US economic recovery is complete. pt 1 Archived

[OilFinder2]

Here's a tidbit for you to munch on:

Troubled, problem banks soars to 18-year high:

http://www.newser.com/article/d9limrbo2 ... -year.html .

It appears DP doesn't read his own articles:

Overall, banks' net income reached a three-year high of $87.5 billion in the October-December quarter. That contrasted with a loss of $10.6 billion in 2009.

[Daniel_Plainview]

If sales of homes (or anything else) are going up, that means more people have enough money to buy them. That is all you need to know. Thank you, and have a nice day.

Wrong. Wrong again. There are many other things "you need to know" to place your chart into proper perspective. Such as: (1) yesterday, the NAR was accused of overstating its sales statistics by 20%, so how reliable can this trend / chart be?; (2) these sales were mostly distressed (37%), fire-sale properties that the banks were desperate to unload; (3) these sales were facilitated with unprecedented life support by the Fed and Congress, including ZIRP, QE2, HAMP, and a myriad of other deficit-bloating policies; (4) these sales occurred only after massive price-slashing (the median price fell sharply in the month to a nine-year low, down 5.9 percent to $158,000); (5) these sales were due to a rising number of foreclosures and all-cash deals, and not first-time home-buyers (a record 32% of transactions in the month were in cash, a reflection of falling prices and of unattractive credit conditions, while a record 4.63% of US mortgages were in foreclosure, and 14% were/are delinquent).

Your relying on that article has backfired on you. Admit it, and move on.

[peripato]

Here's a tidbit for you to munch on:

Troubled, problem banks soars to 18-year high:

http://www.newser.com/article/d9limrbo2 ... -year.html .

It appears DP doesn't read his own articles:

Overall, banks' net income reached a three-year high of $87.5 billion in the October-December quarter. That contrasted with a loss of $10.6 billion in 2009.

Thanks to the US taxpayer America has the best recovery money can buy. Tell me Oily, what would happen to bank profits, the stock market rally and any nascent recovery if and when the Fed withdraws quantitative easing? Mmmm?

[Daniel_Plainview]

Here's a tidbit for you to munch on:

Troubled, problem banks soars to 18-year high:

http://www.newser.com/article/d9limrbo2 ... -year.html .

It appears DP doesn't read his own articles:

Overall, banks' net income reached a three-year high of $87.5 billion in the October-December quarter. That contrasted with a loss of $10.6 billion in 2009.

Thanks to the US taxpayer America has the best recovery money can buy. Tell me Oily, what would happen to bank profits, the stock market rally and any nascent recovery if and when the Fed withdraws quantitative easing? Mmmm?

Over the past 2 yrs, the Fed has spent over $9.5 trillion resuscitating banks, basically giving them unprecedented amounts of free money; the fact that they earned a mere $87.5 billion in the October-December quarter shows how sickly the system is. Not to mention that banks have been allowed to overstate their net income by avoiding mark-to-market accounting ...

[OilFinder2]

Thanks to the US taxpayer America has the best recovery money can buy. Tell me Oily, what would happen to bank profits, the stock market rally and any nascent recovery if and when the Fed withdraws quantitative easing? Mmmm?

There will probably be some shifting from one sector to another (e.g. from commodities and/or bonds to stocks or vice-versa), and various monetary flows will likely be shifted around, but on balance I don't expect much difference. Heck, I can even imagine the stock market, at least for a few days, stage a strong rally because they'd regard the Fed's action as a vote of confidence.

But those are just my WAG's, we'll find out by the end of the year or so.

[the48thronin]

Every month more evidence piles up, suggesting that online comment threads and forums are being hijacked by people who aren't what they seem.


The anonymity of the web gives companies and governments golden opportunities to run astroturf operations: fake grassroots campaigns that create the impression that large numbers of people are demanding or opposing particular policies. This deception is most likely to occur where the interests of companies or governments come into conflict with the interests of the public. For example, there's a long history of tobacco companies creating astroturf groups to fight attempts to regulate them.


After I wrote about online astroturfing in December, I was contacted by a whistleblower. He was part of a commercial team employed to infest internet forums and comment threads on behalf of corporate clients, promoting their causes and arguing with anyone who opposed them.


Like the other members of the team, he posed as a disinterested member of the public. Or, to be more accurate, as a crowd of disinterested members of the public: he used 70 personas, both to avoid detection and to create the impression there was widespread support for his pro-corporate arguments. I'll reveal more about what he told me when I've finished the investigation I'm working on.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/feb/23/need-to-protect-internet-from-astroturfing?CMP=twt_gu

[AirlinePilot]

There are NUMEROUS sources of data around the web on non pay blogs populated with very angry(and intelligent) members of this country. They include financial managers, Investors, banking employees, analysts, energy industry employees, transportation employees etc ad infinitum. The picture that THEY paint is not biased by money or politics. Its simply an attempt to put the puzzle pieces together to come to some greater or more realistic picture of what is going on both inside this country and its economy and globally.

These people are not around to win arguments. They are going online in ever greater numbers to share what the reality is. That reality is unbiased by politics or corporate greed. They do it out of a need for information and a need to understand what the immediate future may or may not hold. Their analysis is reasoned and accurate. They have rejected the media as should you. The lies and misinformation which has become our press and media has reached epic proportions. Reliance on any of it, INCLUDING Gov't reports and statistics is a fools errand.

In this particular discourse, I have to give the upper hand to DP. Its very obvious to me that his understanding of the massive Govt spending/bailout/QE picture is vastly more complete and correct than yours OF. Without that understanding any cherry picking of "good" statistics loses its context. That is all you appear to ever do here and it gets old, so we call you on it. Kind of like what DP just did.

[OilFinder2]

There are NUMEROUS sources of data around the web on non pay blogs populated with very angry(and intelligent) members of this country. They include financial managers, Investors, banking employees, analysts, energy industry employees, transportation employees etc ad infinitum. The picture that THEY paint is not biased by money or politics.

Yeah - Karl Denninger and Zerohedge. You should see the comments on Denninger's articles on Seeking Alpha. That guy gets shredded to pieces by commenters because he's so utterly dishonest and stupid. I mean, it's really no contest, the guy is a pathological liar.

The guy on Zerohedge at least has some idea what he's talking about, he just likes to pump doom.

The notion that these bloggers "are not" biased is a complete joke.

[OilFinder2]

Oh yeah - and if you trust financial bloggers over the MSM, I'd be more than happy to start posting articles from them! Heck, I know of some who'd make this thread even more fun than it is now!

[pstarr]

Every month more evidence piles up, suggesting that online comment threads and forums are being hijacked by people who aren't what they seem.


The anonymity of the web gives companies and governments golden opportunities to run astroturf operations: fake grassroots campaigns that create the impression that large numbers of people are demanding or opposing particular policies. This deception is most likely to occur where the interests of companies or governments come into conflict with the interests of the public. For example, there's a long history of tobacco companies creating astroturf groups to fight attempts to regulate them.


After I wrote about online astroturfing in December, I was contacted by a whistleblower. He was part of a commercial team employed to infest internet forums and comment threads on behalf of corporate clients, promoting their causes and arguing with anyone who opposed them.


Like the other members of the team, he posed as a disinterested member of the public. Or, to be more accurate, as a crowd of disinterested members of the public: he used 70 personas, both to avoid detection and to create the impression there was widespread support for his pro-corporate arguments. I'll reveal more about what he told me when I've finished the investigation I'm working on.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/feb/23/need-to-protect-internet-from-astroturfing?CMP=twt_gu

Little doubt that Oily and Xeno are plants. I used to assume the same for PlantedAgent, but it seems he is too stupid, unfit for the job.

[bratticus]

Investors Recover More in Latest Default Cycle, Moody’s Says
Boobjob / Feb 24, 2011

The surge in defaults by U.S. companies during the worst recession since the 1930s resulted in greater recoveries for investors than in the previous two economic slumps, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

... As the U.S. government flooded the economy with stimulus money, companies were able to improve their balance sheets by refinancing debt and “it was easier to get exit financing,” Keisman said. ...

But what about the side-effects? May cause worldwide riots, $150 oil, etc.

[rangerone314]

Oily can keep on believing the gov & pro-bank Koolaid.

I'll stick to trading in fiat currency for silver and going off the grid.

[Lore]

Put all you can into hard assets. Inflation is about to eat up the value of every currency across the planet. Expect your 401K and IRA/Roths to be traded in monopoly money.

[Plantagenet]

what would happen to bank profits, the stock market rally and any nascent recovery if and when the Fed withdraws quantitative easing? Mmmm?

I don't expect much difference....

Here's a free stock tip, Oilfinder

One rule in the stock market is "don't fight the fed."

Right now the fed is trying to pump up the market.

That will eventually end.

[AirlinePilot]

I read a lot more than those two forums you mentioned. There are MANY folks out there who are far more adept at reality than you OF.

[OilFinder2]

I read a lot more than those two forums you mentioned. There are MANY folks out there who are far more adept at reality than you OF.

You certainly aren't one of them.

[OilFinder2]

Q4 GDP was revised lower to 2.8%, but Cog still owes me $50 ... which I'm still awaiting. *hint hint*

[OilFinder2]

The consumer confidence rating is so last month. Try taking it today.

This similar survey is so this month. Out today the survey says . . .

LINK

Consumer Sentiment in the U.S. Rises to Three-Year High
By Timothy R. Homan

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers increased more than forecast in February to the highest level in three years a drop in unemployment helped overcome concern over increasing food and fuel costs.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final sentiment index for the month climbed to 77.5 from 74.2 the prior month, a report today showed. Economists projected the gauge would rise to 75.5, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

[...]

[AirlinePilot]

A GDP revision from 3.2 to 2.8 is a large miss in the initial number. Have you wondered why the majority of the revisions have been lower in the last year or two? Does it not dawn on you that the headline number is all that matters? Revising it down later means it gets lost in the flow. ITS INTENTIONAL!

This is the problem with ALL Gov't numbers lately. They are WRONG and understanding why is key to the overall picture. They are manipulating you and you dont even know it. Buying time which in the end wont matter. The markets shrug it off as a non event, which also points to the false sense of reality in our markets and their lack of correlation to the economy.

Continue thinking its all fine, you will wake up someday

[AirlinePilot]

Gallup says something else about consumer confidence.....High food prices, UE, record foreclosures, and gas prices reaching near historic highs have a tendency to make folks feel all warm and fuzzy about the economy

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146249/Ameri ... ruary.aspx