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$200 Oil or Bust?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

$200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby bratticus » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 07:39:24

Will the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby AdTheNad » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 08:16:26

bratticus wrote:Will the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?


I've wondered about this too. With the growing use of oil in Chindia you would think the price wouldn't collapse as far as in 2008, but then the rising prices will probably have some effect over there as well.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby dsula » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 08:21:29

Xenophobe wrote:Volts and Leafs for everyone!

Na, light small vehicles is the better choice. Motorcycle, 2 seater light cars (fiat 500, smart, ford ka, kia). Hauling around 500kg battery which must be replaced every 5 years is not good choice.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby bratticus » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 08:37:21

AdTheNad wrote:
bratticus wrote:Will the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?


I've wondered about this too. With the growing use of oil in Chindia you would think the price wouldn't collapse as far as in 2008, but then the rising prices will probably have some effect over there as well.


Why didn't Chindia's massive consumption keep the price higher in 2008 either?

Chindia hasn't been well lately. Have you been paying attention to what's been going on since Sep 2010? Go look up news about China's trade surplus. There's lots of articles like this:
China’s trade surplus cut in half as [the price of] imports surge
MarketWatch / Feb 14, 2011


China’s trade surplus was $6.5 billion for the month, compared to $13.1 billion in December, the reports said.

Then tell me all about how Chindia will support $200 oil.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby bratticus » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 08:43:08

There will be no $200 oil because the economy will collapse again before that price is reached. Mainstream media will blame the collapse on any number of random events again.

‘Peak Demand,’ Yes, But Not the Nice Kind
By Chris Nelder / Friday, March 5th, 2010


Very simply, when oil got to $120 a barrel it cut into real productivity, and forced the world’s most developed economies to shrink. At $147, it wreaked serious damage. ... the new normal will be cycles of bumping our heads against the supply ceiling, falling dazed to the floor, rising back to our knees, then finally standing, only to bump our heads against the ceiling once more.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Sys1 » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 09:04:25

"$200 Oil or Bust?"

We will have both! :twisted:
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby anador » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 09:06:32

Xenophobe wrote:Volts and Leafs for everyone!


And Hummers apparently... :roll:
@#$% highways
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 09:11:15

My bold prediction is that oil will not hit $200 due to this current spate of above-ground black-swans. We may never hit it if the economy runs off the rails over $150 anyway.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Timo » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 09:40:18

Xenophobe wrote:
bratticus wrote:Will the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?


What have I been telling people! We NEED $250/bbl oil, the sooner the better. Americans must LEARN, and the only way to do that, lacking leadership on the part of our elected officials, is for the market to TEACH us.

Volts and Leafs for everyone!


I'd prefer the Tesla, thank you.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 10:11:54

Timo wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:
bratticus wrote:Will the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?


What have I been telling people! We NEED $250/bbl oil, the sooner the better. Americans must LEARN, and the only way to do that, lacking leadership on the part of our elected officials, is for the market to TEACH us.

Volts and Leafs for everyone!


I'd prefer the Tesla, thank you.


This is what you'll get instead, and you'll LIKE it.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Pops » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 10:52:38

I hate to say never – KSA could go *poof* or Israel could get righteous and incinerate the whole region – but I don't think it would reach $200 at a slow grind.

Of course, I'm also of the opinion the 99ers are, for all intents, out of the job market for good and their elimination means the next rung up on the economic scale is somewhat more immune to food/energy inflation (notice I said "somewhat") meaning, perhaps, they might be able to withstand $200/bbl.

So never say never...
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 25 Feb 2011, 19:46:43

Sys1 wrote:"$200 Oil or Bust?"

We will have both! :twisted:

Why settle for one if we can have both! :-D
Now, seriously I don´t think that we will reach $200, although I think is highly likely we will see $140 or $150.
This are crucial moments that will define the year IMHO, half of Libyan production is off line right now, and the other half is likely to disappear too from the market. This is a trying time for OPEC, they have to made up for this and quickly, not amount of spin will do it, they have to show the goods, otherwise it wil be revealed that the emperor has no clothes, and given the current situation of instability in many of the countries of OPEC, most of the responsibility rest on the shoulders of Saudi Arabia.
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw

You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby bratticus » Sat 26 Feb 2011, 11:12:47

Pops wrote:I hate to say never – KSA could go *poof* or Israel could get righteous and incinerate the whole region – but I don't think it would reach $200 at a slow grind.


A slow grind is so two weeks ago...
Image(click)
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby anador » Sat 26 Feb 2011, 11:23:01

Xenophobe wrote:
dsula wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:Volts and Leafs for everyone!

Na, light small vehicles is the better choice. Motorcycle, 2 seater light cars (fiat 500, smart, ford ka, kia). Hauling around 500kg battery which must be replaced every 5 years is not good choice.


How dare you reply to a censored post! TPTB have decided you must not hear about the personal peak oil solutions being churned out by automobile manufacturers....it might demotivate your sale of peak hysteria to the masses! Bad squirrel, no nut for you!


You know, you used to speak like an intelligent person.

Full of vitriol and incorrect assumptions, but intelligent none-the-less.

Now all I have seen you post is in fits of crazed hysterics advertising products of various sorts.

I would normally just continue ignoring you, but what the hell do you think happens when you shout like a madman trying to sell kool-aid on a street corner? You get your posts removed.

Deal with it
@#$% highways
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 26 Feb 2011, 14:15:29

bratticus wrote:
AdTheNad wrote:
bratticus wrote:Will the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?


I've wondered about this too. With the growing use of oil in Chindia you would think the price wouldn't collapse as far as in 2008, but then the rising prices will probably have some effect over there as well.


Why didn't Chindia's massive consumption keep the price higher in 2008 either?

Chindia hasn't been well lately. Have you been paying attention to what's been going on since Sep 2010? Go look up news about China's trade surplus. There's lots of articles like this:
China’s trade surplus cut in half as [the price of] imports surge
MarketWatch / Feb 14, 2011


China’s trade surplus was $6.5 billion for the month, compared to $13.1 billion in December, the reports said.

Then tell me all about how Chindia will support $200 oil.


Chindia, and all of the third world for that matter, doesn't have its intermediate to long term growth/increasing demand picture disappear because of a short term decrease in China's trade surplus. Give it time - the HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of families wanting motorized transportation as they ascend to the middle class is a trend that seems unlikely to go away anytime soon.

I think far too many folks everywhere have the patience and time perspective of a gnat. Thus the constantly WRONG pictures of doom JUST around the corner on boards like this, for example.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 26 Feb 2011, 15:13:39

eXpat wrote: I don´t think that we will reach $200, although I think is highly likely we will see $140 or $150.


In current (real) dollars, you're probably right (demand destruction will kick in prior to the $200 threshold); however, in nominal dollars, once hyperinflation ensues, $200/bbl oil will seem like a bargain.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Beery » Sat 26 Feb 2011, 15:19:30

anador wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:Volts and Leafs for everyone!


And Hummers apparently... :roll:


I'll stick with my bicycle. That way, all I have to worry about is the price of everything EXCEPT gasoline.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sun 27 Feb 2011, 03:12:37

Beery wrote:
anador wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:Volts and Leafs for everyone!


And Hummers apparently... :roll:


I'll stick with my bicycle. That way, all I have to worry about is the price of everything EXCEPT gasoline.


Sorry the censors keep deleting our conversation Beery. I agree with you about bicycles, but it is a seditious idea, TPTB keep erasing my endorsement of your idea as well. I apologize for their desire to hide these practical conversations.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Adelaidewonderer » Sun 27 Feb 2011, 05:21:01

From memory, when the oil price hit $147 here in australia, the petrol got to about $1.70 a litre here. If Oil was to get to $200 a barrel, I suspect petrol would hit about $2.20. I think most people were feeling it at least a bit back in 2008, but in theory it will probably only add $20 extra (40 litres @ 50 cents extra) to the weekly fuel bill from 2008, which aint too much.

So it may shrink some demand at the fringes, but generally people can wear it. Add that to the fact that supplies are tighter than 2008, and its going to be hard to see too much demand destruction from $200 oil.
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Re: $200 Oil or Bust?

Unread postby Geodesic » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 13:24:49

dsula wrote:
Xenophobe wrote:Volts and Leafs for everyone!

Na, light small vehicles is the better choice. Motorcycle, 2 seater light cars (fiat 500, smart, ford ka, kia). Hauling around 500kg battery which must be replaced every 5 years is not good choice.


I have a 2000 Honda Insight. It gets 60+ mpg. The battery was reconditioned once at a cost of $1000. It's good for another 10-15 years with the charger/conditioner I installed. In other words it'll probably last longer than the car. Many 15 yo Rav4 EVs are still going strong with their NiMH batteries. Let's stop perpetuating the anti-EV propaganda, shall we?

http://www.ccds.charlotte.nc.us/~jarrett/EV/cost.php
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