It is impossible to give even a year, and even a 1/10th of a year... One single exploration which hits an oil field changes everything in an Area... for example in 1950 when Persia was still one of the largest oil producers and the once world largest refinery (build in 1912 after oil was found in 1908 from the 1901 bought Oil Concession the Shah offered, he needed some money for his "lifestyle", Knox Darcy bought it for 40,000 Pounds... which in 1901 was really much money for a single person, but a joke... However in 1950 I would say nobody expected that the United Kingdom itself could ever supply its own oil needs, especially since in 1950 the post-WW2 motorization in Europe, Australia/NZ, Canada/US and some other places was reaching record levels and potential was extreme high...
and 30 years later in 1980 the UK was a major oil producer and in the late 1990's a real large one, also very high amounts (compared to the past) of natural gas were produced... In East Africa for example there were some very "interesting" data (seismic? 3D?!) and I think even there was a small field found, but because of the in fact not existing infrastrucutre in East-Africa (Tanzania/Mozambique or how it is written in English were the first ones, but there are basins crossing countries of course, as far north as South Sudan and into the south into South Africa and Offshore East-Africa (an area which is unimportant, it is quite far away from the Sues Canal, so only through oil tankers and the old South-African route the oil could be exported into the west, or something like 3,000 kilometers or more into the North and than the Sues Canal, but since it did cost 5 years ago for large ships over 400,000 US-$ to pass, I think it is smarter to drive around instead of using the Canal and pay the high price, but this oil is not needed!
We are "swimming" in oil if you want so... Iraq just for example showed that it does not give a ....... about the OPEC plan which brought a small increase in the first days of this years, but now they were falling already this week... today should be a new EIA-Report about US data... I guess an high or even higher production compared with quite small imports of crude oil, and a high use of oil, and low use of blending components, I would say... and the fuel Ethanol production is now for many months always above 1 million barrels daily, so I guess it will increase too with the time... I mean Brazil would consume at least 50% more oil without its fuel ethanol...
We have oil for over 100 years with the unconventional! The technic will be first, and the Arab/OPEC states could end up with much oil, as long as we do not find a super power creation like a "fusion" or so than oil will be always worth "a bit" because of its energy content per liter or ton, it could be used to fire electric power plants, like a "better coal" in terms of energy density or so,even in German I do not remember the correct words for this fusion reactor, it is like a nuclear reactors, just much better because other fuel, less radiation and shorter half-life and not like Uran with its ten thousands of years half-life time or how you call it in English, medicine it is the time when 50% were eliminated.
Iraq will export in February 2017 very much more than "allowed":
according to Iraq’s national oil company, the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO), had disclosed plans as of December 8, nine days after agreeing to cut production, to increase deliveries of its Basra oil grades by about 7 percent to 3.53 million barrels a day compared with October levels.
Bagdad blames the Kurds... as usual.
To be sure, Iraq did come up with a convenient scapegoat when just days later it blamed the autonomous Kurdish region of exporting more than its allocated share of oil. As a reminder, as part of the deal, Iraq, OPEC's second largest producer, agreed to reduce output by 210,000 bpd to 4.351 million bpd. However, it immediately accused Kurdistan, over whose oil production Iraq's level of control is limited at best, of producing well more than its quota.
Just like last month, the country's State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) announced plans to export 3.641 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in February, according to trade sources and preliminary loading schedules obtained by Thomson Reuters on Tuesday, beating a record of 3.51 million bpd set in December. The February volume includes 2.748 million bpd of Basra Light and 893,000 bpd of Basra Heavy, the documents showed.
Reuters adds that for January, SOMO had planned to export 2.627 million bpd of Basra Light and 903,000 bpd of Basra Heavy. Basra crude accounts for the bulk of oil exports from Iraq.
I mean this would be, if true, over 3.5 million barrels a day alone through Basrah oil terminal in January! In February as we can read even 3.641 million, the Pipeline from the Kurdish oil fields (Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline) can deliver 1.6 million barrels daily to the turkish port of Ceyhan! I do not know about the Ceyhan oil terminal, but the Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline is the (only?!) way for the Caspian Sea oil from Azerbaijan which produces around ~1 mbpd...
In 2008 or 2009 an oil field in Iran was found with 16 billion barrels OOIP, and recoverable reserves are hard to say but they think between 5.5 and up to 8.5 or even 9 billion barrel in the absolute best scenario... For Iranian standards this is only a "middle class"-field, but not even a good middle class, just above "one of hundreds"... in Europe it would be an absolute sensation if for example such a field would be found in the 3 states, lets say Hungary, Czech, Slovakia with 16 billion OOIP and every of the 3 countries got a bit... but in Iran they even did not really mentioned it, only a hand full of small online articles, thats all...
The OPEC Members will fail with the cut and we will have cheap oil.... and on long term the Persian Gulf states have only 2 options as far as I can see... at least I think only 2 options are quite realistic......