Here is the UK govt's (pre-election) renewable energy roadmap. Full pdf here https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/48128/2167-uk-renewable-energy-roadmap.pdf
What do people think?
Executive Summary
The Coalition Government has made clear its commitment to increasing the
deployment of renewable energy across the UK in the sectors of electricity, heat
and transport. This will make the UK more energy secure, will help protect
consumers from fossil fuel price fluctuations, is driving investment in new jobs
and businesses in the renewable energy sector, as well as keep us on track to
meet our carbon reduction objectives for the coming decades. Renewables will
be a key part of the decarbonisation of the energy sector necessary by 2030,
alongside nuclear, carbon capture and storage, and improvements in energy
efficiency.
Over the last year the Office for Renewable Energy Deployment in DECC, has
been working with market participants and others from across the renewables
sector to better understand how much renewable energy can be deployed
through to 2020, and to identify the current constraints which must be
addressed to allow this rapid transformation.
The result, from multiple sources, forms the heart of this plan – a delivery
Roadmap to set us on the path to achieve the UK’s renewable energy target
over the next decade.
Our evidence shows that:
• Even though we are starting from a low level, the UK can meet the target to
deliver 15% of the UK’s energy consumption from renewable sources by
2020. Recent ‘bottom-up’ analysis, tested with industry, suggests that there
is significant upside potential as well as downside risk to deployment;
• Based on current information, and taking account of their long term potential
as well as their cost effectiveness, 8 technologies are capable of delivering
more than 90% of the renewable energy we need for 2020;
• Renewable electricity has become well established. The existing pipeline1 of
large-scale projects is strong, and allowing for historic dropout rates, has the
potential to put us on track to deliver a total of 29 GW of operational capacity
by 2020;
• The pipeline for renewable heat projects is less well developed, but following
the introduction of the world’s first incentive for renewable heat, could deliver
as many as 124,000 renewable heat installations by 2020;
• Road transport biofuels already make up over 3% by volume of all road
transport fuels and are proposed to increase to 5% by 2014. Subject to the
results of current consultations, Government will come forward with options
1 Source: Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD). REPD planning data does not currently pick up
conversion from coal plant or new-build capacity for co-firing.
UK Renewable Energy Roadmap
6
in Spring 2012 for the period after 2014;
• The costs of renewable energy technologies are uncertain but are expected
to fall over time as supply chains develop, technical challenges are
overcome, and the cost of capital reduces with lower risk;
• There are cross cutting barriers to deployment for all or many of the
renewable energy technologies as well as barriers that apply to specific
technologies, all of which need to be addressed to achieve our aims for
deployment and cost reduction.
This Roadmap shows where we are now; analysis of how deployment may
evolve by 2020, together with separate estimates of the market’s view of the
potential; and the actions required to set us on the path to achieve the
deployment levels anticipated in our analysis.
While renewable deployment across all technologies will be important, the
Roadmap focuses in particular on the 8 technologies that have either the
greatest potential to help the UK meet the 2020 target in a cost effective and
sustainable way, or offer great potential for the decades that follow. The key
actions in this Roadmap for each of the 8 technologies are:
• Onshore wind: Provide long term certainty for investors through electricity
market reform and a managed transition from the Renewables Obligation.
Reform the planning system to ensure it supports economic growth and
gives communities a greater stake in development. Co-fund the
development of technical solutions to overcome windfarm interference with
aviation radar and broker roll-out plans, including through a new
Memorandum of Understanding with industry. Upgrade onshore
transmission capacity and ensure that developers secure timely and costeffective
access to the network and put in place a process to monitor
delivery;
• Offshore wind: Establish an industry Task Force to set out a path and
action plan to reduce the costs of offshore wind to £100/MWh by 2020.
Provide up to £30m of direct Government support for offshore wind cost
reduction over the next 4 years. Work through the Offshore Wind
Developers Forum to support the development of the supply chain alongside
action to encourage new manufacturing facilities at port sites. Manage
conflicts with oil and gas exploration, provide greater certainty over financial
incentives, and ensure timely and coordinated development of the grid
through the Offshore Transmission Coordination Project;
• Marine energy: Provide up to £20m over the next 4 years to support
innovation in wave and tidal devices and commission marine energy testing
facilities at the National Renewable Energy Centre (NaREC) early in 2012.
Work with The Crown Estate to introduce a knowledge sharing network to
accelerate the level of marine energy deployment. Provide guidance to the
sector by March 2012 to help develop Marine Energy Parks in order to
stimulate the supply chain. Manage potential conflicts with other users of the
UK Renewable Energy Roadmap
7
sea by working with marine regulators and publishing later this year the
response to the wave and tidal elements of the Offshore Energy Strategic
Environmental Assessment;
• Biomass electricity: Publish a UK Bioenergy Strategy later this year
articulating a clear vision for the growth of sustainable biomass energy in the
UK. Apply the Strategy in deciding, a year ahead of the original timetable,
new Renewables Obligation bands to come into force from April 2013, and
link payments to sustainability standards from April 2013. Focus on
measures to support long-term waste fuel supplies including through
possible landfill restrictions on waste wood. Work with regulators to
introduce cost effective fuel monitoring and sampling systems and ensure
that environmental legislation does not have an unintended impact on
renewable energy plant;
• Biomass heat: Increase the attractiveness of biomass heat and biomethane
injection into the grid through introduction of the Renewable Heat Incentive
(RHI) and the Renewable Heat Premium Payment (RHPP) in Great Britain.
Consult this summer on a new scheme to support renewable heat in
Northern Ireland subject to agreement of the Northern Ireland Executive.
Ensure sustainability of biomass heat through the introduction of reporting
criteria for feedstock from 2011 and emission performance standards under
phase 2 of the RHI. Work with regulators to enable Anaerobic Digestion
plant to benefit from reduced regulatory burdens and faster permitting,
including whether it is appropriate to amend regulations which apply to
biogas injection to the grid;
• Ground source and air source heat pumps: Introduce the RHI for nondomestic
installations and the RHPP for eligible domestic scale heat pumps.
Streamline the planning and consenting processes through the provision of
guidance for open-loop ground source heat pumps and permitted
development rights for some air source heat pumps on domestic properties.
Collect data on how best to improve heat pump performance and raise the
technical abilities of installers by tightening standards of training under the
Microgeneration Certification Scheme;
• Renewable transport: Identify and agree a preferred approach to achieve
the 2020 transport sub-target, and actions for implementation after 2014.
Consider the European Commission’s proposals on Indirect Land-Use
Change impacts of biofuels with a view to ensuring effective standards.
Support the market for plug-in vehicles by making up to £30m available for
investment in recharging infrastructure and providing a grant of up to 25% of
the purchase price (capped at £5000) for eligible electric, plug-in hybrid or
hydrogen fuel cell cars.
Taking these actions will not only help drive deployment across the UK but will
also be key to reducing the costs of renewables, enabling technologies to
mature so that over the medium to long-term they no longer need additional
support to compete on a level playing field against other low carbon
UK Renewable Energy Roadmap
8
technologies.
Of course, technology costs, innovation breakthroughs and barriers to
deployment will change over time. Government will closely monitor deployment
and the development of the market. We will update the Roadmap on an annual
basis so that we know how we are doing and whether other technologies can
make a bigger or cheaper contribution than is assumed here.
We want the UK to be the location of choice for inward investment and a world
class centre of energy expertise. The actions set out in this Roadmap will
enable us to successfully exploit our renewable resources, make a strong
contribution to our energy needs, provide opportunities for jobs and wealth
creation, and contribute to efforts to reduce emissions of harmful greenhouse
gases.