[JohnDenver]

An interesting phenomenon:

A record 1.6 million barrels a day in American refined petroleum products were exported during the first four months of this year, up 33 per cent from 1.2 million barrels a day over the same period in 2007. Shipments this February topped 1.8 million barrels a day for the first time during any month, according to final numbers from the Energy Department.

Link

The US is exporting 1.6 million barrels a day of gasoline, diesel and other refined products, and still, gasoline and diesel stocks keep rising:



These aren't the sort of statistics you'd expect to see in a case of "demand outstripping supply".

[Specop_007]

If I had to guess I would say the fact our fuel costs are subsidized is causing the US to use less whereas places with subsidized fuel prices really have no reason to use less. The .gov foots the costs.

So while some places still have "low" prices and can use as they want, we pay the full price at the pump. Pure guess though.

[HEADER_RACK]

JD how are the crude oil stocks doing? You make gasoline and diesel from crude don't you? Mind posting up the chart for crude stocks ole boy so we can get a visual?

[DantesPeak]

JD how are the crude oil stocks doing? You make gasoline and diesel from crude don't you? Mind posting up the chart for crude stocks ole boy so we can get a visual?

At the rate crude oil inventories are declining, if trends continue, we only have few more months before refiners don't have enough supply and involuntarily reduce product output.

[HEADER_RACK]

Now those charts look like demand is outstripping supply. I don't care if we have gasoline and diesel coming out the WAZOO!! have to trace it back to it's beginings. The beginings look like they are starting to dip down. It's only a matter of time until Gasoline and other petrol products follow suit.
If your not replacing the core of where your product comes from, you're just living on borrowed time.

[JohnDenver]

If your not replacing the core of where your product comes from, you're just living on borrowed time.

It's irrational to stock up on flour when demand for donuts is collapsing. Particularly when the flour is selling at frothed-up, inflated prices. In retrospect, the reluctance of refiners to stock up was very intelligent. Why stock up at $140, when you can wait and stock up at $120 (or less)?

[TheDude]

Your link needs fixing, JD - add an 'h' at the beginning.

Exports to Mexico are at sustained highs since November:

12626
8666
11064
16413
11048
11237
10494

The amount for February is an all time record. 5 digit volumes were also exported in mid-late 2000 for some reason - don't think it was hurricane activity. Most of Pemex's windfall is going towards propping up subsidies,
and with declining production the need to import more increases.

Your story also ends with mentioning an increase in exports to Canada which the EIA and API admit having no explanation for.



Yes, this is a long term trend upward. There are Limits to Growth, Hoser! About 200kbpd of new production is due to come out of the Oil Sands in next few months, perhaps that will pull them out of the rut.

[Graeme]

In a first, gas and other fuels are top US export

For the first time, the top export of the United States, the world's biggest gas guzzler, is — wait for it — fuel.

Measured in dollars, the nation is on pace this year to ship more gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel than any other single export, according to U.S. Census data going back to 1990. It will also be the first year in more than 60 that America has been a net exporter of these fuels.

Just how big of a shift is this? A decade ago, fuel wasn't even among the top 25 exports. And for the last five years, America's top export was aircraft.

The trend is significant because for decades the U.S. has relied on huge imports of fuel from Europe in order to meet demand. It only reinforced the image of America as an energy hog. And up until a few years ago, whenever gasoline prices climbed, there were complaints in Congress that U.S. refiners were not growing quickly enough to satisfy domestic demand; that controversy would appear to be over.

Still, the U.S. is nowhere close to energy independence. America is still the world's largest importer of crude oil. From January to October, the country imported 2.7 billion barrels of oil worth roughly $280 billion.

Fuel exports, worth an estimated $88 billion in 2011, have surged for two reasons:

— Crude oil, the raw material from which gasoline and other refined products are made, is a lot more expensive. Oil prices averaged $95 a barrel in 2011, while gasoline averaged $3.52 a gallon — a record. A decade ago oil averaged $26 a barrel, while gasoline averaged $1.44 a gallon.

— The volume of fuel exports is rising. The U.S. is using less fuel because of a weak economy and more efficient cars and trucks. That allows refiners to sell more fuel to rapidly growing economies in Latin America, for example. In 2011, U.S. refiners exported 117 million gallons per day of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other petroleum products, up from 40 million gallons per day a decade earlier.

AP

[PrestonSturges]

Let's hear it for The Law of Supply And Demand! See, as prices doubled, supply expanded.

However, the "drill baby drill" strategy seems unlikely to lower fuel costs, so this isn't going to gin up much enthusiasm from the middle class being impoverished by fuel prices.

[Cloud9]

We are simply being out bid for product.

[Pops]

We are simply being out bid for product.

Exactly.

.

[PrestonSturges]

We are simply being out bid for product.

Exactly.

Nobody could have predicted - oh wait, never mind.

[TheDude]

And you read about it at peakoil.com first. I remember graphing the phenomenon of growing US exports back in 2007.

Wonder how much hay POTUS candidates will make of this. Or be suspiciously silent about. Newtmeister says he'll eliminate need for US imports in 2 years, right? Forget the exact details of his laughably naive assertion. Maybe he'll call it Syncrude, too.

[PrestonSturges]

Obama can claim credit for increases in production, while pointing out that increased production isn't going to fix the one thing consumers care about - cost. It's not a winner of an issue for anyone, but it puts the kibosh on "drill baby drill" sloganeering as an energy policy.

[ian807]

Drill more.
Produce faster.
Run out sooner.
Become completely dependent on affordable imported liquid hydrocarbons, if you can get them.

The laws of supply and demand don't think ahead, and there is no such thing as magic (Sorry, PrestonSturges). All we're doing is depleting our supplies of energetically, economically profitable fuels. The best thing we could do is save them for as long as possible until the price is sky high, and *then* start exporting.

Of course, by the time we get to that point, there's a very small window where doing that makes sense. Wait longer and the supply chain collapses make the whole question irrelevant.

[Pops]

"We" don't have anything to do with it.

[Tanada]

I have been searching around this morning for current, or at least recent USA Diesel exports. I am particularly interested because USA diesel inventories are at record levels as seen on this graph, recently released by the EIA.




I am trying to figure out if the projected surplus is due to excess refining yoy or if exports of diesel fuel are actually down substantially. If exports are really falling that much it could be a significant leading indicator for the world economy, along with the Baltic Dry index being so low.

[AdamB]

I am trying to figure out if the projected surplus is due to excess refining yoy or if exports of diesel fuel are actually down substantially. If exports are really falling that much it could be a significant leading indicator for the world economy, along with the Baltic Dry index being so low.

Headed to 4 million barrels a day overall.



Also found another interesting stat, and that is how close the US has come to energy independence over the past few years, on a BTU basis, as compared to a fascination with any single fuel. Not there yet, but it sure looks like the possibility is coming into view.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20812

[Subjectivist]

How much of the surplus is due to the very mild winter? In January 2014 the weather was extremely cold and fuel oil supplies were very tight with high prices, but this last January we got rain as often as snow and diesel/heating oil was relatively cheap.

[Tanada]

I am trying to figure out if the projected surplus is due to excess refining yoy or if exports of diesel fuel are actually down substantially. If exports are really falling that much it could be a significant leading indicator for the world economy, along with the Baltic Dry index being so low.

Headed to 4 million barrels a day overall.



Also found another interesting stat, and that is how close the US has come to energy independence over the past few years, on a BTU basis, as compared to a fascination with any single fuel. Not there yet, but it sure looks like the possibility is coming into view.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20812

Thanks, that is just what I was searching for. So it appears that even with cheap diesel fuel the production rate is exceeding both exports and local consumption. That seems odd, why are the refineries working so hard when their is already an ample supply of both fuels? Perhaps they have empty fuel storage capacity but not much crude oil storage capacity, so by refining more now they are keeping their crude storage from hitting max?