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OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby GASMON » Mon 12 May 2008, 13:06:28

OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Thats what the BP June 2007 statistical review (2006 figures) states the Reserves to production ratios are for Oil Gas Coal.

http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview

Go to Downloads, statistical review 2007, select either pdf or slide pack.

Very interesting, 48 page review, reserves, production & consumption figures, graphs, etc. Country by country. Coal figures most scary, I thought we had 300+ years left.

Oil R/P page 10, Gas R/P page 26, Coal age 32 (grey line).

Factor in Chindia, well, 'nuff said !!!!

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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 12 May 2008, 13:13:26

I am sure I do not need to remind you, but it is worth repeating for the sake of completeness and for the benefit of people new to resource depletion, that the R/P ratio by itself is meaningless as the production rate is never constant.

As we are well aware, our resources will last considerably longer than the R/P ratios suggest, but at a declining rate of production, eventually giving a curve of equal area (the Ultimate).
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby GASMON » Mon 12 May 2008, 13:27:53

Twilight wrote:I am sure I do not need to remind you, but it is worth repeating for the sake of completeness and for the benefit of people new to resource depletion, that the R/P ratio by itself is meaningless as the production rate is never constant.

As we are well aware, our resources will last considerably longer than the R/P ratios suggest, but at a declining rate of production, eventually giving a curve of equal area (the Ultimate).


Very True. Now I'm no statistician, but look at figures for Known reserves against consumption. Divide one by the other & figure is nearly same as production. OK, we use (nearly) all we produce. The R/P graph page 10 seems pretty constant at around 40 years for the period 1986-2006.

Its RESERVES & CONSUMPTION that really matter (the figures are in the report). We have to find NEW BIG fields soon, or Chindia will get that line on the deck pretty damm quick.

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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby halcyon » Mon 12 May 2008, 14:01:01

It's more than that.

It's Production Rate Capability (under and above ground constrained) vs world consumption rate (growth) that matter.

It's all about flow rates.

Reserves mean nothing.

Oil in the ground cannot be consumed.

Repeat after me: all reserves are good for are in the oil company balance sheets (ie. for economists and dumb investors).
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby GASMON » Mon 12 May 2008, 15:10:23

halcyon wrote:It's all about flow rates. Reserves mean nothing.


Today, yes its all about flow rates, from a (guestimated) finite reserve. today reserve indeed means nothing.

In 40.5 years time (or less), remaining reserves will be more important than flow rates.

Do you think OPEC will up production & reduce prices ? I dont.

If it were your oil well, would you?. I wouldn't.

$124 / Barrel as I write. Doubt ever <$110 again, $200 soon.

Will the R/P graph remain at 40 years over the next 20 ?, doubt it.

The next 2 - 5 years will tell. Like to see BP's report for 2012.

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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 09:22:45

President Obama continues to fight against coal. I always believed it was a futile fight because once world peak oil hits the abundant coal resources will become the cheap fossil fuel of choice. Today even 'green' Germany is adding coal power and countries like Turkey, India and China are adding more than one new coal burning plant a week to the world total.

At the eleventh hour, the Obama administration on Monday rolled out regulations to crack down on coal mining across the country, a parting shot against the beleaguered industry as the president leaves office.

The regulations, designed to protect America’s streams and waterways from pollution produced during mining operations, will add significant costs to coal mining companies, many of which are struggling to operate.

The Interior Department estimates that it will cost the coal industry about $81 million each year to comply with the rule. The agency stressed that figure is just 0.1 percent of the coal industry’s “aggregate annual revenues.”

“We traveled the country, visited many mines and met with many of the people who work and live in coal country to make sure we wrote the best rule possible — one that is both economically achievable and protective,” said Janice Schneider, the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for land and minerals management.

But critics, including leaders in the energy sector and Republicans on Capitol Hill, have said the proposal will be much more expensive and surely will lead to even more layoffs in the industry, which has been losing jobs each year during the Obama administration.

Top Republican lawmakers, including House Speaker Paul D. Ryan, said Monday that they intend to work with the incoming Trump administration and scrap the rule early next year.

“The Obama administration is fighting its war on coal to the bitter end. This one rule could have crushing consequences for coal miners, their families and many communities,” Mr. Ryan said in a statement. “If we are going to get America back on track, job-crushing regulations like this must stop. Our unified Republican government will act to provide coal country with relief.”


The Interior Department’s Stream Protection Rule will go into effect 30 days after its official release and publication in the Federal Register, meaning it likely will be implemented Jan. 19, one day before Mr. Trump takes office.

Congressional Republicans will have the power to reverse the rules with a simple majority vote.

Under the Congressional Review Act, enacted in the 1990s, Congress can reverse regulations proposed within the previous 60 legislative days. That means any regulations put forth since June 13 could be reversed with a majority vote, according to the Congressional Research Service.

In addition to the Stream Protection Rule, federal rules limiting fracking on public lands and other environmental regulations also will be in Republican crosshairs in January.

Republicans seem to have at least a few allies across the aisle. Some coal-state Democrats also bashed the Interior Department’s latest proposal, arguing that it’s duplicative and essentially useless. Sen. Joe Manchin III, West Virginia Democrat, said he will work with Republicans to pass a bill to, at the very least, weaken the proposal.

“While we all must carefully review this 1,648 page final rule, I want to reiterate that the proposed rule was very alarming in its scope and potential impacts. I believe that the manner in which this rule making was executed was flawed and lacked transparency, and I will pursue legislation to ensure it does not harm our coal mining communities and economies,” he said in a statement.

The broad rules require coal companies “to avoid mining practices that permanently pollute streams, destroy drinking water sources, increase flood risk and threaten forests.”

More important, companies will be required to test and monitor the conditions of all streams that could be affected by their mining “before, during and after their operations,” the Interior Department said. The testing is meant to provide baseline data that would help government agencies determine whether any pollution was caused by coal mining.

“The responsible rule released today represents a modern and balanced approach to meeting the nation’s energy needs,” Interior Secretary Sally Jewell said. “Regulations need to keep pace with modern mining practices, so we worked closely with many stakeholders to craft a plan that protects water quality, supports economic opportunities, safeguards our environment and makes coalfield communities more resilient for a diversified economic future.”

Coal industry leaders said the administration clearly is trying to deal another blow to the coal industry on its way out the door.

“The decision to promulgate this duplicative rule at this stage is postelection midnight regulation and therefore obstructionism at its worst,” said Hal Quinn, president and CEO of the National Mining Association.


http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/ ... rgeting-c/
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 09:55:22

Judging purely by actual behaviors, the human race will burn every cubic foot of available gas, every cup of oil, and every lump of coal, because fossil fuels are cheap energy.

If you believe that burning FF's changes the climate, so what? There are not enough people that believe that, or anyways care enough about such topics to change their behaviors. You are a fringe element in the human race, with absolutely no chance of becoming the prevailing opinion.

Make your plans for you and your decendents to survive in the coming world. Else just wring your hands and die.
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 11:42:53

KaiserJeep wrote:Judging purely by actual behaviors, the human race will burn every cubic foot of available gas, every cup of oil, and every lump of coal, because fossil fuels are cheap energy.

If you believe that burning FF's changes the climate, so what? There are not enough people that believe that, or anyways care enough about such topics to change their behaviors. You are a fringe element in the human race, with absolutely no chance of becoming the prevailing opinion.

Make your plans for you and your descendants to survive in the coming world. Else just wring your hands and die.


I have been arguing for several years now that humans will burn all that is burnable simply because that is our instinctive behavior. Despite the fact that a propane grill gives you more exact temperature control for cooking many bar-b-que chefs still prefer wood/charcoal fires because their is some kind of draw to burning a solid fuel as our ancestors have been doing for some 250,000 years.

I had hope we would moderate our behavior at one time, but after 20 plus years of failed climate treaties that sound nice and accomplish nothing I no longer believe humans will stop burning before they lose access to fossil fuels.
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby Cog » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 11:48:49

I wouldn't give two hoots for a man who used a propane grill to cook a steak. Might as well boil it or microwave it. Charcoal is where its at.
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 11:57:42

Well we will certainly try to burn anything and everything but not all that burns is created equal.
This quote from above is a golden nugget "It's all about flow rates.

Reserves mean nothing.

Oil in the ground cannot be consumed.

Repeat after me: all reserves are good for are in the oil company balance sheets (ie. for economists and dumb investors)."
So, we may be burning stuff many years from now but that does NOT mean we will be doing it on the context of a modern industrial civilization :)
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 13:48:11

onlooker wrote:Well we will certainly try to burn anything and everything but not all that burns is created equal.
This quote from above is a golden nugget "It's all about flow rates.

Reserves mean nothing.


Tell it to the banks that will loan you money against them as collateral. Just like your house.

onlooker wrote:Oil in the ground cannot be consumed.


Neither can oil sitting in a stock tank on the surface. You have a natural objection to where oil is stored, prior to heading off to the refinery to be manufactured into the petrochemicals you, and everyone else on this website then proceeds to consume?

onlooker wrote:Repeat after me: all reserves are good for are in the oil company balance sheets (ie. for economists and dumb investors)."


Do you understand what an "estimate" is? And why they are utilized by the markets?

onlooker wrote:So, we may be burning stuff many years from now but that does NOT mean we will be doing it on the context of a modern industrial civilization :)


I would hope not. Ever since the transition to the next generation of doing things efficiently kicked off back during peak oil 2005 or so, and power manufacturers began delivering increased renewable electrical generation, the gas industry gave us abundant supplies of a cleaner burning fuel, and the auto manufacturers gave is cars running on electricity instead of those icky stinky petrochemicals, things have been changing fast into a post STOP BURNING EVERYTHING IT IS BAD FOR THE CLIMATE civilization.

And that is a good thing.
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby Revi » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 14:22:54

Good to know that we have so much energy left. Is that at our present rate of consumption, or with exponentially increasing usage factored in?
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 14:24:26

Sub - "President Obama continues to fight against coal. I always believed it was a futile fight because once world peak oil hits the abundant coal resources will become the cheap fossil fuel of choice."

Fight? Again all I can do is repeat the same facts:

US coal production peaked at the beginning of President Obama's first term and then declined as coal prices fell as a result of increasing NG production resulting from a surge in shale frac'ng.

US coal exports increased from 23 million tons in 2007 to 117 tons at the beginning of the president's second term. That was the most US coal exported ever exported. One more entry for the presidents record book.

The POTUS order three new coal export terminals built on the west coast. Local opposition forced the POTUS to expedite approval for the expansion of Texas coal export tertminals. As a result lasdt month for the first in history production from western coal fields was exported from Texas. Another record book entry.

US coal exports to China, the world's largest GHG producer, increased 500% under President Obama.

40% of US coal production comes frtom federal lands administered by President Obama.

OTOH President Obama certainly won the anti-coal verbiage war hands down. LOL.
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 14:30:36

OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Would anyone like to update those figures as I know that simply subtracting 8 (or 9) from each number isn't going to produce the correct result.
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby GASMON » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 14:55:42

The 65th edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy sets out energy data for 2015

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/e ... nergy.html

OIL 50.7 YEARS http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/e ... erves.html

GAS 52.8 YEARS http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/e ... erves.html

COAL 114 YEARS http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/e ... erves.html

Time marches on.

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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 15:28:56

Gas & coal estimates appear to show no increase in available resources, but oil has increased from 32 years (40 - 8) to 50 year. Maybe tight oil wasn't counted in a decade ago, or they've factored in the fact that consumers are willing to pay higher prices and this has allowed more resources to be counted as potential reserves.
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 15:37:07

Tanada wrote:-snip-

I have been arguing for several years now that humans will burn all that is burnable simply because that is our instinctive behavior. Despite the fact that a propane grill gives you more exact temperature control for cooking many bar-b-que chefs still prefer wood/charcoal fires because their is some kind of draw to burning a solid fuel as our ancestors have been doing for some 250,000 years.

I had hope we would moderate our behavior at one time, but after 20 plus years of failed climate treaties that sound nice and accomplish nothing I no longer believe humans will stop burning before they lose access to fossil fuels.


In our new home, the wife wants a dual fuel range (electric oven and gas burners, which we have now) and I want the more efficient electric induction burners. I know better than to win that argument, even though with me retired and her still working, the kitchen has been my domain for the last 19 months. However, she is convinced that a "real chef" prefers the instant heat of a gas burner.

I'll compromise by giving her the range and put another four-burner induction cooktop next to it, under the same highly decorative range hood. The same propane tank will be piped to the ICE backup generator which will ensure we never lose power even if the wind turbine and PV arrays prove insufficient due to weather conditions. Lay an inch-thick maple cutting board on the flush induction cooktop, and it becomes another workspace.

Even if we end up buying a residence rather than building one, the exercise of planning what we want will be a valuable one. As they say, planning is everything.
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 16:56:29

KJ - For background understand I grew up in New Orleans. And we have a disproportionate number of male cooks. Real cooks...unlike in Texas where turning a piece of meat from red to black on a grill qualifies as cooking. LOL. Always preferred cooking with gas vs electricity. But when we moved into the new place 7 years ago bought a induction range/convection oven from Sears. Been great: can control heat just as well/fast as with gas. Any efficiency gain would have been just a happy side effect. And during that time between the range and my help my Yankee wife has turned into a great cook. Can even make the perfect roux. LOL.

Maybe you can find a cooking school where your wife can try the induction.
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 17:45:31

RM, she can try the induction burners in our own home, there will be four gas and four induction. If I remember correctly, the propane flame is cooler than NG, but not by a lot. Flexibility is a good thing.

Now I have had an additional thought: two separate work triangles in the kitchen, one for her and one for me, capable of simultaneous use. Either side of a central island, perhaps. Flexibility is not a bad thing. If she prefers induction at some future date, we just slide another standard-sized induction/convection range in place of the Dual-fuel/convection range we have. The dual fuel requires BOTH 220v and gas hookups, and can be replaced with any other type of range.

My only other thought is we would prefer a different brand to the KitchenAid range we have in our present home. It was not as high-end or as reliable as we expected.

I lived from age 5 to age 10 in Metairie, a suburb of NO. (My Dad was career military, we moved a lot.) I remember netting crabs in Lake Pontchartrain, buying live gulf shrimp right off the boats, and the "Sound of Freedom", aka as the sonic booms from the nearby Naval Air Station in the 1950's. I also remember the Mad Governor, Earl Long, younger brother of "the Kingfish" Huey Long, and how he ran the state from the asylum his wife had him committed to, after the election. Then I remember how he shacked up with a voluptuous ginger-haired stripper named Blaze Starr (and I was only 10 years old).
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Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 22 Dec 2016, 00:46:23

You seem very HUNGRY Kaiser: Why would you need TWO ranges in one kitchen for cooking?

Induction seems very neat and, certainly, easy to keep clean.

Once you choose one or the other, I think you will be happy either way.
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