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THE Tom Whipple Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

THE Tom Whipple Thread (merged)

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 17:35:38

[url=http://www.fcnp.com/534/peakoil.htm]The Peak Oil Crisis:
Waiting for Winter
(link)[/url] By Tom Whipple:

In the fourth quarter, worldwide demand for oil goes up by 2.5 million barrels per day over summer demand to keep the northern latitudes warm during the winter months. Given that we might have an unusually cold winter this year, the demand increase might be conservative.

The Chinese government recently announced their economy is going to grow another nine or ten percent this year. Maybe they have figured out how to grow without increasing their oil consumption. If they expect in keep this up, their oil imports should start increasing The US economy is still bouncing along fairly well with predictions of pretty good growth next year. More oil needed!

Although many of our flooded refineries are getting back into operation, about a million barrels per day of refining capacity has not yet recovered from the hurricanes. Two-thirds of our Gulf oil production is still shutdown and it’s beginning to look as if government predictions that all will be well in the Gulf by Christmas are optimistic. In Iraq , the insurgents continue to blow up oil pipes at a steady pace and it is only a matter of time before they figure out how to shut down production completely. The shipments of refined gasoline to the US from our fellow International Energy Agency members will soon be drawing to a close. The first signs of serious inflation are beginning to stir.

Despite all this bullish-for-oil news however, prices have dropped some 15 percent since the Katrina peak of over $70 dollars. Wall Street oil traders and analysts are starting to tell financial reporters that the hurricane dislocations are over for a while and the good times may roll for a while longer. Indeed earlier this week the Dow flew up 170 points on the idea that our oil problems no longer look as bad as they did a few weeks ago.

Where did all this optimism come from? Is it justified? The root cause, of course, is

go read the web site
Last edited by Ferretlover on Sat 04 Jul 2009, 12:34:34, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merge thread.
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Re: Whipple Waits for Winter

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 17:56:09

Does anyone have any idea/links to info on when we see the decline or end to the gasoline shipments? I see that as a big deal come the short term. That coupled with the emphassis on gas production vice heating oil after Katrina is going to really hurt if the weather doesn't cooperate this winter.
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Re: Whipple Waits for Winter

Unread postby gt1370a » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 18:13:17

Thanks for this post. One thing he does not consider is that, although a major supply problem exists, traders may anticipate that demand will be reduced. Numbers on unemployment, housing, inflation, etc. provide a blurry picture on all of this. If there is a recession and demand drops to 80 Mb/day or less, then I guess oil would be pretty significantly overpriced right now.

Following the recent drop to $60, one trader said "We're trading demand now, not supply." The only thing I can figure is that these guys are expecting a major economic slowdown. The run-up in gold to over $470 happened at the same time and indicates the same thing. And when companies like Exxon say they won't invest more in refineries, exploration, or alternatives, that may also be an indicator that they expect demand to drop. I dunno. Those guys aren't stupid and they're all aware of the things Whipple mentions in his article.
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Re: Whipple Waits for Winter

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 18:21:32

gt1370a wrote:One thing he does not consider is that, although a major supply problem exists, traders may anticipate that demand will be reduced.

Why didn't you read the article? Was it too much trouble?
Another reason for the price drop, however, is the "demand destruction" (a fancy term for "it costs too much so I am not going to buy as much) said to be taking place in the United States.
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Re: Whipple Waits for Winter

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 18:47:31

AirlinePilot wrote:Does anyone have any idea/links to info on when we see the decline or end to the gasoline shipments?

IEA Leaves Stock Draw Unchanged (link)
Thursday October 20, 12:53 pm ET
International Energy Agency Reviews Oil Supply, Leaves Stock Draw Unchanged

PARIS (AP) -- International Energy Agency members agreed Thursday to complete the release of emergency oil stocks launched to plug supply shortages after Hurricane Katrina devastated Gulf of Mexico oil facilities, but decided against any further measures.

The governing board of the IEA reviewed the global oil supply situation and the stock draw announced last month, and said it remains prepared to take "additional coordinated action" to address future shortages if needed.

The IEA, a club of 26 mainly industrialized oil-importing countries, announced on Sept. 2 the release of 60 million barrels of oil equivalent in the form of crude as well as gasoline and other refined products.

Oil and gasoline supply pressures eased Thursday on news that U.S. gasoline stocks rose last week and as forecasts predicted that Wilma, the latest hurricane to threaten the Gulf coast, will likely avoid key oil facilities.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery was down US$2.06 to US$60.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. supply data released Wednesday showed that crude inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels last week to 312 million. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels to 195.7 million.
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Re: Whipple Waits for Winter

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 21:12:56

Thanks Peanut, I'm assuming that this is an open ended thing and that at some point they will just shut it off. Will be interesting to see when and under what circumstances this will occur.
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Re: Whipple Waits for Winter

Unread postby gt1370a » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 22:05:19

BabyPeanut wrote:
gt1370a wrote:One thing he does not consider is that, although a major supply problem exists, traders may anticipate that demand will be reduced.

Why didn't you read the article? Was it too much trouble?
Another reason for the price drop, however, is the "demand destruction" (a fancy term for "it costs too much so I am not going to buy as much) said to be taking place in the United States.


I read it, jerk. God why do people have to be so insulting over stuff like that. There's a difference between demand destruction taking place now (which apparently it isn't given today's news that the economy is growing at a 3.8% pace this quarter), and anticipating a future reduction in demand. His whole point was that there would be supply issues in the 4th quarter. That assumes that demand growth will be normal. If there is a recession, demand would likely decrease, a supply cushion would be re-introduced, and we could return to oil in the ~$40 range. The current price doesn't reflect past data, it reflects traders' anticipation of future market conditions.
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Re: Whipple Waits for Winter

Unread postby SD_Scott » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 22:23:30

A lot of the pipeline terminals in this country have what's called floating roof tanks. The roof of the tank floats on pontoons on top of the product. This is so there is no vapor space to combust. The roof therefore looks like the top of a piston and moves up and down with the level of the product. However some percentage of them are cone roofed tanks and hide the level. If you knew where the terminals were you could get a sattelite view and instantly know what the general inventory of that terminal was.

The pipeline I worked on for seven years is called the blue and gold line. It's owned and operated by Conoco/Phillips. It goes from Borger Texas to East Chicago Indiana. The two biggest terminals are in East Saint Louis Illinois and East Chicago Indiana.

Yes I meant Illinois and Indiana
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Tom Whipple Makes It Into VOA

Unread postby Bleep » Tue 02 May 2006, 09:20:13

Tom Whipple's columns are normally run in a small newspaper called the Falls Church News-Press. His columns are frequently carried by http://energybulletin.net/ which the VOA article relates to:

World Oil Price Peak Disputed (link)
... Tom Whipple writes and edits for an international energy newsletter outside Washington, D.C. In the past year he has written over 50 columns about the likely impact of what has been called "Peak Oil."

“What 'Peak Oil' means is that we are about halfway through all the oil under the earth."

More importantly, says Whipple, most of what is left will likely be far more difficult to extract than has been the case up to now. "It really does not matter too much how much is under the earth if you cannot get it out and get it to your gas station."

Whipple says that means energy prices are likely to remain high until alternative fuels can be developed, and/or human activities altered to lessen our dependence on petroleum. That transition -- the "Peak Oil" transition -- could take decades. And in the meantime? "Nobody really knows what is going to happen -- nobody has any idea what the world is going to look like as we transition from the oil age to, call it the 'post-oil age,' because it has never happened before." ...

... Mr. Whipple says, "Right now we are seeing an awful lot of the world's airlines encountering a great big problem. A number of the smaller ones are really on the verge of re-structuring themselves." ...
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Re: Tom Whipple Makes It Into VOA

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 02 May 2006, 09:51:42

This is certainly noteworthy, considering that VOA is a government-owned tool of the neocons.
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Peak Oil Crisis: One Year in Review by Tom Whipple

Unread postby Justamom » Thu 08 Jun 2006, 23:04:08

This is from Falls Church Virginia.

http://www.fcnp.com/614/peakoil.htm

here was an interesting snippet from this article...

" During the past year, a pair of internal company documents were leaked in Mexico and Kuwait . The Mexican document suggests that production from the giant Cantarell oil field from which the US imports 1.6 million barrels a day is about to collapse catastrophically. In the case of Kuwait , the leaked study claims that the country's oil reserves may only be 25 to 50 percent of the official number. In the meantime, Kuwait has announced that production from their giant Burgan oil field has started to decline. "

Im glad a "local" news source is keeping PO in sight for everyone, accurate or not , at least it's out there and maybe peeps will investigate.
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Re: Peak Oil Crisis: One Year in Review by Tom Whipple

Unread postby dinopello » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 00:18:41

Justamom wrote:
here was an interesting snippet from this article...

" During the past year, a pair of internal company documents were leaked in Mexico and Kuwait . The Mexican document suggests that production from the giant Cantarell oil field from which the US imports 1.6 million barrels a day is about to collapse catastrophically. In the case of Kuwait , the leaked study claims that the country's oil reserves may only be 25 to 50 percent of the official number. In the meantime, Kuwait has announced that production from their giant Burgan oil field has started to decline. "


This doesn't sound good at all.
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Re: Peak Oil Crisis: One Year in Review by Tom Whipple

Unread postby fireplaceguy » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 02:00:43

dinopello wrote:
This doesn't sound good at all.
No - not a pretty picture. If you're trying to figure out a timeline this is alarming. The Cantarell news i've heard before, but Kuwait at only 25-50% of stated reserves? Ouch! No wonder they've taken up drilling at angles...

Overall a very good article for a mainstream rag...

Dino - check your pm's...
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Re: Peak Oil Crisis: One Year in Review by Tom Whipple

Unread postby Keymaster » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 10:49:43

The mainstream media does many disservices to the American Public. I liken one element of MSM propaganda to rabies. Media outlets pounce on a story that the American public, the U.S. govt and American corporations perceive to be important, then clamp their jaws on the jugular. Meanwhile, truly meaningful stories, often perceived as negative to American interests, or too complicated for the everyday Joe to grasp, are barely - if at all - mentioned.

Case in point. Watching the routers at CNN yesterday morning, and generally listening to CNNI, American Morning, Live Today and Live From, I counted more than 1,000 mentions of Zarqawi's death.

Not one mention of the Russian oil bourse and its potentially devestating implications, should other countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation follow suite.

Zarqawi: 1,000+ Russian oil bourse and the SCO: 0

Talk about a spanking. Shouldn't there be, like in baseball, oh I don't know, a 100 mention rule or something?

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Re: Peak Oil Crisis: One Year in Review by Tom Whipple

Unread postby Keymaster » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 10:58:29

And, I might add, there is a certain unpleasant irony in the "Fourth Estate," the "free press" and other MSM monikers. American media outlets are supposed to be the bridge between government policy, principle (or lack thereof) and public awareness. We are responsible for educating the American public so they can make informed voting decisions. We are responsible as a check against government corruption.

Shamefully, we have failed you.

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Re: Peak Oil Crisis: One Year in Review by Tom Whipple

Unread postby BMW_rider » Fri 09 Jun 2006, 12:32:59

Keymaster wrote:The mainstream media does many disservices to the American Public. I liken one element of MSM propaganda to rabies. Media outlets pounce on a story that the American public, the U.S. govt and American corporations perceive to be important, then clamp their jaws on the jugular. Meanwhile, truly meaningful stories, often perceived as negative to American interests, or too complicated for the everyday Joe to grasp, are barely - if at all - mentioned.

Case in point. Watching the routers at CNN yesterday morning, and generally listening to CNNI, American Morning, Live Today and Live From, I counted more than 1,000 mentions of Zarqawi's death.

Not one mention of the Russian oil bourse and its potentially devestating implications, should other countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation follow suite.

Zarqawi: 1,000+ Russian oil bourse and the SCO: 0

Talk about a spanking. Shouldn't there be, like in baseball, oh I don't know, a 100 mention rule or something?

Keymaster

Keep in mind that news organizations are private companies which are compelled to generate profits. They will show news that will keep people tuned in and buying newspapers so they can keep ad revenue flowing in.

This is why "If it bleeds it leads" is the mantra of modern day news organizations. Although I'm not sure this was any different 100 years ago.
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Re: Peak Oil Crisis: One Year in Review by Tom Whipple

Unread postby peaker_2005 » Sat 10 Jun 2006, 09:30:03

Keymaster wrote:government policy, principle (or lack thereof)

Keymaster


:lol:
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Audio interview with Tom Whipple (stream or download)

Unread postby skeptik » Fri 22 Dec 2006, 10:36:40

Tom Whipple is a retired CIA analyst (married to a Virgina Senator) who has been writing a column on Peak Oil for a small local paper, The Falls Church News Press, for the last 2 years, and also produces a newsletter for ASPO-USA.

He talks about Peak Oil for just over an hour to George Kenney, retired State Department analyst and who now runs the Electric Politics website.

http://www.electricpolitics.com/podcast ... _drop.html
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Tom Whipple on Electric Politics Audio Show

Unread postby Bleep » Fri 22 Dec 2006, 21:09:08

http://www.electricpolitics.com/podcast ... _drop.html

Tom Whipple, a retired senior CIA analyst writes Peak Oil articles for a tiny newspaper, The Falls Church News Press.
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Re: Tom Whipple on Electric Politics Audio Show

Unread postby Bleep » Sat 23 Dec 2006, 16:48:25

Some transcripting:
30 minutes 28 seconds into the interview:

Tom Whipple: I sort of think there's a possibility that, you know, the Saudi's could, you know...what leverage they have over the US? Nothing but oil.

George Kenney: yeah

Tom Whipple: [...] What do the Saudis want? The want the US to [...] stay in Baghdad from now until this thing is settled even if it takes a hundred years.

George Kenney: Isn't that a dilemma? Wow.

Tom Whipple: Yeah, isn't that a great dilemma. They do not want us to leave. What hold do they have over us? Well that's quite easy--the oil thing. Can they increase oil production? No. Can they shut it off? Sure, that's easy, just turn the valve.

George Kenney: mm-hmm.

Tom Whipple: They shut it off. Does it cost them anything? No, because the price will triple. They could cut the production in half and the price would triple--overnight. [...] Personally, I think they are putting the screws on us right now.
Bingo! OPEC has started dropping exports; since Sept 2006 to Dec 2006 over 5 million barrels a day less exports.
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