US economic recovery is complete. pt 1 Archived

[OilFinder2]

^
Here's the article I was referring to:

>>> LINK <<<

Also, in companies which are unionized, the union sometimes works with the company to provide training of various sorts. I think Boeing does that with the machinists union.

Don't know about other industries, I just happen to know about this one and so used it as an example. But I doubt it's unique.

[Armageddon]

Oily, how about that GDP ? Not too pretty, huh ?

[OilFinder2]

^
Meh, it was around the consensus. We'll see what the revisions say.

[vision-master]

Like why do you really care anyhoo oily - tell us 'what is the reason'.....

[dinopello]

Wal-Mart Shoppers are Running Out of Moolah

"We're seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure," Duke (Walmart CEO) said at an event in New York.

What the heck is a "core consumer"?

[Daniel_Plainview]

^
Meh, it was around the consensus. We'll see what the revisions say.

GDP slows sharply in first quarter; jobless claims soar by 25K

A pair of weak economic reports Thursday show the American recovery remains fragile: Economic growth slowed sharply in the first quarter, and jobless claims unexpectedly jumped by 25,000 last week.

The first report was widely expected. The Commerce Department said the nation’s output of goods and services expanded at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first three months of the year. That was down from 3.1% growth in the fourth quarter and 2.8% for all of last year.

The slowdown reflected the sapping effects of rising oil prices on consumer spending and the nation’s trade. National defense spending fell early this year, and budget-strapped state and local governments added to the weaker expenditures.

Many economists weren’t concerned too much about the slowdown, believing much of it was due to temporary factors such as higher fuel costs and harsh winter weather that further held back consumers.

Officials at the Federal Reserve as well as many private forecasters expect economic output to bounce back up to 3% or higher in the rest of the year -- although it remains to be seen whether global economic and political problems, particularly the unrest in the Middle East that is behind the spike in petroleum prices, will ease in the coming months.

Even with the slower pace of growth, the nation’s output in the first quarter, annualized, exceeded $15 trillion for the first time, as measured in current dollars. By this measure, the U.S. recovered from the recent deep recession in the spring of last year.

But the job market is another story. The U.S. economy today still has about 7 million fewer payroll jobs than it did at the end of 2007 when the recession began. And though hiring has picked up in recent months, the gains haven’t been anywhere as quick or stellar as corporate profits -- as Thursday’s report on unemployment claims showed.

The Labor Department said the number of workers filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose by 25,000 to 429,000 in the week ending last Saturday. Although these figures are volatile from week to week, analysts noted that this was the third straight week in which the filings had exceeded 400,000. And the latest number is the highest since late January.

Some seasonal and temporary factors may have played a role in the latest jump in unemployment claims. That includes the Easter holiday and the disaster in Japan, which disrupted delivery of parts in the auto and electronics industry. Though analysts said it was too early to say the labor market was losing momentum, the report was nonetheless a discouraging sign in an economy that is struggling with nearly 9% unemployment.

--Don Lee

LA Times

[Keith_McClary]

What the heck is a "core consumer"?

http://lazybfarm.files.wordpress.com/20 ... g_1344.jpg

[OilFinder2]

Like why do you really care anyhoo oily - tell us 'what is the reason'.....

There is no single reason.

No doubt y'all want me to say, "Rising oil prices." But oil prices also rose in the 4th quarter from the 3rd quarter and yet GDP accellerated in Q4.

[OilFinder2]

Y'know, now that I look at some of the details of the GDP report, it's not really all that bad. Nothing to write home about either, but not a train wreck by any means.

BEA

-- Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.8 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the fourth.

So, growth in personal consumption actually increased from the prior quarter.

However ...

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 6.7 percent in the fourth.

How to explain the discrepency? Here's the rub:

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 7.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 11.7 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.2 percent. Nondefense increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 3.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.6 percent.

So, the tepid growth in real final sales of domestic product can be explained by a significant decrease in government spending. Take that away and it would have been a much better headline number.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Karl Denninger notes correctly that the reason for the massive deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily is due to "[1] the government's running out of the ability to deficit spend, [2] non-residential fixed investment (that is, actual investment) is slowing, and [3] consumption on a discretionary basis is going through the floor due to increases in the cost of food and energy." Looks like Ben's QE2 is indeed backfiring (higher commodity prices). And now the govt is increasingly unable to spend with deficit dollars. OOPS!

[OilFinder2]

Bloomberg

Best Job Market for U.S. Grads Since 2008 Leading to Multiple Offers
By Oliver Staley, Douglas MacMillan and Cecile Vannucci - Apr 27, 2011 9:01 PM PT

Hamza Afzal had such a hard time finding an electrical-engineering internship in the recession that he delayed his graduation, took pre-med classes and applied to law school. This year, he got two job offers in his field.

“I definitely saw a shift in the job market,” said Afzal, a 24-year-old senior at San Jose State University, who will start May 30 at chipmaker Linear Technology Corp. (LLTC) in nearby Milpitas, California. “There was a lot of pressure off my shoulders.”

The class of 2011 is enjoying the best job market for new graduates since the 2008 financial crisis, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers. The turnaround is being driven by gains in finance, energy and technology, said Edwin Koc, who heads research at the association. Companies are filling a backlog of jobs after two years of stagnant hiring and looking to younger workers to fill vacancies, he said. This year, 1.61 million students are expected to graduate, he said.

[...]

[pstarr]

Bloomberg

Best Job Market for U.S. Grads Since 2008 Leading to Multiple Offers
By Oliver Staley, Douglas MacMillan and Cecile Vannucci - Apr 27, 2011 9:01 PM PT

Hamza Afzal had such a hard time finding an electrical-engineering internship in the recession that he delayed his graduation, took pre-med classes and applied to law school. This year, he got two job offers in his field.

“I definitely saw a shift in the job market,” said Afzal, a 24-year-old senior at San Jose State University, who will start May 30 at chipmaker Linear Technology Corp. (LLTC) in nearby Milpitas, California. “There was a lot of pressure off my shoulders.”

The class of 2011 is enjoying the best job market for new graduates since the 2008 financial crisis, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers. The turnaround is being driven by gains in finance, energy and technology, said Edwin Koc, who heads research at the association. Companies are filling a backlog of jobs after two years of stagnant hiring and looking to younger workers to fill vacancies, he said. This year, 1.61 million students are expected to graduate, he said.

[...]

One has to wonder how young Hamza Afzal affords three post-grad specialties. Oil Royalty perhaps?

[Sixstrings]

What the heck is a "core consumer"?

Hint: the Walmart core consumer can't afford to shop at Whole Foods.

[vision-master]

Bloomberg

Best Job Market for U.S. Grads Since 2008 Leading to Multiple Offers
By Oliver Staley, Douglas MacMillan and Cecile Vannucci - Apr 27, 2011 9:01 PM PT

Hamza Afzal had such a hard time finding an electrical-engineering internship in the recession that he delayed his graduation, took pre-med classes and applied to law school. This year, he got two job offers in his field.

“I definitely saw a shift in the job market,” said Afzal, a 24-year-old senior at San Jose State University, who will start May 30 at chipmaker Linear Technology Corp. (LLTC) in nearby Milpitas, California. “There was a lot of pressure off my shoulders.”

The class of 2011 is enjoying the best job market for new graduates since the 2008 financial crisis, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers. The turnaround is being driven by gains in finance, energy and technology, said Edwin Koc, who heads research at the association. Companies are filling a backlog of jobs after two years of stagnant hiring and looking to younger workers to fill vacancies, he said. This year, 1.61 million students are expected to graduate, he said.

[...]

Two of the neighborhood gals just finished college this past winter, one works in retail sales and the other is a waitress. They say, there are no good jobs to be had.

[dolanbaker]

Wal-Mart Shoppers are Running Out of Moolah

"We're seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure," Duke (Walmart CEO) said at an event in New York.

What the heck is a "core consumer"?

People who just buy the day to day basic necessities of life.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Gallup: Most Americans say U.S. in recession despite data
More than half of Americans say the U.S. economy is in a recession or a depression despite official data that show a moderate recovery, according to a poll released on Thursday.

(Reuters) - The April 20-23 Gallup survey of 1,013 U.S. adults found that only 27 percent said the economy is growing. Twenty-nine percent said the economy is in a depression and 26 percent said it is in a recession, with another 16 percent saying it is "slowing down," Gallup said.

Reuters

[Plantagenet]

Average folks who think we're in a recession may be right.

The decline in GDP growth to only 1.8% just announced for Jan-March 2011 shows again that Obama's policies aren't working and may signal the start of the next dip in a double-dip recession.

[eXpat]

One Million Exhausted Jobless Benefits in Past Year

Roughly 1 million people in the U.S. were unable to find work after exhausting their unemployment benefits over the past year, Labor Department data released Thursday suggest.

Economists said the back-of-the-envelope calculation is yet another sign that the labor market remains weak.

About 8.2 million idled workers were receiving unemployment benefits as of the week ended April 9, the Labor Department said in its weekly jobless claims report. This compares with about 10.5 million individuals at the same time last year, resulting in a decline of roughly 2.3 million people.

The federal government estimates that the economy created 1.3 million jobs during the 12 months ended in March.

“That leaves, roughly speaking, about 1 million people who have exhausted their unemployment benefits and have very likely not yet found a job,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. in New York.

But Nicholas Tenev of Barclays Capital said a precise figure is hard to calculate. He estimated the labor force has shrunk by 638,000 since March of last year, largely because of a demographic shift as baby boomers retire.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/04/28/one-million-exhausted-jobless-benefits-in-past-year/?mod=wsj_share_twitter

[eXpat]

McDonalds Hires 62,000, Turns Away Over 938,000 Applicants For Minimum Wage, Part-Time Jobs

This is what the US economy has been reduced to: McDonalds reports that as part of its employment event to hire 50,000 minimum wage, part-time (mostly) workers, subsequently raised to 62,000 it received a whopping 1 million applications, or a Tim Geithner jealousy inducing 6.2% hit rate (h/t X. Kurt. OSis). Alas, the US economy is now so pathetic that the bulk of the population will settle for anything. Literally anything. And the saddest part: over 938,000 applicants were turned away. Here's hoping to Burger King needs a few million janitors in the immediate future too. And yes, aside from reality, things in America are really recovering quite nicely.

From Bloomberg:

McDonald’s and its franchisees hired 62,000 people in the U.S. after receiving more than one million applications, the Oak Brook, Illinois-based company said today in an e-mailed statement. Previously, it said it planned to hire 50,000.

The April 19 national hiring day was the company’s first, said Danya Proud, a McDonald’s spokeswoman. She declined to disclose how many of the jobs were full- versus part-time. McDonald’s employed 400,000 workers worldwide at company-owned stores at the end of 2010, according to a company filing.

Earlier this month, McDonald’s said sales at stores open at least 13 months climbed 2.9 percent in the U.S. after it attracted more diners with items such as beverages and the Chipotle BBQ Bacon Angus burger. The fast-food chain has about 14,000 stores in the U.S. and more than 18,000 abroad. About 80 percent of all McDonald’s stores are franchised.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mcdonalds-hires-62000-turns-away-over-938000-applicants-minimum-wage-part-time-jobs

[Blacksmith]

US Dollar Index 73.342 soon our goods will be competitive, that is if foreigners don't call their loans.