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Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Fri 17 Mar 2017, 05:16:21
by baha
My current position is there is more than enough CO2 already in the atmosphere to end humans. My fascination with geology makes it hard for me to think short term. My personal lack of descendants means my only immediate concern is survival. I don't see peak oil as an existential threat. In fact, if we survive, the whole industrial revolution will be just a blip in the human story. If we don't survive it will be what ended us!

So the alternative is human survival and success...
Our most effective weapon is our minds. We only use it to the greatest effect when we are threatened with destruction. As weather events kill more and more people we will begin to see the threat for what it is and start spending the time and money needed to address the issue. All we are left with is geo-engineering so we will develop processes to remove CO2 from the air and sequester it underground. It will be based on natural processes. The end product (algea based slime) will be very similar to oil and will be injected into abandoned wells in Texas under supervision of the ROCKMAN. The existing wind farms will be used to power the process.

In the meantime small mirrors will be seeded into the arctic vortex to cool the local area and allow the ice cap to reform bringing the weather back into BAU. So Planty can safely go fishing.

Of course these processes will take at least 50 years to make a difference so the end population of 1 billion will have a much better chance of survival. Colonies on Mars will have to wait for the next technical revolution when we find a truly sustainable energy source. Unfortunately KJ passed on when the interplanetary shuttle suffocated on methane farts.

After another 1000 years the next Ice age will be unavoidable and we will dig all that shit up and burn it all over again :)

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Fri 17 Mar 2017, 05:27:30
by baha
I've got a better idea...we could just nuke Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei and the resulting Mega-eruption would cool the planet for several decades and kill off 6 billion people very quickly :)

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Fri 17 Mar 2017, 11:51:50
by baha
I forgot to mention onlooker and Ghung sitting in the background eating popcorn and giggling :)

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Fri 17 Mar 2017, 13:09:28
by ralfy
Squilliam wrote:I would say the glitch is between 2. and 3. Even if oil peaks it isn't the death-knell to the global economy people say it is. Oil is a 3 factor product to begin with. It is a source of energy, a storage medium for energy and a pre-cursor product for other useful products. Even if it loses importance as a major source of energy it will still be important for 2/3. The question really is more about whether the global economy can replace oil as a source of energy. I think that it is possible because renewable energy can take a lot of the slack with respect to overall energy production, and alternative transport options will become increasingly important as oil becomes expensive because it will make other choices relatively better. Electric trains and cars as well as bikes can get people where they need to go, and what's better is that their production relies on electricity or coal.


Renewable energy has low energy returns and quantity. You will find more details in other threads in this forum.

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Fri 17 Mar 2017, 20:49:55
by Squilliam
ralfy wrote:
Squilliam wrote:I would say the glitch is between 2. and 3. Even if oil peaks it isn't the death-knell to the global economy people say it is. Oil is a 3 factor product to begin with. It is a source of energy, a storage medium for energy and a pre-cursor product for other useful products. Even if it loses importance as a major source of energy it will still be important for 2/3. The question really is more about whether the global economy can replace oil as a source of energy. I think that it is possible because renewable energy can take a lot of the slack with respect to overall energy production, and alternative transport options will become increasingly important as oil becomes expensive because it will make other choices relatively better. Electric trains and cars as well as bikes can get people where they need to go, and what's better is that their production relies on electricity or coal.


Renewable energy has low energy returns and quantity. You will find more details in other threads in this forum.


I am aware of what renewable energy can and cannot do. I am a veteran of The Oil Drum.

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Sat 18 Mar 2017, 21:18:09
by ralfy
Squilliam wrote:
ralfy wrote:
Squilliam wrote:I would say the glitch is between 2. and 3. Even if oil peaks it isn't the death-knell to the global economy people say it is. Oil is a 3 factor product to begin with. It is a source of energy, a storage medium for energy and a pre-cursor product for other useful products. Even if it loses importance as a major source of energy it will still be important for 2/3. The question really is more about whether the global economy can replace oil as a source of energy. I think that it is possible because renewable energy can take a lot of the slack with respect to overall energy production, and alternative transport options will become increasingly important as oil becomes expensive because it will make other choices relatively better. Electric trains and cars as well as bikes can get people where they need to go, and what's better is that their production relies on electricity or coal.


Renewable energy has low energy returns and quantity. You will find more details in other threads in this forum.


I am aware of what renewable energy can and cannot do. I am a veteran of The Oil Drum.


Then you know that it's not possible for renewable energy to replace oil.

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Sat 18 Mar 2017, 21:30:29
by AdamB
Squilliam wrote:I am aware of what renewable energy can and cannot do. I am a veteran of The Oil Drum.


The second sentence discredits the first. Not only did the Oil Drum not know much about renewables (not a surprise, it wasn't called "The Renewable Drum" after all), but it also turned out to not know much of anything about fundamental resource economics as they relate to oil. You might as well claim to have been a veteran of LATOC, when it comes to how reality treated the visions of those two blogs.

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Sun 19 Mar 2017, 07:32:02
by baha
The purpose of this exercise is not to analyze someone else's logic. But to gain insight into your own. What is your expected end game...and how can we avoid it?

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Tue 21 Mar 2017, 08:41:20
by baha
I just tried to access this thread and got a SQL error "too many connections". Does the system know me well or what? I think my argument against technology has pissed off the cloud :)

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Thu 23 Mar 2017, 12:46:58
by evilgenius
Because peak oil is so resistant to panic, and yet not resistant to planning, I'm reluctant to run headlong with it as the cause of either the next big failure or some downward trend that the world won't recover from. In addition, although I think climate change is the most pressing cause before mankind, it is not going to receive the kind of attention it deserves, by a long shot. There is something that is making great headway, however, while the risk associated with it is almost being totally ignored.

Only visionary people like Elon Musk are talking about how dangerous artificial intelligence could be for the world economy. I'm not talking about AI as some kind of rogue anti-human danger. I'm talking about how important people spending money is to any economy. People who don't have jobs don't tend to spend much money. The speed of the change that is coming to jobs is unprecedented. It could be that within five to seven years, for instance, there won't be a delivery or passenger carrying job left that isn't being done by some kind of automated vehicle. The same sort of job destruction could be coming to higher level professional jobs as well.

What people spend is what shows up eventually as earnings per share. There could be a massive revaluation of listed companies coming. Some companies are actually positioned to take advantage, like Facebook. Others are not, like JCPenny. In order for outfits like Penny's or Macy's to survive there will have to be an economic reckoning where both the real estate they occupy falls in value, so that they pay less for it every month, and they will have to find a way to become discounters, like Ross and TJMaxx are. They may also have to get away with paying less to employees. It's going to be harder and harder for brick and mortar to compete with online retailing once cheaper shipping because of fewer humans in the marketing chain becomes a reality.

You can only offset so many job losses with cuts in immigration. Those cuts will probably become more aggressive than anyone thinks right now. And if automation comes on as fast as it seems it may, those cuts may not be enough, though they will redirect people's attention from the root cause of what is going on.

I would look for the situation to reach toward an equilibrium, or at least to get worse at a rate that people find they can get comfortable with. Like Elon Musk, I would also look for a much higher average unemployment level. He runs his businesses within the belt that thrives on the innovative edge. There's plenty of capital there, and an expanding market. It's all those companies stuck in old models or burdened by huge pension liabilities that are going to suffer the most.

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Mar 2017, 07:14:36
by baha
Thank you EG, this is the reality we are living. The old business models are die-ing and the people who have lived by this model will be hurting.

We have to accept changes to the system. Single payer health care is a good example, we can no longer afford for insurance companies to take their cut off the top. And exorbitant pensions will die the death of failed corporations.

I can only hope the new models will be personal and not based on corporate entities. Connections will get us thru, not the free market...

Re: Doomer Logic Glitch

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Mar 2017, 16:07:32
by Squilliam
baha wrote:
We have to accept changes to the system. Single payer health care is a good example, we can no longer afford for insurance companies to take their cut off the top. And exorbitant pensions will die the death of failed corporations.



It's not just insurance companies. Everyone clips the ticket, so to speak.

1. Your doctors get paid twice as much as everywhere else.
2. Your drugs cost significantly more.
3. You have silly malpractice laws that no-one else has.
4. You spend significant sums on the wrong parts -- last 6 months of life (governments tend to be smarter).
5. Politicians have no incentive to reign in costs when they legislate how other people spend their money. It's even worse than spending other people's money because at least if the government spent the money they would feel more personally attached to saving money.
6. You have a silly meme that governments are inefficient at everything.
7. Insurance companies have costs/profit that governments won't worry about. Not so many forms to fill out when the government pays for everything for instance, and no need for call centres either.