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When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Unread postby 0mar » Mon 06 Dec 2004, 17:26:58

I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.
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Unread postby Sencha » Mon 06 Dec 2004, 19:39:09

The U.S. is too set in its ways, and too dependent on modern technology. Innovative people who have ingenuity and resourcefulness, are most likely working for companies that contribute to the peak oil problem, and are directing their efforts in the entirely wrong direction.

We have very few people who actively work toward making survival in a post-peak world possible. Americans will have to learn fast or they'll be a die-off. I'm sure they will, but probably not after there's been plenty of bloodshed over remaining resources. In the beginning, you'll probably just have thousands upon thousands of people waiting on government handouts of rations and necessities. (if they should be so generous).
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Unread postby savethehumans » Tue 07 Dec 2004, 01:16:48

JINGLE BELLS
JINGLE BELLS
PEAK OIL'S ON THE WAY!
OH, WHAT FUN
IT IS TO RIDE
ON A CAMEL-PULLED DUNE SLEIGH!
JINGLE BELLS
JINGLE BELLS
ECONOMIES DECLINE!
SAY, CAN YOU SEE
WHAT LIES AHEAD--
IT'S AN "IT'S ALL OVER" SIGN!

Thought a little levity (dark as it is!) might be in order here.... :)
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 29 Jul 2017, 20:02:43

0mar wrote:I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.


I would point out that Omar has a pretty standard peaker view, circa 2004. Back in the heyday it was all about getting to a good rapture trigger/apocalypse event. I wonder what happened to Omar, as one of the great disappearing herd of peakers who took a look around one afternoon and realized they needed a different good excuse to buy gold, guns or MREs, and bury tubes of supplies in national forests to hide from the mutant zombie bikers? This would at least put Omar in the class of folks who realize they had been had, joining guys like Savinar in fleeing the stench of their bad prognostications.
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Re: Re:

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 05:13:29

AdamB wrote:
0mar wrote:I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.


I would point out that Omar has a pretty standard peaker view, circa 2004. Back in the heyday it was all about getting to a good rapture trigger/apocalypse event. I wonder what happened to Omar, as one of the great disappearing herd of peakers who took a look around one afternoon and realized they needed a different good excuse to buy gold, guns or MREs, and bury tubes of supplies in national forests to hide from the mutant zombie bikers? This would at least put Omar in the class of folks who realize they had been had, joining guys like Savinar in fleeing the stench of their bad prognostications.

OK going along with the trend of dragging up old posts and ridiculing the comments, it appears that Omar had a very moderate and realistic viewpoint based on the fact that he is simply stating the fact that after "the peak", oil production will be lower and it will take several years for the affects of a restricted supply to be really noticeable by the general public.

He makes no mention of a rapture, apocalypse, mutant zombie bikers or any other catastrophic events, you added that!

"Leave oil before oil leaves us", has been the message of sense coming from many "peakers", including myself. It appears that this message has been heeded and the transition from oil is now in full swing with more and more countries mandating EV's only after certain dates in the not too distant future.

Plus of course, manufacturers now doing some serious development of these replacement vehicles along with advances in battery technology.


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Re: Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 09:28:45

dolanbaker wrote:
AdamB wrote:
0mar wrote:I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.


I would point out that Omar has a pretty standard peaker view, circa 2004. Back in the heyday it was all about getting to a good rapture trigger/apocalypse event. I wonder what happened to Omar, as one of the great disappearing herd of peakers who took a look around one afternoon and realized they needed a different good excuse to buy gold, guns or MREs, and bury tubes of supplies in national forests to hide from the mutant zombie bikers? This would at least put Omar in the class of folks who realize they had been had, joining guys like Savinar in fleeing the stench of their bad prognostications.

OK going along with the trend of dragging up old posts and ridiculing the comments, it appears that Omar had a very moderate and realistic viewpoint based on the fact that he is simply stating the fact that after "the peak", oil production will be lower and it will take several years for the affects of a restricted supply to be really noticeable by the general public.


Hence my comment that Omar has a pretty midstream point of view for a peaker, circa 2004. He did say a few years, now in the PAST based on the claims of peak oil having happened back in 2005 (still circulating today), he said "real consequences" which we now know what they are, sitting here in glut and oversupply with OPEC having lost control of the price of the marginal barrel, and he claimed it was because of depleted oil. Just as ignorant on what depletion is as folks still are today. Hence my comment that he was pretty middle of the road.

dolanbaker wrote:He makes no mention of a rapture, apocalypse, mutant zombie bikers or any other catastrophic events, you added that!


I added that as a comparison to some of the more exciting features and cool effects of peak oil, also back in the archives. Don't worry...we'll get there! :)

dolanbaker wrote:"Leave oil before oil leaves us", has been the message of sense coming from many "peakers", including myself.


Sure. Just like my families use of EVs. You are familiar with the denigration of exactly that solution back during the peak oil days, aren't you? Would you say that this peak oil transport solution, now exploding across the country and some countries even discussing mandating it, was a common and known peak oil solution among the moderates back then? I can't say I've made that decision myself yet, based on past posts.

dolanbaker wrote:
It appears that this message has been heeded and the transition from oil is now in full swing with more and more countries mandating EV's only after certain dates in the not too distant future.


But peakers weren't claiming peak oil could be solved, just personally mitigated, hence their retreat from its use (and collection of gold, guns and MREs). Techno solutions were specifically discounted, particularly EVs. Some, I believe pstarr makes a handy example of this attitude, claimed that peak oil itself would stop the solutions from working, and even others, moderate folks no less, claimed that drill baby drill would never work...setting up the comparison between what they know about oil, and a halfwit like Sarah Palin who, as it turns out, was right where they weren't.

dolanbaker wrote:Plus of course, manufacturers now doing some serious development of these replacement vehicles along with advances in battery technology.

Peak oil will be a silent fart of an event


And if you had claimed that circa 2004, odds are you would have been trolled, called names and banned. Whereas today? Those of us who have seen the future of personal transport completely agree with you. And there are more of us than peak oil rapturists.

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Re: Re:

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 12:38:55

AdamB wrote:
0mar wrote:I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.


I would point out that Omar has a pretty standard peaker view, circa 2004. Back in the heyday it was all about getting to a good rapture trigger/apocalypse event.

First, in defense of Omar and those of his ilk in the mid 00's, it's hard to predict the future.

Second, during the spring and summer of 2008 (and really 2005 - mid 2008 as a trend), it was looking like Omar's standard peaker view was pretty reasonable.

The objection I have to the short term doomer peaker crowd is that NOW, several years into a huge fracking oil supply glut that seems to have no end in sight (and while the oil price might swing a lot in the future, the concept of "running out" in the intermediate term is sheer lunacy), they refuse to accept any data outside their "doom blinder's" view and adjust their outlook, based on objective reality.

BTW, I still believe in the concept of peak oil in terms of the big finite resource issue. I just don't think it MATTERS to humans any more, given the vast new supplies, the impact of EV's in coming decades, and all the substitutes that will be available in coming decades, including massive amounts of solar, wind, battery, etc. green energy.

If in, say, 40-75 years we still need to burn, say, 10% of the current fossil fuel load to run blast furnaces and certain energy intensive transpo and other industrial operations, and use fossil fuels to make the various plastics and chemicals modern society needs to support the population -- that will certainly be MUCH easier to do AGW and pollution mitigation for than the current mess. (Viable long term with scientific progress? I don't know, but seems rather likely).

A perfect scenario? No. A relatively bright future to meet human FF needs for a long time? Sure looks that way to me.
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 12:52:52

When? How about today? There are a countless number of folks on the planet living substandard lives due to a lack of affordable oil/NG. There may be an abundance for those who can afford $45/bbl oil but hundreds of millions (if not billions) who can't.

Compare the US (69 bopd per 1,000) to India (2.5 bopd per 1,000). So what? The 1.3 BILLION Indians are that much more environmentally conscious then the 330 million Americans since they CHOOSE to use one 4% as much oil per person as Americans do? Or is it because the people of India are suffering from a "big and lasting oil shortage"? A big and lasting shortage of oil they can afford. There are actually more then a few Americans in the same boat: the Rockman's wife periodically gives a neighbor (single mom with 3 kids) a ride to the grocer store to save on gas. Local gas that's running $1.90/gal there days. Fortunately she has mass transit to make it to work.

Affluent folks (like many Americans) need to remember: it isn't always just about them. LOL.
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Re: Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 12:56:41

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:
0mar wrote:I'd say within 5-8 years after the peak will real consequential effects of depleted oil hit us. This is because by then the number fudging game will be over and the reality will hit us that oil is not plentiful anymore.


I would point out that Omar has a pretty standard peaker view, circa 2004. Back in the heyday it was all about getting to a good rapture trigger/apocalypse event.

First, in defense of Omar and those of his ilk in the mid 00's, it's hard to predict the future.


Interesting that every ridiculous prognostication from back then (and now as well) doesn't have that as a caveat before being made, don't you think? Probably because it blunts the effect of the fear meme that happy mcdoomsters are trying to generate.
Example:

"Well you know the entire world is going to die in awful ways when peak oil hits on Thanksgiving Day 2005 (Deffeyes) and we'll need guns and ammo and bunkers and bug out bags...BUT...the future is hard to predict."

See? LIONS AND TIGERS AND BEARS!!!!!.....but......

outcast_searcher wrote:Second, during the spring and summer of 2008 (and really 2005 - mid 2008 as a trend), it was looking like Omar's standard peaker view was pretty reasonable.


It always does. One of its attributes...but only assuming you can find gullible people who don't ask the obvious question...to whit..."well..sure it looks reasonable...but what about all those OTHER times you folks said the same thing and it turned out that you can't predict this at all..."

Colin Campbell peak in 1990. Hubbert's in 1995. Savinar and Ruppert in 2000. Deffeyes and Simmons in 2005. IEA in 2006. TOD in 2008. See what I mean? All looked reasonable. All were a crock. And also notice that NO ONE in peakerville goes back and asks WHY they looked reasonable, and yet were so wrong. Well, some of us have, but we are usually called names for doing it.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:The objection I have to the short term doomer peaker crowd is that NOW, several years into a huge fracking oil supply glut that seems to have no end in sight (and while the oil price might swing a lot in the future, the concept of "running out" in the intermediate term is sheer lunacy), they refuse to accept any data outside their "doom blinder's" view and adjust their outlook, based on objective reality.


Yup. And this is where the history comes in, and why doomers HATE talking about it. Because it calls into question their claim of now, using all the same schemes that have already been discredited by reality.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:BTW, I still believe in the concept of peak oil in terms of the big finite resource issue.


Of course. Everyone does. It might be the only axiomatic part of Hubbert's entire idea, for every finite resource there is a starting point of zero, a maxima along the way to an ending point of zero. This is often converted into a strawman by peakers when they rail against those who disagree with them. But a strawman it is, because it is axiomatic.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I just don't think it MATTERS to humans any more, given the vast new supplies, the impact of EV's in coming decades, and all the substitutes that will be available in coming decades, including massive amounts of solar, wind, battery, etc. green energy.


Peak oil is as likely to be caused by peak demand, as the other way around. But notice that Hubbert, and later the modern peaker movement, never talked about the demand variable of a two variable, supply/demand equation. Again, how would it look?

"Well gee the world is going to end because of lack of oil and we'll all die, those of us who don't hoard gold and guns and MRE....but then maybe if demand decreases first then you can ignore everything I said before "but"."
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 13:21:07

ROCKMAN wrote:When? How about today? There are a countless number of folks on the planet living substandard lives due to a lack of affordable oil/NG. There may be an abundance for those who can afford $45/bbl oil but hundreds of millions (if not billions) who can't.

Compare the US (69 bopd per 1,000) to India (2.5 bopd per 1,000). So what? The 1.3 BILLION Indians are that much more environmentally conscious then the 330 million Americans since they CHOOSE to use one 4% as much oil per person as Americans do? Or is it because the people of India are suffering from a "big and lasting oil shortage"? A big and lasting shortage of oil they can afford. There are actually more then a few Americans in the same boat: the Rockman's wife periodically gives a neighbor (single mom with 3 kids) a ride to the grocer store to save on gas. Local gas that's running $1.90/gal there days. Fortunately she has mass transit to make it to work.

Affluent folks (like many Americans) need to remember: it isn't always just about them. LOL.


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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 14:21:40

Good post by Rockmam about how 'cheap oil' is such a relative term. Kep in mind that cheap oil is not a cause for celebration currently for marginal producers
Last edited by onlooker on Sun 30 Jul 2017, 14:48:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby KingM » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 14:34:01

I'm someone who has been around since about 2005. Back then it seems like it was about 1/3 hard doomers, 1/3 cornucopians, and 1/3 cautiously optimistic, but aware that there was an issue. I was in this latter category, although to a doomer, anyone who doesn't see cannibalism in the future looks like a cornucopian.

I would still say we're not over the hump. I'd be a lot happier if we were making a faster, more aggressive push to de-carbonize, and not only for PO concerns. There's global warming, of course, but also, leaving some of those FFs in the ground gives us a civilizational reset. Sooner or later there will be a collapse. It might be in 100 years or a 1,000 or 10,000 (hard to imagine). But if we've burned every scrap of coil and drop of oil, how will we ever rebuild industrial civilization? Straight from Dutch-style windmills to nuclear power? Unlikely.
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 15:57:30

ROCKMAN wrote:When? How about today? There are a countless number of folks on the planet living substandard lives due to a lack of affordable oil/NG. There may be an abundance for those who can afford $45/bbl oil but hundreds of millions (if not billions) who can't.

....

Affluent folks (like many Americans) need to remember: it isn't always just about them. LOL.

So you have a magic wand or a magical additional redistribution program which will cure poverty? Good luck with that. (And ponder the 50+ year epic failure of the American "War on Poverty" before you answer in the affirmative).

If Indians don't like their country's economic circumstances, maybe not having a kazillion kids would help. I recently saw an article forecasting India's population to shoot by China's, BTW. I know it's an unpopular meme in the modern political landscape, but actions do have consequence.

While you're LOLing about affluent folks, maybe knowing a little bit about some of them would help provide some perspective. I spend more on helping family, friends, and the poor (primarily a local homeless service organization that feeds, houses, and counsels over 100 homeless and over 30 vets with various issues) than I spend on myself. (And that's before taxes). Between income taxes and charity and gifts and inheritances, those mean old thoughtless affluent folk collectively give away a HELL of a lot of wealth, which goes toward helping people. So pardon the hell out of me if I'm not embarrassed that I can afford to drive my middle class car 4000 miles a year.

But I know, we need to bash anyone with the temerity to have been financially successful via working hard in school and on the job -- it's the politically correct thing to do, after all. If that goes on long enough and many of them decide to take a more Ayn Rand type approach to their giving in response, would more whining about them help?
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 16:50:28

Well the marginal plays seem to be going from boon to bust
http://calgaryherald.com/business/energ ... ion-leases
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 17:56:00

onlooker wrote:Well the marginal plays seem to be going from boon to bust
http://calgaryherald.com/business/energ ... ion-leases

"The province’s biggest auctions of oilsands leases took place in 2006, when investors paid almost $2 billion to buy 1.5 million hectares at an average price of $1,273 per hectare.

In 2016, only 44,000 hectares were sold at just $266 per hectare."

So the producers sell oil to refineries, most/many of which are owned by the production companies. The finished product is then sold to market, the final consumers of gasoline, diesel etc like you and me. Mom and Pop.

The finished product is also consumed by the oil production companies to produce oil. But the production company buys the oil at a discount, oil that essentially disappears from the consumer market. . . and into an oil company expense account. Oil that doesn't contribute to the consumer market supply. This is not a oil supply glut. It's a demand dearth within the pricing mechanism.
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 19:21:12

Outcast - "...I know, we need to bash anyone with the temerity to have been financially successful via working hard in school and on the job." So I take it you feel rightfully proud of being part of the 5% of the global population that consumers more then 20% of the world's petroleum.

As a seller of petroleum I fully support your efforts. But you should try to drive more. LOL.

BTW the excess consumption of petroleum by affluent Americans is a significant portion of the reason those needy folks need financial help given the resultant higher cost from our glutinous consumption. Also a shame those same needy folks aren't benefiting from the economic growth provided by all that ff consumption.
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 19:37:08

KingM wrote:I'm someone who has been around since about 2005. Back then it seems like it was about 1/3 hard doomers, 1/3 cornucopians, and 1/3 cautiously optimistic, but aware that there was an issue. I was in this latter category, although to a doomer, anyone who doesn't see cannibalism in the future looks like a cornucopian.

I would still say we're not over the hump. I'd be a lot happier if we were making a faster, more aggressive push to de-carbonize, and not only for PO concerns.


Some of us have. What would your thoughts be on the current transition underway to generate renewable power to power EVs? This was one scheme that was discounted in the bad old days, PO itself supposed to clobber it, and the movie Who Killed The Electric Car being the example. Just since the claimed PO of a decade ago, that idea has been destroyed by the reality of commuters now EVing silently to work, without harming a single gasoline molecule. And now we have entire manufacturers vowing to stop ICE only production, and countries talking about only allowing EVs going forward? Lets hear it for market saturation effects, and in this case, what happens with oil supply when large numbers of folks just don't want to burn it anymore for random transport.
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 19:43:53

onlooker wrote:Well the marginal plays seem to be going from boon to bust
http://calgaryherald.com/business/energ ... ion-leases


Boom to bust is the business. Those who can't stand the heat can get on out of the kitchen. Some are hardy enough to make it through the lean years, and help their organizations through not just the coming boom, but the bust that always follows. Buying opportunities abound right now...just as they did in the aftermath of 1986. Doomers really need to learn from history, because they don't make a claim of something that someone else hasn't already beat them to, and are amazed at how industry functions when it has always functioned that way,and looks to continue in the foreseeable future.
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 31 Jul 2017, 02:42:02

Btw, what Rockmam stated, I myself do not begrudge what we relatively rich have in rich countries as we earned our money working hard. But let's be blunt and sincere as Rockman has been and admit we get more than our fair share of the pie thus leaving less than a fair share for others. Afterall, only so much pie exists
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Re: When a big & lasting oil shortage will happen .

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 31 Jul 2017, 05:19:03

looker - Which is my point about my MADOR protocol: Mutually Assured Distribution Of Resources. Just like the MAD protocol of the potential nuclear war days. Those economies that have the financial ability to dominate the ff market will do just that. But it does not serve their mutual interest to battle (either financially or militarily) each other: like MAD there's really no winner. Those powerful economies will instead take an even larger portion of future energy resources...to the detriment of weaker economies. Just as it happens today...just as it always has.

One can judge that situation as unfair but short of a truly effective communistic designed global commerce how can it be otherwise? Those strong economies might try to offer some minimal assistance to the weaker. But the obligation of each govt is to conduct iitself primarily for the benefit of its citizens. In a democracy a govt will have to do so or suffer being replaced by its voters. Venezuela is a good example of that NOT HAPPENING.

But consider the current US export profile. And not focusing on oil exports which have never actually been banned. Those are relatively small compared to refinery products. Products made from almost 5 million bopd. A fact many Americans are unaware of. The US has become THE refinery for the world. Which is OK with the voters...today thanks to relatively low motor fuel prices.

But what when those prices double...or triple? Given such a potential political weapon it's difficult to imagine politicians not using a potential ban (or at least limits) of such exports. The same can be said for any country exporting products. Consider the top 5 countries that account for more then 40% of those exports:

United States: $64.1 billion (12.7% of total refined oil exports)
Russia: $46 billion (9.1%)
Netherlands: $37.4 billion (7.4%)
Singapore: $36.1 billion (7.2%)
India: $27 billion (5.3%)

Not only will those exports become political issues they'll also become potential leverage to use against importing nations. Consider the EU which has been losing refinery capacity for years. Folks can appreciate oil embargoes but I don't many have contemplated product embargoes...and which countries, like the US, that would have the upper hand in such a dynamic.

And here's an indication of how little anyone is paying attention to potential product embargoes compared to restrictions of oil imports: while there are dozens of compilations of oil imports by country on the web I could not find a single one for refinery products. IOW which are the top 5 importers? And how susceptible are they to future restricted US exports? Sure, one could search each country individually. But interesting that perhaps no one has thought that to be worthwhile. And not just the big importers are of interest: what about small countries that import 70% or more of the products the consume? Countries that product exporters, like the US, would see little value in supplying during a future crunch time.

BTW: In 2015 the UK’s reliance on imported oil products reached its highest level in 32 years as rising demand for fuels continued to outstrip what domestic refineries produce.
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