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urban bus systems

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urban bus systems

Unread postby kanon » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 13:22:08

It appears to me that we really are on the downward slope of Hubbert's curve. The Cheap Oil age is ending and for Americans the post WWII empire is in decline. Will we follow the Mayans, whose royalty built their greatest (useless) monuments just prior to their collapse, or will we adapt and reconfigure our society to survive the new reality?

Since transportation is a key factor, I want to discuss public transportation and, in particular, urban bus systems.

It is also my opinion that urban bus systems should be far more economical than individual automobiles, but I don't have the statistics to support that idea. Still, it seems that it has to be more economical to carry many instead of one. The saved money could buy lots of solar panels.

I am hoping to start an informative thread, so please have your facts, figures, and citations ready.

    1. Why do buses cost so much? Is $500k each a fair price or are prices inflated by the federal government and corporate monopolies?
    2. What is the maximum fuel efficiency for a bus? What are the most effective technologies?
    3. Why do we have bus routes? Why not require riders to subscribe to the bus and route only where there are sufficient subscribers?
    4. Why are interconnections so difficult and time consuming? Is it really that hard to match points/times on different routes? Why are connecting buses not associated so they coordinate?
    5. Why does public transportation have to be egalitarian? Why not have first class seats and/or routes?
    6. Why is a rideshare concept not part of the public transportation function?

Bus and Bike idea (just a thought):
    Bus travels within x miles of start and destination
    Buses have two staff - one driver and one bike handler
    Buses hold 20 bikes and 20 riders (whatever is optimal number)
    Riders request a stop, giving start and destination and times
    Requests are queued until enough requests are made to support a route
    Riders pay monthly and have reserved spots
    Routes are added, cancelled, or reconfigured to maintain minimum usage

Some informative links:

Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_transport
About.com public transportation information http://publictransport.about.com/od/Transit_Vehicles/a/How-Much-Does-A-Bus-Cost-To-Purchase-And-Operate.htm
American Public Transportation Association http://www.apta.com/Pages/default.aspx
Top Reasons People Stop Using Public Transit http://www.governing.com/blogs/view/gov-reasons-riders-abandon-public-transit.html

Made in Hayward: Bus Maker Finally Wins a Local Contract (March 23, 2012) http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/us/gillig-a-bus-maker-in-hayward-calif-wins-a-local-contract.html?pagewanted=all
AC Transit agreed to buy 40 buses from the company ( Gillig http://www.gillig.com/ ) for $16.4 million ($410k ea)

New Flyer CEO Sees Growth as U.S. Buses Age (Sep 13, 2013) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/new-flyer-ceo-sees-growth-as-u-s-buses-age.html
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby Pops » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 14:53:31

How about mass Uber?

Riders submit desired pick up and drop off locations and times
software calculates available carriers at that location/time
and creates routes on demand to match!
If there is a lot of demand - more efficient ride - the fare is cheaper
If not the fare is higher.
Optional times/locations are then given for cheaper times/locations.
If you see (on my cool app) a ride near your desired location and destination at a good time you get to hop on for super cheap hitchhiking rate and you bring down everyone elses fare too!
As I understand, Uber has applied for a patent on "Surge Pricing" it charges more when ridership is highest - because it is just a car service with a trick app!

My bus app would be just the opposite, charging less when traffic on your particular route is highest.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby kanon » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 17:31:41

I don't know much about Uber, but I found this right away: "The flat rate between Dallas and the DFW International Airport is $75 for BLACK and $105 for SUV." ($2.50 on DART, if you can figure the connections) I also think the idea for a patent on "surge pricing" would be a real advance, comparable to a patent on a certain rectangle. Seriously, the idea of a Uber-like app has its appeal, possibly applied to ride shares and as a way to bypass cumbersome bureaucracy "planning" and increase responsiveness of the system.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 17:45:12

Buses are often LESS efficient than cars.
They are required to run inefficient routes, at peak hours they work, at 11pm they don't.

The problem is that in order to get folks to ride the bus you need to have the off peak connections, no one wants to get stuck at the office with a 2 hour wait. Same for commuter trains.

Also, buses are pretty expensive for a lot of low income folks. If two or three of us want to go somewhere it is often cheaper to take a cab.

My proposal is to make all urban mass transit FREE. It is a paid for infrastructure that we then restrict its use. That's what you do when you have a toll road as opposed to a city street. On a toll road you charge a premium to use the premium service and there is an alternative OR you want to a disincentive to keep folks from driving. Folks riding public transit are not using a premium service and you want to encourage them to give up their cars. Dumb idea.

You want to make the bus and commuter rail systems more effective? You want to take progressive actions to empower the poor and put people to work? FREE the transit system.

Taking fares cost up to 30% of the fare gate intake, newer systems are making that better, but still about 15%.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 18:44:04

I've lived in London for a while and travelled a few times to Paris and NY,you really cant beat a good underground rail system for big cities,you would be mad to have a car there.
Having lived in Melbourne most of my life,electric trams(light rail/trolley) are pretty good for medium sized cities.
Solution is multi pronged though as buses are quicker (not during peak hour in the city though)and required less infrastructure but Living on or near a tram route most of my time there was excellent for getting around.

Melbourne has the largest urban tramway network in the world

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trams_in_Melbourne
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 18:57:40

This is a topic I have discussed in the past, my inputs are based on over 20 living and travelling in developing countries where still the majority of people use public transportation. There is a perfect solution just waiting to happen for America that is already functioning in many countries. We could solve part of our unemployment and transportation problems with allowing independent ownership of micro buses that would link light rail, large metro buses, subways, Barts etc. If you look at the existing private and public transportation in many large american cities there are major arteries of interstate highways that lead from city centers out to suburban sprawl areas. Major bus lines or light rail or metro could run on or parallel to these interstates and at every exit you have a bus station were independently owned micro buses would take people from these exits to the major residential areas.

Micro buses are light, fuel efficient and independently owned drivers could offer very competitive fares to commuters.

The problem is that in the US we don't allow these micro buses because of insurance and liability issues. If we could solve that and allow them to be sold and allow independent ownership we could eliminate much of the need for private vehicles. You can even take this one level more funky and have jeepney style privately owned collective buses or even tricycles, but that would be way down the Hubberts curve.

Implementing micro buses for urban and suburban transportation would be a great solution.

Just google micro buses images to see the available assortment.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby Pops » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 19:12:30

Man, I thought I had the killer app.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 19:29:45

Ibon wrote:The problem is that in the US we don't allow these micro buses because of insurance and liability issues. If we could solve that and allow them to be sold and allow independent ownership we could eliminate much of the need for private vehicles. You can even take this one level more funky and have jeepney style privately owned collective buses or even tricycles, but that would be way down the Hubberts curve.


We have a ton of stuff like this around here (DC). Necessity breeds solutions.

There are many private shuttles (free) that take people from metro stops to non-metro accessible office parks.

From fairly well organized van pools to micro-buses that people find out about who knows where which are little more than stretch vans that some recent immigrant (usually) started driving and getting customers from the suburban neighborhoods.

And, then there are the slug-lines that have become legendary around here.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby kanon » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 20:41:15

my inputs are based on over 20 living and travelling in developing countries where still the majority of people use public transportation.


The micro bus is a great idea. In your travels, did you learn the price of a 40 ft bus in some of these other countries?
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby basil_hayden » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 21:19:37

http://www.ctfastrak.com

$567 million, 9 miles, 13 riders, I believe.

Who says you can't keep a bunch of people busy.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 22:09:15

I'm not a bus expert, but I have some insight,more so in rail. I'll try to answer your questions within my ability. I some cases I have been privy to related discussions, so I know a little.

1. Why do buses cost so much? Is $500k each a fair price or are prices inflated by the federal government and corporate monopolies?

I know of no "monopolies". Sure transit companies are natural monopolies, but they get nothing by paying more for a bus. My impression is that the purchases are highly competitive.

2. What is the maximum fuel efficiency for a bus? What are the most effective technologies?

Max fuel efficieny depends upon how you calculate it. Airlines get about 90mpg, because they divide the planes usage per person. So if I take my Ford wagon on a trip with 5 people and get 20mpg I'm getting 100mpg as the airlines calculate it.

A bus on a heavy route is carrying maybe 40 or 50 folks so they get great mileage. That exact same bus on the same route a 0 dark 30 is getting terrible mileage, because there are 0 to 2 riders. That is a huge dilemma for transit companies, how do you match the capacity to the need?

One simple way is to encourage employers to stagger working hours. Helps transit, helps the highways too. It is tried off and on, but never really successful. But to rag on this a bit, who would run a factory one shift a day? Yet that is what we do with our office buildings, one shift a day. Huge waste of space and heat and infrastructure.

3. Why do we have bus routes? Why not require riders to subscribe to the bus and route only where there are sufficient subscribers?

We have routes because you need to know where the bus goes to get on it. Subscriptions mean you would have to sign up and then actually use it when the service starts. People don't work like that.

If you are trying to get commuters onto a bus or rail vehicle you need about 3 years to reach target ridership. Why? Because people buy a car, and then have it for about 5 years. Once the decision to purchase has been made they stick with it until time comes to buy another car. Then they may reconsider. The converse is true also, if you disrupt a service, and force people into cars, then it takes a long time to get them back.

Bottom line is that you are really trying to change long term behaviour patterns, not easy, takes consistency and time. Get someone to sell his car, then change or cut back his route, go from 30 minute headway to an hour headway, and you will NEVER get him back.

4. Why are interconnections so difficult and time consuming? Is it really that hard to match points/times on different routes? Why are connecting buses not associated so they coordinate?

This is a huge deal in transit, which is simpler than buses because it's easier to make the trains run on time. Tons of planning goes into trying to make the most logical "meets" so that you can run the vehicle efficiently on a simple schedule, and still have your operators make their runs.

Believe it or not, transit system DESIGN and starts with figuring out the runs and meets. They use computer simulation software to run "string charts". You even figure in the engineers potty break time at the terminal. This is done with the civil design, because you need to know you speed profiles, slow curve, station dwell times, etc. only then can you start on the signaling design to support this kind of operation.

On busses there are simply far to many dynamic parameters to do a solid design, you fiupgure it out and take your best shot.

There are specialty "run cutting" scheduling programs that seek to optimize these problems. The programs try to optimize driver availability to the route, so you don't end up with a bus without a driver. Bus drivers often have to work "split shifts" say from 6 to 10 and then 3 to 7. Great job eh? To account for drivers, or engineers, that don't show up agencies have an "extra board", folks that sit around waiting to be assigned a route because someone didn't show up. Of course, they need to know the route, or the engineer needs to be qualified on the territory, or they are likely to make a real muck of it.

Yeah, it really is that tough.

And that's not to mention all the interference they get from the public and pols. A particular Civi group wants a special service or stop, some constituent wants a stop near his church or store. Road work, traffic jams, hills in snow all frig things up.

5. Why does public transportation have to be egalitarian? Why not have first class seats and/or routes?

Really? Well it does. Air lines, Accela, Amtrak regional, commuter rail, subways, trollyies, buses, walk. That's the pecking order. And if you don't like that buy a car, hire a limo, or get a taxi.

6. Why is a rideshare concept not part of the public transportation function?

It is, for the handicapped. And just ask someone who relies upon those services to see how well they work. Dismal was an opptomist. My Wife has had patients with a weekly scheduled appointment. Same time, same day, every week. Many times they were late or she would find them in the waiting room hours after the appointment, waiting for the ride back. Just sitting there in quiet bone crushing desperation. :cry:

..........
There is much wrong with public transit in the US. I've made my career in and around it in various forms. I'm not a big fan. It can bring out the very worst in people.

On the other hand, they have a pretty damn tough job that, I. Their own way, moast try to struggle through believing in their hearts they are doing good for society and culture and their community. They are just average folks doing an average job.

It's about like congress.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby kanon » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 23:37:59

Hampton Roads Transit announced it will spend $5.39 million to rebuild 28 buses ($192k each) . . . numerous components will be replaced including engines, transmissions, seats, air springs, doors and heating and air conditioning systems. All buses will be repainted and returned to service in as nearly new condition as possible . . . 14 (new) trolleys, with a cost of about $6 million ($428k each) . . . . http://www.metro-magazine.com/bus/news/ ... e-trolleys
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby kanon » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 13:33:57

The Toyota HiAce is often used as a mini-bus, but the HiAce and its variants are not available in the United States and Canada. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_HiAce New Commuter Bus Petrol Auto drive out cost in Australian dollars ~ $60k.

Newfi is pretty discouraging. His response sounds like a litany of oppression and hopelessness for bus transport. A viable system needs several inter-operating modes apparently. I was hoping to focus on buses and identify the key characteristics of success and the main impediments. What I am finding is there are serious logistical issues and the impediments are quite well placed. The de-facto ban on mini-buses in the US is perhaps the most important impediment.

I think it has been said before, but prior preparation prevents poor performance. If we give credence to the notion that there is oil demand destruction due to higher prices and a spiral of declining demand connected (perhaps counter intuitively) to declining production, leading to declining transportation, leading to declining economy, leading to ... then investment in efficient public transportation makes a lot of sense.

I will ramble a bit. Interestingly, there is actually more space devoted to autos than to homes in American cities. https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch6en/conc6en/modespeedsurf.html In Texas, the Dept. of Trans. has attempted to offload responsibility for roads to the cities and counties. http://www.tml.org/legis_updates/txdot-state-highway-maintenance-to-some-cities This is evidence of the uneconomic nature of many roads. The sensible response for cities is to abandon the road use and sell the roadway to developers. In fact, there is a huge amount of space in American cities that will become "available" as the peak oil scenario unfolds and it is no longer useful for autos. In this context, public transportation gains importance, I would assume.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 22:34:42

Sorry to be so discouraging, in fact that was one of my more light hearted posts on the topic! Seriously!

In fact I was discussing transit issues with a professional transit planner some years ago. He was very clear that transit is much more difficult in the US than elsewhere because of our distributed housing style. In Europe the cities and towns have a higher population density. The towns tend to more autonomous units in that they have a recognizable center with shopping for the necessities, food, clothing, beer.

In the US we have a much more dispersed population. Individual communities, or ebpven town house developments, the size of small town pop up. And they have no business core, no corner bar. You need a car for everything. These developments are very difficult to serve efficiently with transit, there are too many steps between stops to make it attractive.

I live in a center city, I have worked my whole career in transit, I will ride Amtrak to NYC at 6:30 tomorrow, and take PATH to Lowe Manhattan. I NEVER ride ride the local system. It's slow, noisy, expensive and inconvenient. It doesn't go where I want to go in a reasonable time. If I want to get a 2 by 4, I can't do that on a bus. The Home Depot is 5 miles, the trip takes me at least 90 minutes by car, and that beats a bus hands down.

On a parting note, one should ask, when looking at housing, "How many miles to a gallon of milk?"
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 23:05:15

kanon wrote:The de-facto ban on mini-buses in the US is perhaps the most important impediment.
I'm not following you here. There are minibus/shuttle bus services all over the country. You can rent one at sites like:

Minibus or CharterBus

Or book a ride at sites like: Airport Express or SuperShuttle

There are also special services for Seniors or the Disabled
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 23:49:46

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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby kanon » Wed 28 Jan 2015, 01:45:43

Yes, there are mini-buses and shuttles that one can rent, but there are few that actually fit into a day-to-day transportation program. I live in Dallas, Texas and the DART system here is fairly reasonable, but when I was in Houston you could say it was the most anti-public transportation place in the world. Dallas has a new regulation on "transportation for hire" which includes mini-buses. It is $1000/yr permit plus other fees, insurance requirements, and more. Importantly, it appears a "transportation for hire" service may not be allowed to have a route. It must not refuse passengers due to origin, destination, or length of trip. http://www.dallascityhall.com/council_briefings/briefings0614/TransportationForHire_061814.pdf Also, it is unclear how this fits with the neighboring government hodgepodge. So there is a movement to relax regulations and lighten the "de-facto ban."

The main thing is not just that there is some availability, but that one could actually get by solely on public (mass) transportation. That is impossible here, but it is a little closer to possible now.

As I study this issue, I see more and more how things are fixed and options closed. It appears there is a trend back to making public (mass) transportation more feasible. You see it with the removal of obstacles one at a time.

American cities are very spread out and public transportation logistics are difficult, but I think we should look at those areas of the city that would work with a transportation system and put it in there. I think the argument that it is too difficult or expensive to serve the entire city should not be credited.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 28 Jan 2015, 07:17:15

There are more innovative options, even further removed from possibility.

Telecommuting he not panned out as expected. Studies ( no source) have found that instead of helping home bound people find work, it is helping those with traditional jobs work longer hours.

Then there is the idea of work and wealth distribution itself. There are too few jobs to go around. We try to fix this by creating "make work" jobs. This creates churn and needless travel.

So, in addition to moving folks easier, think move folks less.

....
In the broader perspective, move GOODS less. Buy local. The California drought may assist with this.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby kanon » Wed 28 Jan 2015, 17:43:45

Here in Dallas, we have an extensive toll road system, the NTTA https://www.ntta.org. I have been reading up on it to compare with DART http://www.dart.org. I think a toll road is a little easier to estimate actual driving costs with. I did some cost comparisons, which may not be accurate, but I challenge anyone to glean information from the lengthy reports that allows easy comparisons. Basically, a DART system monthly pass is $80/mo or $960/yr. The tollway seems to collect an average of $196/yr per car. Add an AAA composite auto cost of $0.60/mi and estimated average drive of 4.6 mi 260 times a year and the auto cost is $726, for a total estimated cost of $922/yr. For a consumer, the cost is nearly equal. So, my estimates are wrong or the DART is too expensive (but not having to drive is worth something, heh). Figuring the NTTA cost for a consumer is difficult. I used $585M revenue / 3M tags and their figure of $0.16 per mile average toll. It may be there are fewer than 3M commuters so the per commuter cost is higher than the estimate. Of course, the consumer costs for DART are subsidized, since fares only cover part of the cost.

The NTTA has about 97 miles of expressways, 770 employees, and debt of around $7.6 billion. DART has 90 miles of light rail, about 816 buses, 3,680 employees, and debt of about $3.5 billion.
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Re: urban bus systems

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Wed 28 Jan 2015, 18:13:01

Cant beat a good maglev train system
It will be interesting to see what China does with it in the next few years.
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