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US economic recovery is complete. pt 1 Archived

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 11:10:58

Bad news day for the doomers. Still awaiting that imminent double dip. :razz:

LINK
Service Sector Expands at Fastest Pace in 5 Years
Service sector expands in January at fastest pace since 2005 on higher orders, employment

By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON February 3, 2011 (AP)

The U.S. service sector, which employs nearly 90 percent of the work force, grew in January at the fastest pace in five years, a sign that hiring could pick up soon.

The Institute for Supply Management, a private trade group, said Thursday its index of service sector activity rose to 59.4 last month, up from December's reading of 57.1. That's the 14th straight month of growth. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The report follows a strong reading on Monday from the institute's manufacturing index for January, which rose to its highest level in nearly seven years.

The service index measures a broad sector of the economy, including retailers, hotels, health care companies and financial firms.

The institute's services employment index rose to 54.5, the highest since May 2006. The employment indexes in the manufacturing and service sector indexes both rose in January, a positive sign that the economy may soon generate more jobs.

[...]


And the factory orders report came out today also. The durable goods orders component from last week was revised upward. :shock:

LINK
Orders to U.S. Factories Unexpectedly Increased in December
By Bob Willis - Feb 3, 2011 7:00 AM PT

American factories unexpectedly received more orders in December, led by demand for capital equipment that was stronger than reported last week.

The 0.2 percent increase in bookings topped the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News which called for a 0.5 percent drop, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.9 percent, up from the 1.4 percent gain the government estimated in last week’s durable goods report.

Manufacturers like Caterpillar Inc. are reporting increased demand from U.S. consumers, businesses and customers in developing countries like Brazil and China. Tax breaks for business investment passed last month may provide further momentum to the factory rebound this year.

“We’re seeing a pretty solid rebound in demand for manufactured goods,” Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial in Detroit, said before the report. “That is exactly what we need to see at this point to make this a self- sustaining recovery.”

[...]
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 11:52:42

Corn up 103%
Cotton up 173%
Oats up 121%
Wheat up 105%
Soy up 62%
Copper up 68%
Rice up 74%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby MichaelWallace » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 13:16:46

Armageddon wrote:Corn up 103%
Cotton up 173%
Oats up 121%
Wheat up 105%
Soy up 62%
Copper up 68%
Rice up 74%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.


Since when? Yesterday? YTD? The end of the recession? The surrender of Japan? And is that real or nominal? These numbers are meaningless without more information.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 14:15:18

Release date: 03/02/2011 wrote:The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) rose for the seventh consecutive month, averaging 231 points in January 2011, up 3.4 percent from December 2010 and the highest (in both real and nominal terms) since the index has been backtracked in 1990.
One month rise was 3.4%, which would translate to almost 40% yearly rise. I imagine this index measures a "basket" of prices collected from different regions, and so averages food production costs in inexpensive growing regions (plenty of water, healthy soils) with areas dependent on pumped irrigation and FF fertilizers. Like the MIDDLE EAST. This can't have anything to do with instability in certain desert nations? Or historically high of crude prices?

Nah. I must be just another hysterical doomer :razz:

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FAO Food Price Index
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 14:21:57

Armageddon wrote:Copper up 68%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.

Are we eating metal and wood? Or maybe, just maybe, we're in a recovery?
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 14:24:07

Armageddon wrote:Corn up 103%
Cotton up 173%
Oats up 121%
Wheat up 105%
Soy up 62%
Copper up 68%
Rice up 74%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.

and:
US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

There is also considerable growth of lalaland trolls.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 14:56:28

MichaelWallace wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Corn up 103%
Cotton up 173%
Oats up 121%
Wheat up 105%
Soy up 62%
Copper up 68%
Rice up 74%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.


Since when? Yesterday? YTD? The end of the recession? The surrender of Japan? And is that real or nominal? These numbers are meaningless without more information.


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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 16:29:01

I think folks pointing out that there are good AND bad economic datapoints is valid and completely healthy. And MichaelWallace is right to ask for the inflation figures in context (though I'm not sure why the sarcasm is needed, since to anyone who watches the markets, rampant commodity inflation IS blatantly obvious in the past year or so. Any fair minded market watcher (except the Fed, apparently) would admit to this data trend).

In fact, this is getting so strong this year (I just saw a rather broad list of commodities up around 15% to 25% YTD yesterday -- on Kudlow on CNBC, I think) - that now I am getting concerned about the possibility of meaningful inflation in the U.S. and Europe -- even with high unemployment / weak general economy. (I would have said that was EXTREMELY unlikely until now. Now, unless this trend settles down or reverses within the next quarter or so, general product increases seem more and more likely).

After all, you can't expect companies to sustain meaningful losses selling their products for long, if the input costs increase enough and they can't pass them along.

Why does a discussion of important things like this to folks trying to financially improve their families' situation have to be laced with accusations of people being trolls, with sarcasm, etc? People can look at complex situation and have valid/reasonable points of disagreement.

Jeez - this intolerant attitude is why the morons on Capitol Hill (both parties) can't quit fighting long enough to address serious problems the U.S. faces.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 19:23:04

Looking at that graph, GDP bottomed out around 12800 billion, and rose up to around 13400 billion. That puts the GDP growth at around $600 billion. But the Fed/Treasury/etc. has injected many times that amount into the financial system/general economy. $600 billion does not even cover TARP, let alone the total value of the economic rescue packages, which Bloomberg tallied up to $12.8 trillion. Now not all of that money actually was spent, some of it was in the form of guarantees. Still, I have a hard time following this logic:

"We spent $13 trillion to prop up the economy. This caused a $.6 trillion blip up. Recession over, crisis solved." If you spent $13 trillion in bailouts and guarantees, and only got back $.6 trillion in the form of GDP output, that sounds like a rather pathetic "success" story to me.

According to a team at Bloomberg News, at one point last year the U.S. had lent, spent or guaranteed as much as $12.8 trillion to rescue the economy. The Bloomberg reporters have been following that money.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 20:14:59

OilFinder2 wrote:^
What does that have to do with anything? Thanks to the Obama SS withholding tax cut, I've been getting an extra $40 or so in take home pay this year. And thanks to my purchase of a new house last year I'll be getting a huge deduction on my taxes that I've never had before. So THERE! :razz: And I'm as middle class as anyone.

These blanket statements about "the middle class is blah blah blah" are pretty meaningless. You're characterizing a huge and economically diverse segment of the population who are in an unimaginably huge variety of situations. Some are doing fine, others not, some in-between. You make it sound like they're being all thrown out on the street because they're out of a job and can't find a new one, and all their houses are being foreclosed and yadda yadda yadda. Accentuate the negative and pretend the whole segment of the population is like that. Yeah, sure. :roll:


You're right about the blanket statements, and it is wrong -for now... (Egypt comes to mind) Since PO.com seems to be your full time job you can quote me on this and post a picture of a football/soccer ball pounding my face if I'm wrong but I will go out on a limb and post a prediction that you will loose the money you get back form your new home compared to the loss of value you incur over the next three years in the home's value -note*** I have no idea of your location other than Cornicopia. This is why I believe the recovery ISN'T COMPLETE. Low interest rates and high unemployment. Stop about RECOVERY BEING COMPLETE until monetization ends!!! Otherwise your full BS and I respect a lot OF2 but get off the propaganda train with your minions and use your brain, not your bosses voice.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 20:56:52

but I will go out on a limb and post a prediction that you will loose the money you get back form your new home compared to the loss of value you incur over the next three years in the home's value

Even if that were true (not likely given where I live - north Seattle suburbs, real estate market is definitely picking up here - but let's just say it happens), I wouldn't even care. I have no intention of selling this house for at least 5-10 years, maybe not until I retire or even die. Since I don't intend to sell it any time soon, I could care less what its value becomes in the meantime. It might even lower my property taxes, which would shave a bit off my mortgage payment, which would be nice.

And if you want my opinion on housing prices nationwide, I hope they go sideways for at least 10 years. They got way overpriced during the boom so it's about time they spent a while doing nothing.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 00:14:24

OilFinder2 wrote:
but I will go out on a limb and post a prediction that you will lose the money you get back form your new home compared to the loss of value you incur over the next three years in the home's value

Even if that were true (not likely given where I live - north Seattle suburbs, real estate market is definitely picking up here - but let's just say it happens), I wouldn't even care. I have no intention of selling this house for at least 5-10 years, maybe not until I retire or even die. Since I don't intend to sell it any time soon, I could care less what its value becomes in the meantime. It might even lower my property taxes, which would shave a bit off my mortgage payment, which would be nice.

And if you want my opinion on housing prices nationwide, I hope they go sideways for at least 10 years. They got way overpriced during the boom so it's about time they spent a while doing nothing.

So even for someone like you who lives where you live, do you prep for unexpected earthquakes? Can you make it five days or even weeks before help arrives? Doom isn’t the same for everyone. I’m in Denver so I don’t know what to expect but lots of changing weather rapidly, hot to cold in no time. I’ll never want to move because it’s my home so I’ll be here as long as I can but I know I can make it if some random disaster strikes.
That would be my only concern about the north east. Be ready for cold! Those who already live there already know this stuff though.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 01:20:54

We had a good-sized earthquake in February 2001. While things were shaken around some, the stores remained opened and you could go to the supermarket within hours (and even minutes) after the quake struck. Same thing happens all the time in California. And Japan. Etc. So no, I do not prepare for earthquakes, because I don't need to. Plus, my house is only a year old and designed with modern earthquake standards in mind, so I don't need to worry about it toppling over or anything like that.

Seattle is in the Northwest, not the Northeast. The climate here is actually pretty mild - so much so that it's pretty boring actually.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 07:45:47

OilFinder2 wrote:We had a good-sized earthquake in February 2001. While things were shaken around some, the stores remained opened and you could go to the supermarket within hours (and even minutes) after the quake struck. Same thing happens all the time in California. And Japan. Etc. So no, I do not prepare for earthquakes, because I don't need to. Plus, my house is only a year old and designed with modern earthquake standards in mind, so I don't need to worry about it toppling over or anything like that.

Seattle is in the Northwest, not the Northeast. The climate here is actually pretty mild - so much so that it's pretty boring actually.



My bad, I meant the Northwest. The area/city is gorgeous and I've traveled there for work many times but being doomerish I always have a little guy on my shoulder telling me "something could happen" (I don't take medicine because I don't want the little guy to go away) but I'd love to live in Bend, Oregon. I visit family there and it's a lot like where I live but more green. Anyway, sorry for straying from the topic of your thread....

Todays Employment report should shed light on recovery/expansion. Bad numbers due to weather, good numbers due to recovery, rainbows, and unicorns.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 09:40:13

Truly bizarre employment report out today. Only 36K new jobs added but the unemployment rate dropped from 9.4% to 9%! They did some population adjustments and the labor force dropped by a half million, so maybe that accounts for some of the weirdness.

And for the many who've accused the birth-death model of padding job stats, this month it subtracted 339K (!!!) from the not-seasonally-adjusted establishment jobs number.

Both November and December were revised upward. In summary, this is definitely a case of "let's wait for the revisions."
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby Lore » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 09:48:44

It would have to be a substantial adjustment to make up the additional 114,000 needed to just stay even with those entering the employment arena each month.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 09:59:45

They shrink the workforce because the sheep only see the 9% and say, " wow, unemployment is dropping". It's a rigged game for the stupid.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 12:05:18

OilFinder2 wrote:Truly bizarre employment report out today. Only 36K new jobs added but the unemployment rate dropped from 9.4% to 9%! They did some population adjustments and the labor force dropped by a half million, so maybe that accounts for some of the weirdness.

And for the many who've accused the birth-death model of padding job stats, this month it subtracted 339K (!!!) from the not-seasonally-adjusted establishment jobs number.

Both November and December were revised upward. In summary, this is definitely a case of "let's wait for the revisions."
This is definitely a case of "lets use fuzzy numbers because the real numbers are awful." Check out the Employment Report thread:

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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 20:55:23

OilFinder2 wrote:Truly bizarre employment report out today. Only 36K new jobs added but the unemployment rate dropped from 9.4% to 9%! They did some population adjustments and the labor force dropped by a half million, so maybe that accounts for some of the weirdness ...

I doubt many of the doomers here are sophisticated enough to understand - or care about - the intricacies of demographics and sampling issues, but in case there's one or two who are, here's a couple interesting links.

Calculated Risk
The CPS also showed a decline in the Civilian Labor Force Level by 504,000. Some of this decline was due to a lower participation rate, and some of this decline was due a lower estimate of the Civilian noninstitutional population. In reality the working age population probably increased in January, but the updated population estimate showed a decrease of 185,000 people in the month.

The BLS provides some estimates with and without the change in population control (see Table C. at bottom of the release). Without the change in population control, the CPS would have shown an increase of 589,000 employed people. Also, without the change in population control, the number of unemployed would have fallen 590,000 (U-3). With the update population estimate, the number of unemployed declined 622,000.

So without the change in the population control - the change can be confusing - the CPS showed a surge in employment and a sharp decline in the unemployed, and that is the reason the unemployment rate declined sharply.

And similarly, from the Wall Street Journal
The Labor Department’s bean counters recalculate the size of the population every January. Those new counts, in turn, are used to come up with new estimates for how many Americans are employed, unemployed or not in the labor force. Because of the revisions, Labor Department officials are flashing warning signs to anybody trying to infer too much in the unemployment portion of the monthly jobs numbers.

The Labor Department — using updated Census Bureau data — determined that its 2010 estimates of the size of the population had been 347,000 too high, its estimates of overall employment in 2010 had been 472,000 too high and that its estimates of people who were unemployed or not in the labor force were also off.

If you read all of both articles, the gist is . . . the Census Bureau determined the population - particularly the Hispanic population - didn't grow as fast last year as they had been assuming, so they had to adjust down both the overall population and the size of the workforce. Since the Hispanic population has a higher unemployment rate than average, when they extrapolated their household survey results to the new population figures they got a lower unemployment rate. They did not do this to the December figures, only the January ones. Basically the two months aren't even very comparable to each other since they each have entirely different population assumptions.

They do this every January so I guess we'll have to put up with some flaky results the first month each year.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby nobodypanic » Fri 04 Feb 2011, 22:38:08

OilFinder2 wrote:I doubt many of the doomers here are sophisticated enough to understand - or care about - the intricacies of demographics and sampling issues, but in case there's one or two who are, here's a couple interesting links. Calculated Risk
The CPS also showed a decline in the Civilian Labor Force Level by 504,000. ... They did not do this to the December figures, only the January ones. Basically the two months aren't even very comparable to each other since they each have entirely different population assumptions.
They do this every January so I guess we'll have to put up with some flaky results the first month each year.

oily, you are one thorough dude. :-D
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