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Life in a PO world - the year is 2050

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Life in a PO world - the year is 2050

Unread postby cube » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 05:01:16

Seeing that there are just as many opinions as there are people :-D describe what a PO world will look like. Here's my prediction for the year 2050.

On the surface the world is a lot like today. People still live in the suburbs and commute in traffic plagued freeways in single occupancy vehicles burning gasoline. The airline industry still exists and truck drivers still make a profit even with diesel at $8/gallon. (year 2005 dollars) And those ridiculously annoying environmentalists are still complaining that people aren't taking public transit. Walmart still sells low quality (made in China) consumer goods. Globalization is alive and well.

But....

Almost every vehicle is a hybrid vehicle, especially trucks. Those commuter cars weigh less then 1000 pounds and have only a 3 gallon gas tank. Nuclear power is back in style. Nuclear powered cargo ships and even cruiseliners are the new thing. Using nuclear reactors to heat the tar sands of Alberta to extract oil is a mature technology. Every luxury that existed before PO is till available, like Starbucks coffee. However life in general is not as good. Just about everything is more expensive and people have less disposable income. B/c airtravel is so expensive it's not used as much. The "dirty dog" aka greyhound bus is the prefured method of domestic travel.
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Unread postby linlithgowoil » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 05:40:49

like you, im expecting a gradual degradation of living standards over a protracted period. peak oil isnt an overnight event.

however, i'm also expecting a break through in fusion power within the next 15-20 years, so that would be another thing to consider. old nukes would be being phased out completely by 2050, and fusion would be the new king of energy.

public transport would likely be more and more electrified as fusion produced virtually limitless electricity, and hydrogen would finally be viable - meaning that the private car would be alive and well.

of course, i expect government to make owning a car more and more expensive because they will have to. there are only so many roads, and restrictions will have to be made.

air travel will continue to use good old petroleum - one of the only forms of transport still to use it.

2050 might see a lot of problems due to climate change though, but itll still be relatively gradual.

in all, i expect things to be a bit like now, but simply more crowded, a bit dirtier and a lot more expensive.
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Unread postby turmoil » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 05:52:51

don't forget the chinese and the indians. They all drive electric hybrid cars too. :roll:
"If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes

"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
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Unread postby jato » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 06:01:20

2050:

- Earth's population 1 billion and still falling.
- Virtually no one has any type of functioning motor vehicle transportation.
- Disease, murder and starvation are the norm (now tapering off as the population has been lowered).
- Virtually no other forms of electrical power exist. A few PV panels float around, but there is no functional equipment for them to be of any use.
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Unread postby Raxozanne » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 06:04:23

jato wrote:2050:

- Earth's population 1 billion and still falling.
- Virtually no one has any type of functioning motor vehicle transportation.
- Disease, murder and starvation are the norm (now tapering off as the population has been lowered).
- Virtually no other forms of electrical power exist. A few PV panels float around, but there is no functional equipment for them to be of any use.


- horses as transportation have made a huge comeback
- most survivors are farmers
Hello, my name is Rax. I live in the Amazon jungle with a bunch of women. We are super eco feminists and our favourite passtimes are dangling men by their ankles and discussing peak oil. - apparently
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Unread postby dissimulo » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 06:23:00

2050 was the year the power came back on. Even though things were getting bad back in '20, people still didn't really take the problem seriously. Ten years of bad recession had crippled the economy and more people were homeless and hungry than the heights of the Great Depression. But, somehow, the people were still waiting for something to happen. Everyone assumed that things would get better. Science always brings a better tomorrow.

Well, science didn't come through this time. By '25 personal motor transportation was ended for all but the very rich. The government nationalized all power production, rail, and air transportation. The marginal suburban middle class dropped in with the rest of us lower class folks overnight. This was the first year of the "in n' outs" - busses came to the suburbs loaded with food for distribution and left to take the workers into the city.

In '29, the dispute in central Asia overheated and the nukes got dropped. Everybody called it a "small exchange", except all those farmers in California that had to decontaminate every crop before it went to market. The radiation wasn't too bad, but the jet stream just kept bringing it in.

In most ways it was a good thing though. After getting their dusting and the plaugue of '30, China settled down. In fact, it sobered up most of the world and nations spent more time looking inward, trying to solve their own problems.

By '30, things were bad in the States. Enthusiasm for funding nuke plants fell quite a bit when people started to realize that prices on electric cars would never be affordable again and, of course, after the little mishap in Las Vegas. Coal plants were faster to build and they didn't poison folks quite as fast as a nuke plant gone bad.

But, they had their costs. Because of the costs to build plants at a distance and maintain the extra infrastructure, they just kept building them closer to the cities. That black coal smog in New York, Chicago, and DC made the old LA smog look like paradise.

I remember, as a young man, working in India for several months and contending with the daily power outages. I felt a certain sense of shame in the '30s when the daytime power allowance was reduced to four hours. That was when things really started to get ugly in the cities. With so many folks out of work, and the power (and entertainment) taken away, crime went off the scale.

I remember hearing on the news how great Europe was doing with all their nuclear power and public transportation. There was a lot of information to the contrary on the internet, talking about hot summers, cold winters, droughts, crop failures, and terrorism. I was never sure which picture to believe and I still don't know.

Those were bad years, but the '40s were the worst of all. Drought set in hard all around the country and crops failed. The worsening state of the roads and the lack of rail-to-market transport infrastructure made it difficult to get the crops that did come in where they needed to go. For the first time, food wasn't always available to the employed.

The '40s also were the exodus from the desert. People had been leaving the southwest for years, but when the water transport systems started to break down, it was the end. So many folks headed for Oregon and Washington that those states limited immigration. The federal government overruled them, but they just ignored the feds. Rumors were rampant that California, Oregon, and Washington were going to seceed from the US and form their own country.

In '44 the US population was 312 million and unemployment was 31% (marginal employment was another 17%). In '45 we had the famine and the Brazilian Flu. One of the saddest parts of being poor and weak is that things tend to only get worse. By '47, unemployment was down to 19%, but the US population was down to 262 million.

'47 was the year the power went out. Lots of folks went to work trying to put the pieces back together. Building infrastructure is not easy when the raw materials are scarce, the factories are few, the pieces have to be transported long distances, and there is no money to be made. Nonetheless, Americans proved they'll work for no more than a meal and, very slowly, some of the critical pieces were repaired and the slow process of building more nuclear plants has started again.

So, 2050. This year the power came back - for a few hours a day at least. Most folks got on fine without it. Turns out that the need for power is generated by how much you have. As we lost it a bit at a time, it turned out we needed less and less. But, having a light to read by and a little TV is nice.

Don't get me wrong - I'd go back to the wonderous days of 2005 in an instant. We still don't know what the future holds. Life is hard and lean and there is still no miracle science that is going to keep us in energy forever. I'm an old man now and I don't know if I'll be able to work the garden next year. Medicine is not what it used to be and I pray every day that I don't become a burden to my family.

I remember thinking one day I'd hear of men leaving to colonize distant stars.
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Unread postby Jack » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 06:36:07

Here's mine: Link
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Unread postby linlithgowoil » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 06:38:18

2050:

- Earth's population 1 billion and still falling.


i doubt we'd see 5.5 billion population reduction over the next 40 years, that would involve so many bodies that they'd be piling up in the streets.

i actually think the population will still be slowly growing by 2050, but that starvation will be a lot more common - even in the rich west, but there will still be a rich class who can eat all they want as they have all the cash.

i definetly dont think things wil ever be as good as they have been ever again. although im not a doomer, i dont believe that the quality of life for the majority of people will be better or even the same in 40 years - it will be worse. but, it wont be so bad - we'll gradually get used to it, and the late 20th century/early 21st century will be looked back on very fondly - much like many people look back to the 50's and 60's very fondly nowadays where everything was better.
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Unread postby Madpaddy » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 07:05:39

2050:

Earth's population 3.1 billion. No one forsaw the rapid collapse in the effectiveness of antibiotics against age old killers such as TB, measles etc. Even smallpox reemerged to kill millions along with a virulent and mutated form of the hospital superbug MRSA. One in 6 children worldwide die before the age of 3. Flooding from the melting of the polar ice caps has left hundreds of cities abandoned and underwater. Massive and pointless engineering projects were undertaken to try and preserve some cities. The greatest of these follies was an attempt to build an dyke across the straits of Gibraltar to preserve the great urban centres of the Mediterranean. 1st world living as we understand it today is the preserve of no more than 10% of the worlds population. Noone can venture outdoors in direct sunlight without at least factor 30 suncream. There are approx 400 million automobiles worldwide which are mainly battery electric. There is still law and order but it is localised with communities having their own police force. Life expectancy is 50 years of age in Europe and America which is 15 years better than Africa and Asia. China and India's pollution became so bad in the 2020's that huge area became uninhabitable. China tried to seize land in Russia which led to a massive nuclear exchange between those 2 countries. India suffered from fallout and of course the flooding. China and India's combined population is now 900 million. Russia's population is 50 million (2048 est.)

Air travel is confined to 8 major hubs. Tokyo, Frankfurt, Sydney, Los Angeles, New York, Rio De Janeiro and Cape Town. This is by means of upgraded Airbus 380's in general. The president of the western alliance (a collection of mainly former NATO countries is Ewan Blair who is married to Chelsea Clinton).

The largest tourist destination in the world is Ireland where pilgrims visit a shrine in west Cork to the visionary Colin Campbell. In general tourism does not take place. People take vacation (if they can afford it) by going into virtual reality worlds. Brasil are the current football world cup holders (some things never change) and Wales are the Rugby world cup holders (now I'm really taking the piss).
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Unread postby Madpaddy » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 07:12:15

I left out one of my air hubs which was supposed to be London but in retrospect the Thames barrier may have failed by then so we need to move it up to Birmingham. :P
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Unread postby seldom_seen » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 08:27:07

In the year 2050. Much of North America became an arid desert, from the southwest up through the midwest and much of the East. This was a result of the great deforestation that occured as millions of people turned to wood to heat their homes and cook their food among other uses. An unstable climate with long-term droughts also contributed to this phenomenon.

The majority of the remaining inhabitants (many died through disease, famine, civil and foreign wars, and just utter hopelessness when they couldn't fuel their automobiles) were interned in Chevron "Human Energy" labor camps. These camps consisted mainly of agricultural, coal mining and salvage operations. Loyal interns were able to move up in the corporation as long as they were obedient "team players," and were rewarded for reporting any sort of dissident behavior or spies from the "outside." The elite members of Chevron still drove cars and maintained control over a substantial amount of military equipment and personnel.

The Chevron corporation (which basically assumed the role of de facto government) was not concerned about military or economic conquest abroad or even south of what was the US border with Mexico. Globalism was six feet under, and it just took too much energy to concern themselves with anything across oceans or over long distances. Their main concern consisted in controlling what remained of the natural resources in the norhwest. Mainly what was once, Montana, Idaho, Washington, British Columbia, Alberta, Yukon Territory and Alaska.

The only problem with their plan is that the northwest region was the homeland of the insurgents. The insurgents were not centerally organized, but consisted of small communities and tribal groups that were united only by their desire to beat back and destroy the Chevron corporation. Chevron maintained a modest air force and would often bomb or strafe these people on sight. The insurgents took cover in deep mountain valleys and large wilderness areas. Travelling mainly by horse and bicycle, the insurgents were focused on destroying Chevron's infrastructure. They targetted oil and arms depots, military equipment and automobiles.

Meanwhile, the great cities of North America were interesting places indeed. A walk through deserted downtown Seattle, one would find a great array of plant life growing out of and overtaking the skyscrapers. Here and there on 1st avenue, douglas fir trees popped up through the pavement. A look upward and one would see a great amount of bird life flying from building to building. A glance to the right at a family of racoons living in a dilapidated metro bus. As time passed the salmon population started to rebound in puget sound, and a bald eagle could be spotted perched on a street light pecking away at a salmon carcass.

About 3,000 people now live in Nevada. Hardy people who could get by in the great basin. Las Vegas was a surreal and eerie place. A decayed monument to the unreality of the oil age. Las Vegas became part of folklore. A foreboding tale of the misguided ones who chose to build great cities in the desert. The suffering was immense in Los Vegas, as well as Phoenix and Los Angeles. People often chose not to talk about what happened in Los Angeles where man turned against man.

In the Southeast, those who were not interned in the Chevron camps, sought refuge in the smoky mountains and the backwoods and bayous of Louisiana. Atlanta was surrounded by Chevron forces and was the regional command and control center. A new breed of homo scavenger was often seen prowling the great urban sprawl that surrounds Atlanta.

As for the Northeast, Manhatten naturally became Chevron's penitentiary for "dissidents, traitors and enemies of the corporate state." Small sailing vessels would often wash ashore loaded with Europeans fleeing the Islamic caliphate centered in Belgium that now ruled much of Europe. The Europeans were simply outbred and overwhelmed by the influx of refugees fleeing the decaying oil-less states of the Middle East. The Europeans were happy to join the Chevron camps after living under sharia law as infidels.

Australia suffered some serious droughts and hardships, not much was heard from down under given their remoteness, accept legend of a man called Max.

China wasn't really phased by oil depletion. Every now and then some strange avian flu would wipe out 500 million of them, but they still had 1.5 billion left. So they kept on doing what they do best, raising 10,000 ducks per acre. Japan had it tough, they relied on the bounty of the sea to feed their island nation, yet the fuel to power the great industrial fishing fleets couldn't be found. So they once again raised the flag of war and invaded their neighbors.

As for Mexico, they no longer had any reason to immigrate north, and finally did what needed to be done. They took up guns and ammunition and settled the score with 'federales' who had their foot stamped down on their necks for so many years. The liberation of Mexico was one of the few shining lights of the post peak age.

Brazil did okay for themselves. They were too busy dancing and making music to get caught up in the doom and gloom of oil depletion. They actually found a way to harness energy from the Samba. The Argentines continued to look down on the Brazilians thinking they were the superior people of south america, but they were just jealous because they weren't having as much fun.

So it was in 2050.
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Meanwhile, here in Japan...

Unread postby freetoken » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 08:29:05

In Japan, the population will continue it's decline, to around 85 million.

Hybrid autos do exist but are for the more successful in life, less than 1 in 4 households operate them now, though that ratio had peaked to around 1 in 2 back in the hybrid's heyday; the most likely non-self powered vehicle to be used on a daily basis is the motorcycle, the market for which exploded around 2010 as gas prices more than doubled in that decade; of course man-powered bikes are as plentiful as ever. Most petrol fuel is consumed by the trucking industry.

People are heathier than they were 45 years ago, as the excessive consumption of packaged foods was gradually replaced with a more historical Japanese diet. Few people commute to work with their automobiles, so the extra walk every day to the train station helps too. Also, as the aging population started to break the socialized medical system, the government finally admitted that smoking tobacco was addictive and causes health problems, finally sold off it's interest in the tobacco industry, and even instituted laws prohibiting smoking in many areas. In fact, there are now several new laws pertaining to health related matters, restricting the liberties that Japanese enjoyed just a half a century ago....

Principal electricity source is from breeder reactors, which happen to also supply the plutonium for Japan's limited nuclear arsenal, which has helped keep the peace in NE asia after the American withdrawl. Oil and LNG imports still account for around 10% of energy used. The "alternative" energy sources still account for less than 1/3 of all energy consumption, but are slowly growing.

There is a draft now, for the young men. Many of the very aged are uncomfortable with the idea, but most Japanese agree that the Navy requires more personnel, as more and more escorts are needed through the Indian ocean, and then of course through the the whole of the seas of SE asia.... Oh, and the uranium bearing ships from Australia and Canada of course get dual escorts, from two navies at a time.

Times were tough of course during the previous few decades of depression, with the loss of all of those markets, but the Japanese have always survived these things. Now that there are somewhat stable governments appearing in China and Arabia, and North America looks like it will be able to buy things again, export and import businesses are looking profitable again.

Life had been easier back at the turn of the century than it is now, but the fireworks still go off every summer, and the matsuri are as fun as ever, the young women still look good in their summer yukatas....

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Unread postby Geology_Guy » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 08:31:31

With all those hybrid vehicles what about the batteries? Are they lead acid or more exotic? Lead pollution? Will they use more exotic metals? What are the impacts of all those batteries floating around?
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Unread postby Madpaddy » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 09:09:12

Geology-guy,
Ok make that 20million battery electric cars. Life just got even worse.

Spoil sport - that was like asking why the bad guys don't just shoot Bond in the 007 movies or my favourite at the moment - why did the aliens wait 2 million years to take over earth in war of the worlds and why despite all their planning they had neglected to analyse the atmoshpere and see if there was any bacteria there that could kill them.

Dumbass aliens.
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Unread postby Kickinthegob » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 09:41:14

2050 Earth

I will not be around so my prediction is nothing but doom...

Population - unknown and decreasing, significantly less than the 6.5 billion now.

Environment - generally toxic to humans and most other life forms on planet earth.

Global Warming - is a reality to be reckoned with every day.

Industrial Society - is history, all humans alive spend most of their time scavenging, hunting and growing food.

Disease - evolved to take advantage of a weak human immune system created by centuries of isolation from nature, massive die offs.

War - the worst in the history of mankind and for a good reason, energy and resource scarcity.

Famine - large regions become uninhabitable by humans, many humans do not escape.

The human race with their big brains appears to be collectively retarded IMHO. We are running out of everything, oil is just one item but what really freaks me out is loss of biodiversity and our natural habitat. The die off has already started (and completed in the form of extinction) for many species of plant and animal life, humans being at the top of the food chain will not be far behind, 2050 is pushing it at this rate 8O
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Unread postby Markos101 » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 10:50:48

By 2050, oil will be at around 30% of current supply levels on a per-year basis. By that time, I suspect that the global population will have reduced due to the unescapable laws of thermodynamics by around 10-15%, going against the current trend of 2% a year.

A net decrease in energy availability will also cause a crash in our current financial system. I do not believe that people will endure 45 years of this, therefore I think that we will see a return to gold backed money, or silver backed money, or platinum backed money. Because of the forces wishing to globalise us, it is possible by this time that we will have a single commodity-backed currency administered by the World Bank. Hopefully by this time, we won't have unqualified University lecturers such as Paul Wolfowitz running it, and it won't be used to buy up third world governments via loan conditions to bring them into this global governance.

Economic growth will be non-existent because of the lack of availability of cheap energy. There will have been some efforts by governments and entrepreneurs to profit out of the descent in energy availability through wind turbines, solar panels, and other such technologies and this industry will be one of the few growing amongst the net decline. However, the energy use on a daily basis of today will not be present.

The availability of food will be far more scarce, leading likely to people turning to government to limit supply and consumption. Food will be rationed, and probably secured by government facilities to prevent plunder. There will be a net transfer of labour to the food and energy industries, with non-essential industries taking a more exagerated decline than the average net decline.

I hope television at this stage will be regarded as an unnecessary consumer of energy, but it will also limit communication of central government. Therefore this will lead to by this stage far more security forces to enforce the central government's will. There may be pockets of rebellion.

The energy decline will happen in chaotic peaks and troughs, but the net direction will be downward, just like the net direction has been upward for the 20th century. I think the third world will be hit by famine and disease, and on a more limited level, so will the west.

The biggest danger is blackouts and lack of jobs causing higher birth rates, which will ironically cause greater hassles. Without television sex will become more of regular activity and the lack of availability of contraception will lead to an increasing infant mortality rate.

I think the state of affairs will be far more of a martial law, totalitarian affair - rather like is steadily being implemented today in reaction to 'terrorism'.

I say population will gradually decline to pre-industrial levels, simply because industry will be declining for the next century.

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Unread postby parainwater » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 10:54:09

The total collapse of the US dollar, extreme unemployment, scarcity of energy and the federal/corporate government's fascist attempt to
control the situation resulted in a limited civil war. The US became
splintered along geographical and ethnic regions with varying
amounts of autonomy. The US southwest became sparcely populated
due to the extreme shortage of water from continuous droughts.
A hybrid government was formed between Mexico and the remaining
US citizens over some of the southwest (Arizona, New Mexico and the
southern most part of California). The rest of California formed its own
country as did Texas and Vermont. Since the US lost most of its
manufacturing ability in the late 20th and early 21st century, people
had to relearn how to make the most basic staples of life. The
former US has a large cottage industry and organic farming. Most people grow their own food. Small
towns boomed in population and large cities became mostly
abandoned. Energy is a premium and many times a luxury. There
are vary few centralized power plants left. Each town and even
each home acquires power by whatever means are available. The
midwest is a strong user of windpower. The southwest primary energy
is solar. A combination of biomass and micro-hydro is used elsewhere. The population of the former US is around 100 million due to disease, hunger and violence.
Most of the strife has ceased by 2050. What little transportation is left is
powered by home brewed alcohol, bio-diesel, compressed hydrogen, electricity and even wood burning steam engines. Gasoline is way to
expensive for all but the wealthiest. Banking has become a relic of the
past and most transactions are made through bartering, gold, silver
or other usefull comodities. Western man is learning how to live with
nature without exploiting or destroying the environement. However,
there is widespread environemental damage leftover from the desperation
of the first four decades of the 21st century. The suburbs are abandoned
and have been canabalized for materials. All regions of the former US
embarked on a massive de-paving of roads and demolition of former
consumer "box" stores in order to reclaim land for agriculture. After
50 years of turmoil the future of manking is starting to look promising.
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Unread postby gego » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 11:42:52

Raxozanne wrote:
jato wrote:2050:

- Earth's population 1 billion and still falling.
- Virtually no one has any type of functioning motor vehicle transportation.
- Disease, murder and starvation are the norm (now tapering off as the population has been lowered).
- Virtually no other forms of electrical power exist. A few PV panels float around, but there is no functional equipment for them to be of any use.


- horses as transportation have made a huge comeback
- most survivors are farmers


Levels of radiation from nuclear weapons detonated in the 2020 US civil war continue to remain high.
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Unread postby Cyrus » Tue 09 Aug 2005, 12:08:12

I think lots of these predictions are very good, although some (not all), are not touching upon environmental effects.
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