US economic recovery is complete. pt 1 Archived

[eXpat]

Also we need a couple aircraft carrier battle groups in the Yellow Sea. Remind our Asian friends of certain geopolitical realities.

You are not serious right? besides an interesting stock of ASBMs, China would dump the US treasuries as fast that you woudn´t even have to time to blink. Gunboat diplomacy is so XX century .

[Armageddon]

Here is Oily's housing recovery

[pstarr]

so who pays him to post this crap?

[OilFinder2]

Are you joking ? We are at historic lows. Every month is setting a record.

We are only near historic lows for new housing, and yes, I would characterize it as "bouncing along the bottom." Notice from the chart that new home sales have been roughly the same for about a year.


source

Existing home sales, while not anywhere near their mid-00's bubble level, are doing "OK." They are nowhere near historic lows. And existing home sales have always been a much larger portion of the housing market than new home sales.


source

Of course the main reason why new home sales are suffering is because people are scooping up cheap houses on the existing home market. Don't blame them. So when you take both new *and* existing home sales into account, the housing market is dragging along, but it's definitely been worse.

[vision-master]

Worse? When? The 1930's?

I wuzn't this bad in the 70's/ Early 80's......

[Armageddon]

Existing homes don't do shit for the economy. New homes are where the jobs are.

[pstarr]

Existing homes don't do shit for the economy. New homes are where the jobs are.

That's not true. Existing homes sales contribute very important jobs in the real estate and financial services sector, the future of America.

[Armageddon]

Existing homes don't do shit for the economy. New homes are where the jobs are.

That's not true. Existing homes sales contribute very important jobs in the real estate and financial services sector, the future of America.

Total BS. Tens of millions of jobs are directly and indirectly related to new home construction. These blue collar type of jobs are the backbone of the US, not like these pencil pushing dbags.

[pstarr]

Existing homes don't do shit for the economy. New homes are where the jobs are.

That's not true. Existing homes sales contribute very important jobs in the real estate and financial services sector, the future of America.

Total BS. Tens of millions of jobs are directly and indirectly related to new home construction. These blue collar type of jobs are the backbone of the US, not like these pencil pushing dbags.

kidding. yuck yuck yuck

[OilFinder2]

These blue collar type of jobs are the backbone of the US, not like these pencil pushing dbags.

Then here's your recovery, Mr. Recovery-Denier!

LINK

Tales from inside the manufacturing boom
By Vishesh Kumar, contributorApril 15, 2011: 12:14 PM ET

FORTUNE -- Like independent manufacturers across the country, Saegertown, PA-based Acutec Precision Machining saw its business ravaged by the Great Recession.

Big customers like GE first scrambled to freeze orders and then tried to return inventory as dire outlooks for the US economy swirled, CEO Rob Smith recalls. The company, which makes machine parts mainly for the aerospace and power generation industries, embarked on brutal cuts, paring its payrolls from 250 to 205 workers by the winter of 2009 amid plummeting sales.

But today, less than two years later, the situation could hardly be more different.

Sales are booming and the company is struggling to keep up with new customer orders, Smith says. The company is now up to 275 employees and pounding the pavement for 20 additional machinists.

"Customers are frustrated and ask us if we can work overtime, but we have to tell them we are already working overtime," Smith says. "We went from famine to feast."

[...]

[Armageddon]

Existing homes don't do shit for the economy. New homes are where the jobs are.

That's not true. Existing homes sales contribute very important jobs in the real estate and financial services sector, the future of America.

Total BS. Tens of millions of jobs are directly and indirectly related to new home construction. These blue collar type of jobs are the backbone of the US, not like these pencil pushing dbags.

kidding. yuck yuck yuck

[Lore]

These blue collar type of jobs are the backbone of the US, not like these pencil pushing dbags.

Then here's your recovery, Mr. Recovery-Denier!

LINK

Tales from inside the manufacturing boom
By Vishesh Kumar, contributorApril 15, 2011: 12:14 PM ET

FORTUNE -- Like independent manufacturers across the country, Saegertown, PA-based Acutec Precision Machining saw its business ravaged by the Great Recession.

Big customers like GE first scrambled to freeze orders and then tried to return inventory as dire outlooks for the US economy swirled, CEO Rob Smith recalls. The company, which makes machine parts mainly for the aerospace and power generation industries, embarked on brutal cuts, paring its payrolls from 250 to 205 workers by the winter of 2009 amid plummeting sales.

But today, less than two years later, the situation could hardly be more different.

Sales are booming and the company is struggling to keep up with new customer orders, Smith says. The company is now up to 275 employees and pounding the pavement for 20 additional machinists.

"Customers are frustrated and ask us if we can work overtime, but we have to tell them we are already working overtime," Smith says. "We went from famine to feast."

[...]

This story is misleading. What they're talking about is a lack of highly skilled technical workers for a specific field. How many out of work 55 year old textile workers in NC would qualify with experience to work on a CNC Mazak machine, or robotics repair?

[Armageddon]

Oil doesn't care about debt. He thinks you can charge 50,000 on your credit card and call yourself wealthy. He is going to learn the hard way real soon. I doubt he has any preps. When TSHTF, he will be one of the first to go.


RIP Oily


We tried to warn you, but you were too stupid / hard-headed to listen.

[OilFinder2]

This story is misleading. What they're talking about is a lack of highly skilled technical workers for a specific field. How many out of work 55 year old textile workers in NC would qualify with experience to work on a CNC Mazak machine, or robotics repair?

Yes, the article talked about shortage of skilled manufacturing workers, but the fact that there are shortages of skilled manufacturing workers at all tells you there is lots of demand for at least one category of Armegeddon's blue-collar workers. Would you prefer these workers not be in demand? If they weren't in demand, then you could speak to me about doom and gloom.

Furthermore, that wasn't the only thing the article talked about. The shortage of skilled workers was just the worst problem mentioned. It's basically a "crisis of riches." They've got so much business they can't find the workers to meet their demand.

As the broader economy limps along -- economists at Bank of America and Goldman Sachs recently forecast quarterly growth at just 1.5% and 2.5% respectively -- recent manufacturing activity is instead in line with an economy expanding at 6.5%, analysts at Ned Davis Research wrote in a recent note to clients.

And that strength is translating into job growth. The Bureau of Labor statistics said that the manufacturing sector has added 243,000 private sector jobs since December 2009. While it accounts for 12% of total economic output, manufacturing has driven 18% of private job gains, according to TD Economics.

And laid-off textile workers aren't the only potential pool of labor for future CNC machinists. Most of Armageddon's many out-of-work construction workers would probably be easily able to train for work as a machinist. Something like that would be right up their alley.

[OilFinder2]

Change of topic. Avoidance of being told that beloved blue-collar sector is the very sector of the economy doing the best. Reality sure bites when it doesn't fit your preconceived notion of gloom and doom.

Oil doesn't care about debt. He thinks you can charge 50,000 on your credit card and call yourself wealthy. He is going to learn the hard way real soon. I doubt he has any preps. When TSHTF, he will be one of the first to go.


RIP Oily


We tried to warn you, but you were too stupid / hard-headed to listen.

[vision-master]

[Lore]

This story is misleading. What they're talking about is a lack of highly skilled technical workers for a specific field. How many out of work 55 year old textile workers in NC would qualify with experience to work on a CNC Mazak machine, or robotics repair?

Yes, the article talked about shortage of skilled manufacturing workers, but the fact that there are shortages of skilled manufacturing workers at all tells you there is lots of demand for at least one category of Armegeddon's blue-collar workers. Would you prefer these workers not be in demand? If they weren't in demand, then you could speak to me about doom and gloom.

Furthermore, that wasn't the only thing the article talked about. The shortage of skilled workers was just the worst problem mentioned. It's basically a "crisis of riches." They've got so much business they can't find the workers to meet their demand.

As the broader economy limps along -- economists at Bank of America and Goldman Sachs recently forecast quarterly growth at just 1.5% and 2.5% respectively -- recent manufacturing activity is instead in line with an economy expanding at 6.5%, analysts at Ned Davis Research wrote in a recent note to clients.

And that strength is translating into job growth. The Bureau of Labor statistics said that the manufacturing sector has added 243,000 private sector jobs since December 2009. While it accounts for 12% of total economic output, manufacturing has driven 18% of private job gains, according to TD Economics.

And laid-off textile workers aren't the only potential pool of labor for future CNC machinists. Most of Armageddon's many out-of-work construction workers would probably be easily able to train for work as a machinist. Something like that would be right up their alley.

Demand? They were looking for an additional 25 skilled technical workers; big whoop. The problem, as I've often stated, is partially a result of automation that improves productivity and continues to eliminate many of the jobs the average worker once held.

As for construction workers, I use to work in that field. You've got a tuff road training high school graduates and dropouts to be able to work as a skilled CNC machinist. I've also sold CNC equipment during most of my adult life and have also recommended getting the most skilled and educated in that field to work with them.

[OilFinder2]

Demand? They were looking for an additional 25 skilled technical workers; big whoop.

That was just one company.

Here ya go - I just went to craiglist and in a jiffy I found ...

68 ads for CNC machinists/operators and related positions in the Cincinnati area:
http://cincinnati.craigslist.org/search ... catAbb=jjj

178 of the same in the Pittsburgh area:
http://pittsburgh.craigslist.org/search ... catAbb=jjj

104 around St Louis:
http://stlouis.craigslist.org/search/?a ... catAbb=jjj

114 around Buffalo:
http://buffalo.craigslist.org/search/?a ... catAbb=jjj

And so on, and so forth.

The problem, as I've often stated, is partially a result of automation that improves productivity and continues to eliminate many of the jobs the average worker once held.

I do not disagree with that. There's no doubt productivity and automation have taken away many blue-collar jobs which will never return. But that doesn't mean blue-collar jobs will *always* be in decline, you will get periods (such as now) when they go back up, and the automation just means people will have to change their skills. Nothing new about that.

As for construction workers, I use to work in that field. You've got a tuff road training high school graduates and dropouts to be able to work as a skilled CNC machinist. I've also sold CNC equipment during most of my adult life and have also recommended getting the most skilled and educated in that field to work with them.

Not all construction workers are high school dropouts and dimwits. Maybe some of the Mexican house-framers who speak little English and have little formal education would have a hard time transitioning, but a lot of the others are likely trainable if the will is there.

[Lore]

You're simply not going to be able to retrain your average middle age high school graduate, at best, as workers in these highly technically skilled fields in any great quantities. What you're quoting are still pretty pathetic numbers of jobs in a very specific and narrow area and I can guarantee that you will find an educated Asian that's able to do the same job overseas for 1/3 the price or less. Such skills require the same education a computer programmer would require. There will be a whole class of the formally middle class laborer that will be left behind in this transition.

[eXpat]

Pimco's Observations As The US "Reaches The Keynesian Endpoint" - The QE2 Ponzi Scheme Is "Nothing But A Profit Illusion"

Once again, it is the world's biggest bond manager which either is really tempting fate by telling the truth in an increasingly more aggressive manner day after day, or is engaging in the most acute case of reverse psychology ever seen, coming out with the most critical opinion of the Fed's actions on the verge of the Fed's historic first press conference. And this one is truly a stunner, far more real than anything even Bill Gross has said in the past: "Just as Charles Ponzi needed donuts to turn back a suspicious crowd of investors, the Fed needs “donuts” in order to fill the bellies of the literally millions of investors worldwide who worry about the alarmingly large U.S. budget deficit and the impact that the U.S. debt dilemma could have on their Treasury holdings...Their collective buying has created what we believe to be a profit illusion with many investors mistakenly believing they can continuously reap profits from perpetually falling bond yields and rising bond prices, just as they have had opportunity to do over the past 30 years, amid the great secular bull market for Treasuries and the bond market more generally...For many reasons, this “duration tailwind” for Treasuries can’t last, particularly because the United States has reached the Keynesian Endpoint, where the last balance sheet has been tapped."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pimcos-observations-us-reaches-keynesian-endpoint-qe2-ponzi-scheme-nothing-profit-illusion