[Plantagenet]

This morning the BLS announced the US unemployment rate fell to 4.9%. Anytime the US unemployment rate drops below 5% the US workforce is considered to be fully employed

so-this-is-what-full-employment-looks-like

President Obama wasted no time taking a victory lap, crediting himself and his economic policies and overall brilliance for guiding the US economy to full employment.

US-unemployment-dropped-to-4-9-percent-thanks-to-Obama

But where is the joy?



Here we are with a booming economy, full employment, strong dollar, stock market up, interest rates down-----but only Wall Street is happy.

If you listen to the Rs you'd think the country is in a depression and Obama is to blame. If you listen to Ds, you'd think the country is in a depression and Wall Street is to blame.

Maybe we should just all relax and be happy about the economy right now. Full employment is pretty good. Things aren't perfect, of course, but perhaps this is the best of all possible worlds. As Hillary keeps pointing out, sometimes you have to grow up and accept reality, rather than wasting time chasing after impossible dreams.

[onlooker]

Or maybe the numbers are a bit skewered around election time coincidentally

[Plantagenet]

Or maybe the numbers are a bit skewered around election time coincidentally

Possibly. But if the BLS is cooking the numbers to help the Ds, then why are the Ds all wailing about how poor the economy is?

I can see why Bernie is complaining about low wages and Wall Street and stuff like that, but why isn't Hillary spending her time saying how great the economy is and giving Obama the credit he deserves for bringing the US to full employment, rather then wailing about the evils of Wall Street right along with Bernie??.

[onlooker]

Sophistry, Plant. They can easily utter contradictory declarations depending on the audience or their internal polling numbers. If the audience wants to hear some good news wallah full employment. If the time is ripe for some wall street bashing or such, well the economy is in the dumps and we will fix it by taxing the rich and increasing govt programs. That is the formula and has been for quite some time. Say what they want to hear.

[Timo]

The employment numbers are probably true, but that doesn't mean much. The reason no one is excited is because wages haven't grown at all, and people are working well below their means for a fraction of what they're truly worth. Plus, the quality of the jobs we have is below our expectations, as well. Unemployment may be low, but job satisfaction is even lower. Job security is even lower than that! And working for retirement??? Forget about it!!! We'll probably all be working in retirement just to make ends meet because we're not earning enough now to save enough for later. Yeah! I'm plenty excited about the state of our economy. Woo-hoo! I'm 50 years old and have a job. Only 30 or 40 years before i can finally die and get some long-deserved rest.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Or maybe the numbers are a bit skewered around election time coincidentally

Yes. The endless cry of the short term hard crash doomer. "Any positive numbers MUST be wrong!"

IN 1998 Hillary lost any credibility she may have had with me by claiming a "Vast right-wing conspiracy" instead of admitting that Bill Clinton was a liar. Hint: Bill Clinton having "pants on fire" is the historical record, re Monica Lewinsky.

Well, at some point, be it the thousandth or the millionth claim of "Any positive numbers from the MSM must be a conspiracy because they CAN'T be right because they disagree with my perpetually negative world view" from the hard-crash doomers lose credibility with me too.

But keep on trying. Maybe everyone will come around to believing leeches really can cure all that ails us, despite all that biology and medical science may tell us.

[onlooker]

Well anyone who listens too and even more so believes MSM comments loses credibility with me
At least we can make light of our differences of opinion OS.

[GHung]

Sure, Plant, our house is crumbling, rotting, and burning around us, but at least we can make the payments and move our filth somewhere we can ignore it for now. Happy Happy, Joy Joy!

Maybe someone can get a job digging your sorry ass out of the melting permafrost goo.

[hvacman]

Jeffery Brown over at POB frequently updates us on the employment status of members of the oil industry, including himself. Fully employed refilling those DQ deep-fryer oil tanks every day.

Edit - The booming oil industry that has delivered us a bounty of cheap oil.

[Outcast_Searcher]

The reason no one is excited is because wages haven't grown at all, and people are working well below their means for a fraction of what they're truly worth. Plus, the quality of the jobs we have is below our expectations, as well. Unemployment may be low, but job satisfaction is even lower. Job security is even lower than that! And working for retirement??? Forget about it!!! We'll probably all be working in retirement just to make ends meet because we're not earning enough now to save enough for later. Yeah! I'm plenty excited about the state of our economy. Woo-hoo! I'm 50 years old and have a job. Only 30 or 40 years before i can finally die and get some long-deserved rest.

Well gee. If only whining and saying incorrect things solved things, then your post would have us all in business.

If people are working for a tiny fraction of what they're worth, then just become a trillionare by hiring people for similar wages, and make the truly INCREDIBLE profits based on utilizing them up to what they're worth! (Just scale up as you experience wild success).

What? You're not wildly rich yet? You'd best get cracking! (Hint, surely you know how to get $10,000 an hour in value for the 7 (count 'em) 7 McDonald's workers who were standing around the other night talking, playing with their cell phones, twirling sacks of plastic bags, etc. instead of waiting on me, the ONLY CUSTOMER IN LINE for about ten minutes. I don't know how you'll be able to even count all the profit you'll make from such underpaid workers!)

Wages have grown since the 70's in terms of buying MANY things that let people enter the comfortable middle class. Both in terms of far more choice, and in terms of functionality. Microwave ovens and 73 types of blue jean styles are prime examples. "Myths of Rich and Poor", written by two economists documents this quite well. But don't read it if you don't want your insistence that "wages are falling" challenged.

And by all means, if objective measurements like unemployment challenge the doomer manifesto, then by all means complain about job satisfaction! Because we all know, slaves in the Roman Empire were all completely satisfied with their jobs -- so only modern America could hand workers such a raw deal.

[Plantagenet]

Jeffery Brown over at POB frequently updates us on the employment status of members of the oil industry, including himself. Fully employed refilling those DQ deep-fryer oil tanks every day.

It is a little surprising the US unemployment rate hasn't shown an uptick in response to all the jobs being lost in the oil sector, but the official government numbers just don't show any significant job losses at all.

In fact, according to the BLS the unemployment rate just dropped again and we are now at full employment in the USA.

[Timo]

The reason no one is excited is because wages haven't grown at all, and people are working well below their means for a fraction of what they're truly worth. Plus, the quality of the jobs we have is below our expectations, as well. Unemployment may be low, but job satisfaction is even lower. Job security is even lower than that! And working for retirement??? Forget about it!!! We'll probably all be working in retirement just to make ends meet because we're not earning enough now to save enough for later. Yeah! I'm plenty excited about the state of our economy. Woo-hoo! I'm 50 years old and have a job. Only 30 or 40 years before i can finally die and get some long-deserved rest.

Well gee. If only whining and saying incorrect things solved things, then your post would have us all in business.

If people are working for a tiny fraction of what they're worth, then just become a trillionare by hiring people for similar wages, and make the truly INCREDIBLE profits based on utilizing them up to what they're worth! (Just scale up as you experience wild success).

What? You're not wildly rich yet? You'd best get cracking! (Hint, surely you know how to get $10,000 an hour in value for the 7 (count 'em) 7 McDonald's workers who were standing around the other night talking, playing with their cell phones, twirling sacks of plastic bags, etc. instead of waiting on me, the ONLY CUSTOMER IN LINE for about ten minutes. I don't know how you'll be able to even count all the profit you'll make from such underpaid workers!)

Wages have grown since the 70's in terms of buying MANY things that let people enter the comfortable middle class. Both in terms of far more choice, and in terms of functionality. Microwave ovens and 73 types of blue jean styles are prime examples. "Myths of Rich and Poor", written by two economists documents this quite well. But don't read it if you don't want your insistence that "wages are falling" challenged.

And by all means, if objective measurements like unemployment challenge the doomer manifesto, then by all means complain about job satisfaction! Because we all know, slaves in the Roman Empire were all completely satisfied with their jobs -- so only modern America could hand workers such a raw deal.

You just proved my point. Thank you!

[C8]

Don't the official employment figures leave out those who have given up looking for a job? This may skew the results mightily. I have read many places that the real unemployment rate may be 8 to 11 % when a full accounting of the discouraged is taken in.

There is also the issue of many new jobs being part-time or min wage. Zero hedge shows most of the job growth due to Obamacare paying for more medical- hardly good for our manufacturing strength or future growth prospects. This seems driven by borrowing. I cannot see this as the kind of jobs that make the US stronger.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-2 ... q3-gdp-was

[Sixstrings]

But if the BLS is cooking the numbers to help the Ds, then why are the Ds all wailing about how poor the economy is?

I can see why Bernie is complaining about low wages and Wall Street and stuff like that, but why isn't Hillary spending her time saying how great the economy is and giving Obama the credit he deserves for bringing the US to full employment, rather then wailing about the evils of Wall Street right along with Bernie??.

Actually that is the situation, a bit.

While Bernie is talking about black youth unemployment and income disparity at historic highs since 1922, and more working poor with part time work and all middle class average wages down by $800 a year..

..meanwhile, Clinton campaign has planned for a while now to run on "preserving Obama administration's achievements" and "protecting the accomplishments."

Establishment Democrats are like small c conservatives now -- Clinton will call for no big change, her campaign is about keeping things how they are.

So now these job numbers that just came out, make a bit of sense.

But I'm not a conspiracy theorist.. there's just some things they do to made the number look better, but I think what they omit is stated in the fine print and you can figure out what true unemployment and underemployment number is, by old metrics.

It's like consumer price index.. if there's inflation on something, just take that item out of the index and voila inflation solved.

[Shaved Monkey]

Have food stamps gone down too now that everyone has a job?

[onlooker]

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government ... ford-food/
According to this article as of June of 2015, the number of Americans receiving food stamps is at an all-time high, as is the number of Americans no longer in the labor force. I think we may have some conflicting data sets ummmm.

[Sixstrings]

Well, here's what Trump had to say about it:

The economy is having the worst, it's so bad, hey Bill every time I go out I have packed auditoriums because people don't have jobs.

It's a phony jobs number, the real number is 25% and probably higher than that. People are looking for jobs, they can't find them, they keep looking, then they give up, and then the government says they're not statistically unemployed.

Bill, the economy is doing terribly.

Look at even the stock market. That was the one good thing, now finally that's crashing.

These are phony numbers, put up by politicians, to make them look good.

When you hear 5% and 4.9%, it's not the right number.

And, as you probably have heard, the jobs are BAD jobs.

They're really low level jobs, and they're bad jobs. I've seen fifteen different reports on that.

If you look around for a job for months and months, you can't get one, then you just go home and forget about it, then you're considered employed.

There are people out there Bill, they can't get jobs, that's why I'm filling up these stadiums.

https://youtu.be/ilUIaRC6jIE?t=69

And Bernie Sanders pretty much said the same thing:

Bernie Sanders says jobs report doesn't tell the whole story

"There's another government statistic that comes out at the same time that does not often get reported, which looks at unemployment not only for those who don't have jobs, but those who are working part-time when they want to work full-time," Sanders said Friday at an event in Manchester, N.H. "And that's a lot of people in this country. And those people in high unemployment areas who have given up looking for work."

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/02/05/Bernie-Sanders-says-jobs-report-doesnt-tell-the-whole-story/5401454698853/

[Sixstrings]

Some satire pertinent to this thread:



A thing to point out though is just that it's not just Obama -- it's the whole total free trade / not pro jobs in the US establishment.

So that's Marco Rubio too, and Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton and from what I can tell, Ted Cruz too (I've never heard him talk about the trade issue like Trump and Sanders do, from a ross perot type perspective).

The only ones that have a different view on it are Trump, and Sanders.

[ennui2]

This is anecdotal but despite the IT bubble, all of the unsolicited recruiter spam I get is for contract work. It's high pay, and some of it is long-term (a year, let's say) contract, but still contract. I feel pretty lucky to be regular salaried full-time.