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U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Cog » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 11:06:15

Yeah the Chinese really want to have it both ways. The could absolutely put the screws to North Korea on their food and oil imports. But they haven't done that yet. On the other hand they don't like the bad press that comes when Kim does something stupid. Nobody really cares about North Korea except for the nuclear weapons part of the equation.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 14:11:44

And any exchange of fire between NK and the USA would disrupt world markets,mpotentially quite a lot. I think that would hurt China quite a bit as they struggle to keep the economy growing. So my guess is that they would like to see this mess simmer down, but will act to stop an exchange.

Now the Russians probably have less to loose by an exchange. They might see an opening to grab NK.

I can't see either one allowing SK to reunite with NK. I see NK as a truly independent state. So I think it will end up a part of China, officially or not. China stabilizes the situation, gains some land, makes a profit, looks a good guy. What is the down side?

Russia is the wild card.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 14:31:12

If NK cedes to China then I would think China would need to create a free travel zone to allow families to finally reunite. It's as unacceptable to keep the country split as it was Germany. Likewise, if China has business interests with NK then some sort of deal could probably be worked out to assuage their concerns. Diplomacy is the art of compromise, after all.

The closest thing I can think of as far as China taking over territory would be Hong Kong, which seemed to go relatively smoothly.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 18:41:45

Hong Kong was an organised handover, not a takeover, thus any buffer state elements had been diffused over decades previous. Aside from being an otherwise utterly different setup. South Korea is west aligned. NK is the buffer State to SK & western bases. Not a easily absorbed neighbour, for myriad reasons.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 18:59:35

asg70 wrote:If NK cedes to China then I would think China would need to create a free travel zone to allow families to finally reunite. It's as unacceptable to keep the country split as it was Germany.

You make an excellent point but several governments have failed to see the logic of that same point over the years. Let us hope this time is different considering the economic and humanitarian benefits that could easily be obtained by just fully opening the border between North and South Korea.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 19:02:23

Just thinking this brinkmanship through and thought this thought.

China tells NK, look dude, you screwed the pooch. Trumps is out for you. We can help you. We will send over a few thousand troops and a missile defense system. Then we will tell the USA " If you attack and kill our troops we will consider this an act of war on China."

But then you've got Putin saying the same thing, trying to get his Russian Army ensconced in NK.

So you have both China and Russia wooing NK.

Of course neither one rally cares about NK. What they want is their own military presence there so that they can take out the current leadership and install a puppet government when they desire to.

I don't know what hand, if any, Trump would have in this play.

Sound reasonable?
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Cog » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 20:12:56

We already have issues with China building artificial islands all over the South China Sea and claiming territory far away from mainland China. Reinforcing a nuclear armed North Korea with an advanced missile defense system is tantamount to a declaration of war. That is the way I would treat it if I were Trump.

If China wants to replace Kim and get rid of North Korea's nuclear program, then that would be acceptable to the US. But there is no circumstances under which we are going to allow North Korea to have a working nuclear weapons program no matter who is in charge over there.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 04:14:49

If either China or Russia took over complete control of North Korea at this point it would be a calming action. They would end the NK missile development program and just move in their existing missile systems if they wanted to though that would be a useless gesture as both the Chinese and Russians fully understand MAD.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 07:05:36

Right, it doesn't change the position with China or Russia but eliminates the nutcase who is mad. I suspect that is what is going on, with China Nd Russia jockeying and the USA providing the lubrication.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 10:49:58

SeaGypsy wrote:South Korea is west aligned. NK is the buffer State to SK & western bases. Not a easily absorbed neighbour, for myriad reasons.


NK as a buffer state is a holdover from the cold-war. It's no longer needed as a buffer state and is now just an albatross for China. Once the cost of maintaining the status quo becomes unacceptable, China will likely have backroom meetings with the West and go clobber NK with a mutually agreed-upon endgame.

If NK dick-wags to the point where it looks like they will actually start a war it would be far more beneficial to launch a massive preemptive strike and decapitate the leadership there than to wait for them to make the first move. Really, it's a matter of whether NK is willing to cross an invisible line or not.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 10:56:07

vtsnowedin wrote: You make an excellent point but several governments have failed to see the logic of that same point over the years. Let us hope this time is different considering the economic and humanitarian benefits that could easily be obtained by just fully opening the border between North and South Korea.


The fact of the matter is that NK is effectively a welfare state with a bunch of starving brainwashed masses. Other than as slave labor there's very little of value there. One could make the case that it would be better for China to hand NK to SK so that SK carries the Marshall-plan style costs to rebuild the country.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 12:15:40

Just turning the cash N. Korea is wasting on it's military towards agriculture and economic development would go a long way towards fixing the problems they have.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 13:21:07

vtsnowedin wrote:Just turning the cash N. Korea is wasting on it's military towards agriculture and economic development would go a long way towards fixing the problems they have.


Sounds nice but North Korea is also is a major weapons exporter. They earn a lot of foreign currency from their Industrial-Military Complex. Arms exporting of guns, miissiles, chem WMDs etc. is probably one of the strengths of the North Korean economy. The recent murder of the brother of Kim with a chemical nerve agent can be seen as product placement for the North Koreans---they'll get a lot of orders for VX after that successful attack. Their successful ICBM launches and atomic bombs allow them to sell technology to Iran and others bad guys who want into the nuclear club. Its a winner for them.

north-korea-arms-smuggling

Cheers!
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 26 Apr 2017, 14:26:57

It will be hard for them to sell anything if they manage to get themselves blown into a smoking ash heap.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 27 Apr 2017, 00:31:04

vtsnowedin wrote:It will be hard for them to sell anything if they manage to get themselves blown into a smoking ash heap.


Yup.

At the big White House meeting on NK Trump indicated he is going to rely on diplomatic pressure and sanctions to get NK to stop their nuke program.

On the other hand, he's moved a lot of US naval assets into dangerous waters around NK.

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump wants to see something like the 1964 Tonkin Gulf incident happen again, i.e. some kind of US Navy interaction with the North Koreans that Trump can use to justify a US military response.

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In 1964 LBJ used the Tonkin Gulf incident to take the US into the Vietnam War. Will Trump do something similar now to start a war against North Korea?
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Cog » Thu 27 Apr 2017, 07:28:09

We cured Japan and Germany of their mental disease back in WW2. We can cure the North Koreans of theirs.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 27 Apr 2017, 10:30:04

Cog wrote:We cured Japan and Germany of their mental disease back in WW2. We can cure the North Koreans of theirs.

Yeah but the hospital bill was a Dammed stiff one.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 27 Apr 2017, 11:08:02

vtsnowedin wrote:
Cog wrote:We cured Japan and Germany of their mental disease back in WW2. We can cure the North Koreans of theirs.

Yeah but the hospital bill was a Dammed stiff one.


There is a more recent example then WWII.

That was the idea behind the very expensive nation building projects carried out in both Afghanistan and Iraq by Bush and Obama. The goal was to create a model democracy in the Arab world i.e. we'll cure them of their mental disease.

AND how did that work out?

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The US has been a flop when it comes to nation building
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 27 Apr 2017, 11:23:58

Cog wrote:We cured Japan and Germany of their mental disease back in WW2. We can cure the North Koreans of theirs.


We did not cure it, we caught it. It's called GRANDIOSITY.
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Re: U.S. Navy sends strike group toward North Korea

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 27 Apr 2017, 17:46:17

vtsnowedin wrote:Just turning the cash N. Korea is wasting on it's military towards agriculture and economic development would go a long way towards fixing the problems they have.

As in the US, say towards infrastructure spending and jobs -- if we'd use our military only for our defense (instead of interventionist adventures), and have our partners pay their fair share where we're expected to be "the tip of the sphere" for things like keeping oil transit fairly safe in the Persian Gulf, etc.
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