It makes your argument fall to pieces. A more reasonable assumption would be that this storage has probably been built up over time and carefully used in time of need, or when price suggests its use. I would submit that is far more plausible than production reaching some record number. Im not closed minded to the argument, but the preponderance of the evidence concerning KSA production SUGGESTS OTHERWISE.

Edit: Yanbu upgrade plan was for 12mb crude storage. No links yet for progress of that upgrade. Was begun in 2010.
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 02:00:55

Ras Tanura has some RIDICULOUS amount of storage. Several links I have read say it is north of 30 million barrels. Even if its only at 20% capacity they could do this for a few YEARS and we might not know it.

An Excuse? For WHAT?
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 03:07:06

Sure i could be, but claiming its an Excuse is once again a complete mischaracterization of my post. Refute the idea OF.

I'm sorry, but I read this excuse so many times it's gotten to be predictable. Every time Saudis increase production some peaker/doomer will say, "Oh, they're just taking it out of storage." :roll: It's not just you, it's ... half this forum. And 3/4 of every peaker on the planet.

I consider your premise possible also, but when weighing the two against the backdrop of present Saudi trends and projects, I think my thoughts concerning Storage are slightly more plausible than claiming some sort of record production in the face of their older field decline rates.

Where did I say that past production which was put into storage constituted record production? Nowhere. Maybe it was, but it doesn't need to be. And it doesn't matter, either.

It's easy to conceptualize: See this chart here? Now, imagine during some of the "valleys" of production the Saudis producing some extra oil (which never shows up in production figure at the time) and putting it into storage, which gets sold on the market at some later time. So, in reality, during those valleys their production was higher than advertised, and during the peaks their production was less than advertised. Ultimately it makes no difference, over the longer-term the amount of production is still the same, it just gets counted at different times than when it was produced.

Image

Your CONJECTURE they did it recently is YOUR opinion and unprovable.

You're yakking away over nothing. I didn't offer a definition of "recent," did I. "Recent" could mean last year, the year before that, or the year before that. It's possible, but I doubt it, that they've got oil that's been sitting in tanks for five years or a decade, but I find that unlikely.

We have no idea how long it has taken them to fill that, it might be one year and it may be ten, We have NO WAY OF KNOWING. It makes your argument fall to pieces. A more reasonable assumption would be that this storage has probably been built up over time ... Edit: Yanbu upgrade plan was for 12mb crude storage. No links yet for progress of that upgrade. Was begun in 2010.

Yeah, and if it was "built up over time," where did they get the oil to fill it? Did the oil come out of thin air? Obviously not. It's impossible to fill a tank with oil that wasn't drilled ... somewhere ... sometime ... so by definition, oil storage in the present means production sometime in the past. So if all this oil has been stored by the Saudis, all it means is that their production figures sometime in the past were higher than all the international agencies have calculated.

And BTW, that Yanbu upgrade represents ... less than 2 days of recent Saudi production. The sizes of the tanks sound big, but when you compare it to their production levels, they're really not all that big. Given that fact, it sounds more like they're used for short-term storage.
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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 03:13:17

AirlinePilot wrote:Ras Tanura has some RIDICULOUS amount of storage. Several links I have read say it is north of 30 million barrels. Even if its only at 20% capacity they could do this for a few YEARS and we might not know it.

An Excuse? For WHAT?

That 30 million barrels represents 3 days of recent Saudi production. Yawn.

If they over-produced by 1 million bpd for just a month, the whole thing would fill up at the end of that month. So your claim of filling it up for YEARS is basically impossible. Unless it's, like, overflowing many times over by now. :lol: The only way that small an amount of storage could be filled for YEARS is if they regularly draw down a lot of the storage too. Which gets back to what I said in my post above about it being used for short-term storage. They probably just put it there until some tankers arrive for delivery, then draw it down, then fill it up again, etc etc.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 03:35:33

OilFinder2 wrote: Every time Saudis increase production some peaker/doomer will say, "Oh, they're just taking it out of storage." :roll: It's not just you, it's ... half this forum. And 3/4 of every peaker on the planet.


The entire point of figuring this out is a lot of us need a bit more proof that this is actually production. Im not convinced and explained in a reasonable way why. Where is your support for it being a supply increase? My whole point was that if they have been storing oil, and most of us here would agree they have been given the size of their facilities, they didnt need to do ANYTHING extraordinary but stash a few hundred thousand b/d here and there over the last several years to come up with this. By implication you said "1mbpd/more than advertised", which suggests record production.

You know what, I expected a reply like this, its really not even worth responding to. I made my point. You made yours. Hopefully others will make up their own minds and reply with some thoughts which add to our general knowledge and grasp of reality.

You are arguing to win the argument not find out what is really going on. You do this more often than not OF. Some of us here are more concerned with THE LATTER.

I suggest you think on that a bit.
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby threadbare » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 11:27:24

The greatest threat the Anglo/American axis of evil faced from Iran was a potential and temporary glut of oil, flooding a market, in a reduced demand environment. This would have caused terrific problems for U.S. banks. Even in an economic environment, where fiat is being trashed and there is a rush into commodities, Iran could have put downward pressure on oil price per barrel, if sanctions hadn't been imposed.

Had this occurred, the Saudis wouldn't have been able to support U.S. banks, in the way they have been. The Saudis take many of the dollars they make from oil and funnel them directly back into U.S. banks. Without their help and support, the economic consequences would have been severe. The reserve status of the U.S. dollar, backed by oil, may not have been sustainable.

Whatever is going on with supply, storage, yadayadayada, has zero, nothing to do with peak oil. Ignore most of the bullshit that comes out of the media, the stats, the utter nonsense, the angels dancing on the head of a pin scholasticism, on this issue. Focus on the economic consequences of an Iran, oil rich, without sanctions and what it had the power to do. They had weapons of ass destruction. And those asses occupy the White House and the boards of directors of oil companies, banks, etc...
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby misterno » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 12:55:36

Here is what I don't understand

We all know that the oil peak price of $147 was reached not because of demand boom but because of speculation. Right now, we have the same speculation going on pushing Brent Oil to more than $125 even though there is huge demand destruction both in US and EU.

Remember; during the price run up to $147, there was a quote from Saudi's saying" we even have a full tanker in the ocean and we were trying to divert to any possible bidder but there was none". This makes sense because they were trying to take a huge profit from the high oil price but they were not able to sell their product because THERE WAS NO DEMAND. In other words, the price was pushed by PAPER DEMAND. Had the price been pushed by PHYSICAL DEMAND, Saudis would be able to sell their product.

So here is my question; how is it possible to bring down the oil price with physical supply when the oil price was not pushed by physical demand but paper demand? 8O

It is impossible. No matter how much you produce and create extra supply in the market, the paper demand which is options/futures/forward/short sale/ would create ARTIFICIAL DEMAND INFINITELY. I read articles about options predicting th oil to be $250.

So no matter what Saudis produced or claimed to produce, peak oil or not, WWIII or not, oil price will and should definitely go up. Unless of course the paper demand is outlawed which is what the world needs.
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby mmasters » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 13:08:16

misterno wrote:So no matter what Saudis produced or claimed to produce, peak oil or not, WWIII or not, oil price will and should definitely go up. Unless of course the paper demand is outlawed which is what the world needs.

It's bound to be after some huge runups. Best make some coin on them before the party is over!
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby careinke » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 13:24:14

AirlinePilot wrote:Ras Tanura has some RIDICULOUS amount of storage. Several links I have read say it is north of 30 million barrels. Even if its only at 20% capacity they could do this for a few YEARS and we might not know it.


It will make a very nice flame if Iran decides to take it out.
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby Wootan » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 13:49:21

misterno wrote:Remember; during the price run up to $147, there was a quote from Saudi's saying" we even have a full tanker in the ocean and we were trying to divert to any possible bidder but there was none". This makes sense because they were trying to take a huge profit from the high oil price but they were not able to sell their product because THERE WAS NO DEMAND. In other words, the price was pushed by PAPER DEMAND. Had the price been pushed by PHYSICAL DEMAND, Saudis would be able to sell their product.

So here is my question; how is it possible to bring down the oil price with physical supply when the oil price was not pushed by physical demand but paper demand? 8O

It is impossible. No matter how much you produce and create extra supply in the market, the paper demand which is options/futures/forward/short sale/ would create ARTIFICIAL DEMAND INFINITELY. I read articles about options predicting th oil to be $250.


For my part, I cannot remember that sentence from SA.

Artificial demand may of course be pushing the price some, but don't forget that oil is a physical product, differing from stocks in that respect. When the tanker arrives at the harbour, someone must take delivery, if you forgot to roll your speculative "artificial demand" future contract, they will dump it in your backyard :o At your expense!
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Re: Saudi Arabia's production increased to more than 11MMbd?

Unread postby Humungus » Wed 29 Feb 2012, 14:54:07

misterno wrote:We all know that the oil peak price of $147 was reached not because of demand boom but because of speculation. Right now, we have the same speculation going on pushing Brent Oil to more than $125 even though there is huge demand destruction both in US and EU.


USA and EU are not alone on the buyer's market. In fact, many in debt loaded USA and Europe are slowly being pushed out from the oil market by demand from countries outside EU and America. Speculators or not, oil available on the export market has shrunk with some 15% since 2005. And there's also this money printing madness from central banks, especially The Fed and ECB, which has pushed prices on commodities and stocks even higher.
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