Doomer Logic Glitch
Posted: Tue 31 Aug 2004, 07:07:09
Doomer Logic Glitch:
--> R.Heinberg
--> D.Pfeiffer
____________________________
The doom argument in a nutshell:
(1) World oil production will peak, therefore
(2) Oil consumption in the US and other countries will peak, therefore
(3) The economies of the US and other countries will go down the toilet.
The glitch is between steps (1) and (2). Who says a world production peak means US consumption has to go down? That's not necessarily true. Maybe world production starts declining, and US consumption doesn't, or even goes up. After all, the US is rich, and the schoolyard bully.
Obviously this situation can't go on forever, but it's certainly a good stopgap, and I don't see anything to really prevent it from happening.
Or consider Canada. The world peak is irrelevant there, because their production's going up, and it's going to keep going up for quite some time with the syncrude. So their economy's not going to crash, and the party's still on! No threat to crappy debt money up there. Don't run for the hills, just move up to Vancouver.
{note to self: frame as geopolitical dynamics wrt supply/demand; EE}
--> R.Heinberg
--> D.Pfeiffer
____________________________
The doom argument in a nutshell:
(1) World oil production will peak, therefore
(2) Oil consumption in the US and other countries will peak, therefore
(3) The economies of the US and other countries will go down the toilet.
The glitch is between steps (1) and (2). Who says a world production peak means US consumption has to go down? That's not necessarily true. Maybe world production starts declining, and US consumption doesn't, or even goes up. After all, the US is rich, and the schoolyard bully.
Obviously this situation can't go on forever, but it's certainly a good stopgap, and I don't see anything to really prevent it from happening.
Or consider Canada. The world peak is irrelevant there, because their production's going up, and it's going to keep going up for quite some time with the syncrude. So their economy's not going to crash, and the party's still on! No threat to crappy debt money up there. Don't run for the hills, just move up to Vancouver.
{note to self: frame as geopolitical dynamics wrt supply/demand; EE}