ROCKMAN wrote:It's mostly due to the Marcellus Shale and the production capability of frac'd horizontal well bores. The NG rig count peaked in Dec 2008 at 1606 thanks to the surge in conventional and unconventional drilling due to high NG prices. The count has fallen 80% to 300 last week. At current prices there are very few conventional NG wells that can be justified.
The last time both oil and NG prices were at current levels the rig count was less than 800.
GoghGoner wrote:So Marcellus had a high rig count of 143 in January, 2012 and are now at 69. I would think that we should see at least a plateau in that region by the summer but I have been wrong too many times (Rockman, you warned me about taking rig counts and making predictions a few years back but I just can't help myself).
I remember a presentation by CHK a few years ago that said if NG rigs dropped below 700 that production would fall in the US. Didn't happen so even the insiders got it wrong. Just because the wells have been so prolific the past couple of years does not mean that the economics support them or that they can keep hitting super sweet spots in Marcellus. It also doesn't mean what happened with NG will happen with oil. I would bet against that,too.
I'll be watching with interest...
Last week Bloomberg started tracking predictions made on Twitter using the hashtag #RigCountGuesses. The closest guess this week was from @GregorMacdonald:
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