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THE Natural Gas Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 02 Apr 2013, 10:44:44

Saturday evening Noble Energy began first flow from gas wells of the 8 Tcf Tamar gas field in the Levant Basin, offshore Israel. It is estimated the gas hit the sales meters thirty hours later. Among the notable achievements of the $3.2 billion project are 1) world-class execution - first production in just a little over four years after discovery and two and a half years after sanctioning, 2) the world's longest subsea tieback of 93 miles, 3) the expansion of a world class natural gas basin and 4) a path to energy independence for Israel.
Charles Davidson, Noble Chairman and CEO stated "I congratulate the people of Israel on this transformational achievement, which significantly moves them toward energy independence and away from reliance on imports...The Tamar project is also a technological and commercial milestone for Noble Energy and our partners."

According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netantyahu, "We are taking an important step toward energy independence. In the past decade we have promoted Israel's gas sector and this will enhance Israel's economy and benefit all the country's citizens."
Tamar's first production is just the latest commercial achievement by Noble Energy, which has been operating in Israel for over a decade. Tamar was the world's largest conventional natural gas field discovery in 2009 and the result of a dedicated scientific effort by Noble's team to map the Levant Basin. Concurrently, Noble increased its leasehold position from 600,000 gross acres to 3,000,000 gross acres.
Tamar capacity is designed for delivery onshore of 985 MMcfpd with future expansion of up to 1.6 Bcfpd. Noble is also evaluating a future floating LNG facility for Tamar gas.

Partners in the Tamar gas field include operator Noble Energy (36%), Isramco Negev (28.75%), Delek Drilling (15.625%), Avner Oil Exploration (15.625%) and Dor Gas Exploration (4%).
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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 02 Apr 2013, 11:19:02

Congrats to Noble Energy---job well done.

This should be transformative for Israel. It will be interesting to see how they use the financial windfall and how they transform their transportation and energy infrastructure to use NG. Since much of the world is headed that way soon enough, Israel will be an interesting test case for the use of NG.

One of the first benefits will be that Israel will no longer have to worry about Islamist religious fanatics blowing up the gas-line from Egypt to Israel
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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 02 Apr 2013, 11:41:43

Last I heard the Egypt had stopped shipping NG to Israel but I don't follow that situation too closely. I couldn’t find anything on Israeli consumption but did note that LNG comment. Makes you wonder who they may plan to ship to and how the politics will play into that. And this may be just the beginning: I’ve haven’t seen any speculation on how much more NG may be in the basin but where there’s one big field there should be a number of other fields big and small. The big impact would be if they ever found an oil window out there.

And I don’t think you want to go fishing out by the field. I’ve heard from some folks on the periphery of the project and the infrastructure is heavily protected. Within a certain distance it’s a free fire zone. One can just imagine what a tempting target it would be.
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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 02 Apr 2013, 13:15:32

Last I heard the Egypt had stopped shipping NG to Israel but I don't follow that situation too closely. I couldn’t find anything on Israeli consumption but did note that LNG comment. Makes you wonder who they may plan to ship to and how the politics will play into that. And this may be just the beginning: I’ve haven’t seen any speculation on how much more NG may be in the basin but where there’s one big field there should be a number of other fields big and small. The big impact would be if they ever found an oil window out there.

And I don’t think you want to go fishing out by the field. I’ve heard from some folks on the periphery of the project and the infrastructure is heavily protected. Within a certain distance it’s a free fire zone. One can just imagine what a tempting target it would be.
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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 02 Apr 2013, 15:46:33

Here is some more information on the Israel discoveries. I looked at this area in some detail a few years back when Noble was looking to farmout. Tamar is actually the first of 6 fields discovered to data which Noble has varying percentages in. Tamar is significant in that it holds the record for largest subsea tieback (93 miles in >5500 feet of water). As noted in the article Tamar has now come on stream and will be followed by the Leviathan field which may be developed from a floating production system and tied back to shore or alternatively tied back subsea to Tamar. One of the main challenges for Noble here is that current gas demand in Israel is around 750 Mmcf/d and has some seasonal peaks and troughs associated. With conversion by manufacturing industry from liquid fuel to gas the demand is expected to rise to around 1 Bcf/d by 2016. The problem is that Tamar on it’s own has an initial capacity of 985 Mmcf/d and is planned to reach a maximum capacity of 1.5 Bcf/d. Leviathan when it comes on stream in 2016 is expected to provide another 750 Mmcf/d. So almost immediately Israel will be in a surplus gas position of around 730 Mmcf/d. Noble has indicated they are looking at both onshore LNG facilities as well as a possible floating LNG facility for Leviathan and have partnered with Woodside who have extensive experience in LNG. They point out that the cost of supply of LNG from Israel offshore would be competitive with the very large Australian offshore gas fields as well as the recent large gas discoveries offshore east Africa (mainly Mozambique). The problem, however is that there is also a timing issue. Predicting demand for LNG is difficult and it is quite possible that if the Australian projects all came to fruition the Asian markets might have all the LNG they need. Another wildcard at this point is the competition from even lower cost gas in North America with potential LNG plants being planned at Kitimat (British Colombia), Sabine Pass (Louisiana), Golden Pass (Texas) and Quintana Island (Texas). So Noble is in a tricky position, they need to move forward with an LNG option or risk an oversupplied market at the same time as they risk prices which are too low for them due to competition. Note that there was also a 7 TCF discovery made in Cyprus waters on trend with Tamar and other discoveries in Israel.
With regards to other possible discoveries I had a look in some detail at the seismic group survey which was shot by either PGS or TGS a few years ago when the Lebanon government was looking at a bidding round for the offshore. It was fairly apparent that the big 4 way closures with little in the way of seal risk were concentrated in a trend coincident with the 6 fields discovered in Israeli waters. There are additional smaller closures at the Miocene reservoir level but not sure if they would be sub-economic or not. As to a potential oil play as part of the deal made with Woodside last year they are expected to drill a oil exploration target sometime this year.
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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 02 Apr 2013, 20:54:28

Plantagenet wrote:One of the first benefits will be that Israel will no longer have to worry about Islamist religious fanatics blowing up the gas-line from Egypt to Israel
And Zionist fanatics will have more money for guns and bombs to cleanse and "redeem" their g_d given promised land (and NG and fossil water resources).
"We have a forthcoming Darwinian opportunity at hand"

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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby John_A » Tue 02 Apr 2013, 21:29:05

Keith_McClary wrote:And Zionist fanatics will have more money for guns and bombs to cleanse and "redeem" their g_d given promised land (and NG and fossil water resources).


As the most trustworthy group in the region, better them than anyone else in the region.
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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 08 Apr 2013, 23:26:07

John_A wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:And Zionist fanatics will have more money for guns and bombs to cleanse and "redeem" their g_d given promised land (and NG and fossil water resources).


As the most trustworthy group in the region, better them than anyone else in the region.


"trustworthy"???

You can trust them to take your "foreign aid" $billions and look after their own interests, however damaging that is to your interests.

But, hay, USA needs all the friends it can get/buy. :lol:
"We have a forthcoming Darwinian opportunity at hand"

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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 09 Apr 2013, 08:46:36

Let me tell you something that we Israelis have against Moses. He took us 40 years through the desert in order to bring us to the one spot in the Middle East that has no oil!

Golda Meir

Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/autho ... OE2rZ0j.99
Now they find a source of fossil fuel sufficient to supply their needs for decades and they should sell it? Such a deal!!
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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby John_A » Tue 09 Apr 2013, 10:09:02

Keith_McClary wrote:
John_A wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:And Zionist fanatics will have more money for guns and bombs to cleanse and "redeem" their g_d given promised land (and NG and fossil water resources).


As the most trustworthy group in the region, better them than anyone else in the region.


"trustworthy"???

You can trust them to take your "foreign aid" $billions and look after their own interests, however damaging that is to your interests.

But, hay, USA needs all the friends it can get/buy. :lol:


All foreign policy works the same way, so getting/buying is good enough for the US, the Chinese, Russians, everbody. And the Israeli's are great, sure they look out for their interests, and occasionally pitch in to help us out as well. Just this one instance may very well have been worth all the money we have ever given them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

Go Israel!
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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 09 Apr 2013, 16:48:38

Now they find a source of fossil fuel sufficient to supply their needs for decades and they should sell it? Such a deal!!


actually from their perspective it is a good deal. Their power needs can easily be supplied by a small amount of the discovered gas as I pointed out above. They do not have the kind of capital that is required to drill wells, commission facilties etc. It makes very good sense for them to get someone else to pay for all the capital while not only being assured of enough gas supply for their needs but also getting a portion of the sale proceeds returned to them through royalties and taxes. Note that Israel operates under a royalty tax regime. Currently royalties at the wellhead are 12.5% of total production (before any expenses) and there is now in place an additional profits tax which works on a R factor basis which escalates at a percentage which goes to the government as the ratio of total capital outlays to revenue change. My understanding is that for a big field like Tamar the government take in the project would be 50-60%. Noble has already signed letters of intent with two large energy consumers in Israel, Dalia energy and Israel electric company for long term supply that will amount to about $20 billion in revenue. That means when it is all said and done Israel ends up not only being supplied with the energy it needs but also $10 billion or so in revenue and no required captial outlay.
Israel would likewise make their share of any LNG that was exported and if they were smart that windfall income could go to looking at all sorts of energy alternatives.
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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 09 Apr 2013, 20:21:59

I'm sure it can be done as you say and probably will be. But doing it that way in ten or fifteen years it will be all gone. What do they do then? It is not like Israel has anyplace else to look. The capital outlays for each field or well should be paid for by that field or well and can be done just as well later as sooner. Why sell gas at todays prices when that same gas can be left undisturbed for a decade or so and be used (and sold) at home at twenty times todays price.
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Re: MAJOR MIDDLE EAST NATURAL GAS FIELD NOW PRODUCING

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 09 Apr 2013, 21:12:29

John_A wrote:Just this one instance may very well have been worth all the money we have ever given them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera
Reading the "Assessment" section (except for the opinions of Bill Clinton and squad leader Ze'ev Raz) it seems to have created major blowback.

rockdoc123 wrote:... $20 billion ...
But, of course, they still get their "foreign aid".
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Qatar, Exxon to cooperate on natural gas in North America

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 15 Apr 2013, 16:03:24

Qatar, Exxon to cooperate on natural gas in North America

Qatar Petroleum International and Exxon Mobil Corp. signed a memorandum of understanding to assess jointly unconventional gas resources in North America and global opportunities in liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Both companies are involved in LNG projects in Qatar, the world’s No. 1 LNG exporter. They also have shared interests in LNG terminals in the United Kingdom, Italy and the US.

In a joint statement Qatar Petroleum International (QPI) and US oil and gas company ExxonMobil said the agreement sought to give QPI opportunities to explore various unconventional natural gas resources and associated liquids.
The companies signed the MoU at a conference in Berlin.

“(It) signifies our joint interest in expanding our partnership both domestically and internationally in order to address the growing and evolving role of natural gas, which continues to play a larger role in meeting the needs of an increasing population,” said Nasser Al-Jaidah, chief executive officer of QPI.

A North American shale gas boom late last decade has forced Qatar Petroleum to find new buyers for millions of tons a year of LNG it had planned to sell to the United States.


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Re: Qatar, Exxon to cooperate on natural gas in North Americ

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 16 Apr 2013, 08:08:29

“A North American shale gas boom late last decade has forced Qatar Petroleum to find new buyers for millions of tons a year of LNG it had planned to sell to the United States.”

That statement strikes me as a bit odd. Since the beginning of the hydrocarbon age the US has been one of the two largest NG producers on the planet and during most of that time Number 1. The recent shale developments have added a nice boost but during the last 25 years US NG production has slowly but steadily been climbing. In fact LNG imports to the US were virtually non-existent about 15 years ago. And LNG imports have never amounted to much more than 3% to 4% of domestic NG production. That just doesn’t strike me as the profile of a ripe potential export market for LNG. OTOH the EU and England have been seeing their deficit coming for many years especially since they began turning away from coal.
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Re: Qatar, Exxon to cooperate on natural gas in North Americ

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 16 Apr 2013, 10:43:54

Back in 2011 Qatar still shipped around 5 mm tonnes of LNG to the US, that out of a total of around 77 mm tonnes of supply. I believe that as US gas prices dropped Qatar simply chose to sell more percentatage of supply on the spot market which was seeing quite high prices. Qatar has recently said they expect to see the amount of spot sales halve by 2014 as a number of long term contracts with Japan and Argentina (as examples) come into effect. A lot of the spot sales occurred into European markets to offset dependence on Russian gas so Europe will feel the blow to some degree. Seems to me the Qataris and Exxon will seek to fill that void with US LNG.
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Re: Qatar, Exxon to cooperate on natural gas in North Americ

Unread postby KingM » Tue 16 Apr 2013, 11:13:21

I think they were counting on a collapse of North American natural gas to provide a huge new market. That seemed a strong possibility several years ago, but by the time the Qatari projects came online, had evaporated in the face of booming North American supply.
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Re: Qatar, Exxon to cooperate on natural gas in North Americ

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 16 Apr 2013, 15:27:42

King - Not sure why they would have expected a collapse. US NG production has been climbing steadily for more than 25 years...a 25% increase since 1986. In fact we've just reach the former Peak NG rate we hit in the early 70's. Explorationists, including moi, had no choice but to chase NG...not enough oil prospects left. In fact, given the increase in oil prices in the last 6 or 7 years one would have expected an increasing push towards NG in the US. At the same time the EU and England were obviously on the trail to getting hammered by a greater dependence on LNG IMHO.
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U.S. 'Beyond the Golden Age' for Natural Gas

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 10 Jun 2014, 18:04:57

U.S. 'Beyond the Golden Age' for Natural Gas, with China Coming on Strong

The United States is "beyond the golden age" for natural gas, and North America's gas surfeit now is in "full swing," the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Tuesday. China, meanwhile, is entering the golden age, while Mexico is a strong candidate in the future.

The international energy watchdog issued its 2014 Medium-Term Gas Market Report, with Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven joined by Laszlo Varro, who heads the gas, coal and power markets.

Three years ago, IEA proclaimed that the world was entering a golden age for gas based on growing supplies from unconventional plays, environmental concerns about coal-fired power plant emissions and a lack of nuclear energy growth (see Daily GPI, June 7, 2011). That epoch has been "firmly established in North America" and is quickly expanding to China and beyond.

Global gas demand to 2019 is seen rising by 2.2%, compared with a 2.4% rate projected in 2013's analysis. Global gas demand last year increased only 1.2% from 2012 to about 3,500 bcm [billion cubic meters] on a slowing economy, competition from coal/renewables and supply constraints in developing regions, according to IEA. Gas growth lagged that of oil (1.4%), coal (3-4%) and renewables (less than 4%). World gas demand is expected to total 3,980 bcm by 2019.

What's compensating for a relative stagnant growth for gas demand is a strengthening China market, where demand is expected to almost double in the next five years to more than 300 bcm, said van der Hoeven.

China's golden age of gas "has arrived," she said during a webcast. She noted that China recently secured the biggest gas deal in history by agreeing to buy $400 billion of Russia's natural gas over 30 years (see Daily GPI, May 23; May 21). "The recently signed supply deal with Russia is actually only a relatively small part of the story, and one that will take some time to come onstream.


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Re: U.S. 'Beyond the Golden Age' for Natural Gas

Unread postby Pops » Wed 11 Jun 2014, 09:03:20

Just goes to show that when you are tasked to advise the world on the one commodity that underpins every aspect of society there is a certain pressure to proclaim that it's always a golden age somewhere.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
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