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US economic recovery is complete. pt 1 Archived

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby Roy » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 10:22:44

Sure if you take away the M3, become a pathological liar with an obsession on inflation not happening, perpetuate a chronic inflationary monetary policy (QE) and don't adjust the currency for any inflation the GDP is higher than it was before.


XZACTLY!

Chris Martenson does a nice primer on GDP/CPI ( http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-16-fuzzy-numbers ) and how they are manipulated. And how they're not inflation adjusted. Denninger does a good job in pointing out how gov deficit spending has artificially propped up the bogus GDP and CPI numbers OF2 and his comrades in the MSM like to tout.

The US gov will say or print anything to perpetuate the status quo for as long as possible. In my opinion they have no credibility and their statistics are manipulated to make their wrongheaded and myopic policies look good. It's all PR now, as no amount of obfuscating or lying can hide the fundamental truth that:

YOU CANNOT BORROW YOURSELF TO PROSPERITY! YOU CANNOT SPEND YOURSELF RICH!

Egypt may just be a little 'peak' into the future for us Americans. :twisted:
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 11:16:00

OilFinder2 wrote:Business was most likely unprepared for this surge in demand, since lots of goods were sold from stock. Inventory liquidation last quarter subtracted a massive 3.7 percentage points from the fourth quarter’s rate of growth.

[...]

Predictiably, the drawdown in inventories we saw at the end of last year is now resulting in a surge of new factory orders. Out today, the ISM manufacturing index reached a 7-year high:

LINK
Feb. 1, 2011, 10:35 a.m. EST
ISM factory index jumps to 60.8% in January
Highest reading for U.S. manufacturing gauge since May 2004

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Activity at the nation’s manufacturers in January accelerated to the fastest pace seen since May 2004, according to a closely followed survey of top executives released Tuesday.

The Institute for Supply Management index rose to 60.8% in January from 58.5% in December.

It marked the 18th straight month of expansion in factory activity, as the manufacturing sector continues to outperform other sectors of the U.S. economy.

[...]

Fourteen of 18 industries as tracked by Tempe, Ariz.-based ISM were growing in January, led by petroleum, primary metals and apparel. Read the full survey.

January’s new-orders index also jumped, reaching 67.8% from 62% in December, the ISM’s data showed.

Production rose slightly, hitting 63.5% from 63.0% in the prior month.

There was good news on the jobs front as well, as the employment index improved to 61.7% from 58.9% in December.

[...]
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 15:41:28

Once again OF2, thanks for all the work and reporting data from the MSM, especially in the face of so much hostility from your many detractors.

I look forward to your DATA ORIENTED summaries/articles here of how the economy expands going forward (or not, as the case may be).

Again, as a moderate, I don't understand why summarizing economic data as reported by the MSM causes so many here to get so mad. It's just data. (yes, your slant is very optimistic - maybe that's the whole issue).

I believe that the primary case that many real constraints exist and are causing many BIG long term fundamental problems that the doomers are concerned about is valid. The rational thing would SEEM to be to integrate the real world data you present into one's reality - interpreting its overall weight and context (short and long term), as one deems appropriate -- instead of denying it and raging against it. (OTOH, maybe I'm retarded for finding the denial/rage counterproductive?)

For example -- the rising oil prices spurred by intense 3rd world demand WILL impose serious economic pressures if global economic growth continues apace (IMO). (No matter how much the first world might reduce its oil demand in the short term by half-assed measures like Obama mileage mandates by 2017, and that Xeno and his 5 or even 25 thousand buddies might help by purchasing wildly overpriced and hyped Chevy Volts or their ilk).

Now - what that means, how serious that is, and what the likely outcomes are (i.e. the reality/consequences) -- are of course certainly open to reasoned (or unreasoned) debate.

Doomers - don't the fundamental longer term peak oil / economic issues remain true whether, for example, US GDP grows at 2% or 5% in 2011, or am I missing something?

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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 15:58:45

Thanks O.S.

January auto sales came out today, and as posted a week or two ago in the other thread, the good preliminary indications for the month did, in fact, carry through to the rest of the month.

And since this is a peak oil forum, I've highlighted a few notable individual model sales figures, demonstrating how much Americans are expressing their concern about peak oil and high gasoline prices with their wallets.

Not.

LINK
February 01. 2011 2:37PM
Detroit 3 report big January sales gains
Scott Burgess / The Detroit News

Trucks and crossovers helped propel Detroit's carmakers to double-digit sales increases for January.

Meanwhile, foreign carmakers also noted a strong sales month with Hyundai Motor America reporting a 58 percent increase in retail sales and a 22 percent jump in overall sales. Toyota Motor Co. reported a 17.3 percent jump, while Nissan North America had a 14.8 percent increase.

All three of Detroit's carmakers reported sales increases in January, compared to the same month last year.

With its 23 percent jump, Chrysler Group LLC reported its 10th consecutive month of year-over-year sales increases.

Chrysler's Jeep brand led the sales jump; every Jeep model reported a sales increase except the Jeep Commander, which is being discontinued. The all-new Jeep Grand Cherokee more than doubled its sales compared with last January, up 130 percent.

[...]

Ford's fastest selling vehicle in January was the all-new Ford Explorer. Ford sold nearly 8,000 units, increasing sales 73 percent compared to January last year. The redesigned Edge crossover also saw a 36 percent boost in sales.

[...]

Toyota reported a 14.7 increase in January sales for its car division, led by the compact Corolla topping more than 20,000 in sales. Its light truck division posted a 36.5 increase with the Rav4 providing the biggest volume boost and the fullsize Tundra pickup providing the largest percentage increase of 55.9 compared with last January.

[...]
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Tue 01 Feb 2011, 22:36:56

LINK
State Tax Revenues Rise for 4th Straight Quarter
State tax revenues rise at fastest pace in almost 4 years due to growing economy

The Associated Press
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON February 1, 2011 (AP)

A new report says state tax revenues increased in the final three months of last year as the improving economy boosted income and sales taxes receipts.

Tax revenue increased 6.9 percent in the October-December quarter, according to the report from the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, a research institute at the State University of New York. That's based on early data from 41 states. If revenues rise by that pace once all states have reported their data, it would be the fastest increase since the April-June quarter of 2006.

[...]
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Wed 02 Feb 2011, 01:35:50

OF2, people were doing their returns in hopes of getting MORE money back. The middle class isn't, I have no data to prove this point other than personal experience and seeing how many people are disappointed that they're receiving on average $2k less when their taxes last year.

An extra 2k$ means a lot to some people this time of year.

This hasn't hit home yet to the borgue (or however that word is spelled).

A lot of normal folks are being taxed more than they expexted.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Wed 02 Feb 2011, 01:43:55

^
What does that have to do with anything? Thanks to the Obama SS withholding tax cut, I've been getting an extra $40 or so in take home pay this year. And thanks to my purchase of a new house last year I'll be getting a huge deduction on my taxes that I've never had before. So THERE! :razz: And I'm as middle class as anyone.

These blanket statements about "the middle class is blah blah blah" are pretty meaningless. You're characterizing a huge and economically diverse segment of the population who are in an unimaginably huge variety of situations. Some are doing fine, others not, some in-between. You make it sound like they're being all thrown out on the street because they're out of a job and can't find a new one, and all their houses are being foreclosed and yadda yadda yadda. Accentuate the negative and pretend the whole segment of the population is like that. Yeah, sure. :roll:
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby papa moose » Wed 02 Feb 2011, 01:48:25

ColossalContrarian wrote:Your Xeno friend could even change his name to VaselineFinder2.

+1
"That really annoying person you know, the one who's always spouting bullshit, the person who always thinks they're right?
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby papa moose » Wed 02 Feb 2011, 01:55:42

Xenophobe wrote:
Armageddon wrote:If they can only fix these issues :

1) 23% unemployment
snip


Oh please.

#1 underemployment is not unemployment but lets pump those numbers!
snip

This is my favourite, i've seen you make similiar statements in other posts.
Unemployment is very narrowly defined for the explicit purpose of keeping the reportable numbers down.
Try telling someone without a job that they are not counted as "unemployed" this quarter because they did two hours of volunteer community work last week.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 02 Feb 2011, 03:06:59

I'm self employed and haven't worked in 4 months. Where do I show up at ?
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 02 Feb 2011, 03:09:26

How many millions are living in their house and not making the mortgage payments ? Are they propping up the economy by buying shit instead of making the payments ? I guarantee they are.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 02 Feb 2011, 03:16:13

OilFinder2 wrote:As measured by GDP, the old thread(s) is/are now obsolete. We have now officially begun a new chapter in the US economic recovery/expansion.

Article
Recovery Ends. Expansion Begins.
By: MarketMinder Jan 29, 2011

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate of Q4 2010 GDP on Friday. The report showed accelerating growth—to 3.2% annualized real GDP growth in Q4, missing analysts' expectations of 3.5%. While some met the report with disappointment, there are also many strong points.

Of note and little mentioned, US real GDP eclipsed its pre-recession peak for the first time (nominal GDP already accomplished that feat), meaning the economic recovery is now over and expansion has officially begun. And headline GDP isn't the only metric that's expanding—personal spending and exports are both above prior highs

The acceleration from Q3 2010's 2.6% growth was largely driven by two contributors: Consumer spending and net exports. Consumer spending posted its largest quarterly increase (+4.4%) in four years, and net exports, a metric reducing GDP in Q2 and Q3 2010, reversed course and added to headline growth.

[...]

Cool, expansion has begun. Does that mean the rich will continue to expand their pocketbooks and Mercedes-Benz fleets while the middle class languishes with growing student loan debt in a vain attempt to job-retrain to compete because those same rich people exported jobs overseas?

What does it matter? Middle class share of the pie has been shrinking for years. (though have no fear instead of bread and circuses we have food stamps and reality tv)
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Wed 02 Feb 2011, 09:36:20

Armageddon wrote:I'm self employed and haven't worked in 4 months. Where do I show up at ?

Perhaps one of these places.

LINK
Feb. 2, 2011, 9:05 a.m. EST
U.S. private-sector payrolls up 187,000: ADP
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Private-sector employment rose in January, and “strength was evident” in all major industries and sizes of business, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s employment report released Wednesday.

The ADP report showed that private-sector employment rose 187,000, with the service-producing sector gaining 166,000 and the goods-producing sector increasing 21,000.

Employment rose 97,000 at small businesses, 79,000 at medium businesses and 11,000 at large businesses.

For December, ADP reported that private payrolls gained 247,000, compared with a prior estimate of 297,000.

“According to this measure, employment is accelerating and while January’s addition is less than December’s, we remain of the belief that employment gains will continue over the course of the year,” wrote Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist with Miller Tabak, in a research note.

[...]
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Wed 02 Feb 2011, 20:38:21

LINK
Report: January job cuts hit record low
South Florida Business Journal
Date: Wednesday, February 2, 2011, 10:31am EST

January job cuts hit a record low, with employers announcing plans to cut 38,519 jobs in the first month of the year, according to job placement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.

While that’s up from December, when planned layoffs totaled 32,004, it marks the lowest January total since Challenger started keeping track in 1993.

Historically, January is the heaviest job-cut month, according to the report.

“What made this January figure so unusual is that it was so low,” CEO John A. Challenger said in a news release.

[...]
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 09:51:07

Looks like Christmas isn't over after all! :lol:
LINK
Retailers Posting Surprisingly Strong Sales in January
Published: Thursday, 3 Feb 2011

Fears that winter weather would result in disappointing retail sales were overblown, as several retailers not only reported better-than-expected monthly sales reports, they also raised fourth-quarter earnings estimates.

On average, the retail sector reported same-store sales growth of 4.2 percent, according to Thomson Reuters. That far outpaced the average estimate of 2.7 percent, the group said.

Among the notable surprises were Limited, Zumiez, Wet Seal and Gap, which all reported sales at stores open at least 12 months were higher than analysts' estimates. Some of these companies also raised their forecasts for the latest fiscal quarter.

Limited the parent of Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works, reported January sales surged 24 percent, adding to its recent streak of strong results. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expected same-store sales to rise 6.7 percent.

[...]
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 11:10:58

Bad news day for the doomers. Still awaiting that imminent double dip. :razz:

LINK
Service Sector Expands at Fastest Pace in 5 Years
Service sector expands in January at fastest pace since 2005 on higher orders, employment

By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON February 3, 2011 (AP)

The U.S. service sector, which employs nearly 90 percent of the work force, grew in January at the fastest pace in five years, a sign that hiring could pick up soon.

The Institute for Supply Management, a private trade group, said Thursday its index of service sector activity rose to 59.4 last month, up from December's reading of 57.1. That's the 14th straight month of growth. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The report follows a strong reading on Monday from the institute's manufacturing index for January, which rose to its highest level in nearly seven years.

The service index measures a broad sector of the economy, including retailers, hotels, health care companies and financial firms.

The institute's services employment index rose to 54.5, the highest since May 2006. The employment indexes in the manufacturing and service sector indexes both rose in January, a positive sign that the economy may soon generate more jobs.

[...]


And the factory orders report came out today also. The durable goods orders component from last week was revised upward. :shock:

LINK
Orders to U.S. Factories Unexpectedly Increased in December
By Bob Willis - Feb 3, 2011 7:00 AM PT

American factories unexpectedly received more orders in December, led by demand for capital equipment that was stronger than reported last week.

The 0.2 percent increase in bookings topped the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News which called for a 0.5 percent drop, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.9 percent, up from the 1.4 percent gain the government estimated in last week’s durable goods report.

Manufacturers like Caterpillar Inc. are reporting increased demand from U.S. consumers, businesses and customers in developing countries like Brazil and China. Tax breaks for business investment passed last month may provide further momentum to the factory rebound this year.

“We’re seeing a pretty solid rebound in demand for manufactured goods,” Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial in Detroit, said before the report. “That is exactly what we need to see at this point to make this a self- sustaining recovery.”

[...]
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 11:52:42

Corn up 103%
Cotton up 173%
Oats up 121%
Wheat up 105%
Soy up 62%
Copper up 68%
Rice up 74%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby MichaelWallace » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 13:16:46

Armageddon wrote:Corn up 103%
Cotton up 173%
Oats up 121%
Wheat up 105%
Soy up 62%
Copper up 68%
Rice up 74%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.


Since when? Yesterday? YTD? The end of the recession? The surrender of Japan? And is that real or nominal? These numbers are meaningless without more information.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 14:15:18

Release date: 03/02/2011 wrote:The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) rose for the seventh consecutive month, averaging 231 points in January 2011, up 3.4 percent from December 2010 and the highest (in both real and nominal terms) since the index has been backtracked in 1990.
One month rise was 3.4%, which would translate to almost 40% yearly rise. I imagine this index measures a "basket" of prices collected from different regions, and so averages food production costs in inexpensive growing regions (plenty of water, healthy soils) with areas dependent on pumped irrigation and FF fertilizers. Like the MIDDLE EAST. This can't have anything to do with instability in certain desert nations? Or historically high of crude prices?

Nah. I must be just another hysterical doomer :razz:

Image

FAO Food Price Index
Yikes!
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. Expansion has begun.

Unread postby OilFinder2 » Thu 03 Feb 2011, 14:21:57

Armageddon wrote:Copper up 68%
Lumber up 64%

Food prices just hit a record. Good luck with a recovery.

Are we eating metal and wood? Or maybe, just maybe, we're in a recovery?
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