[ROCKMAN]

70 - Good post but I will to address by perennial bitch. "...the peak of conventional oil". There is no such thing as "conventional oil". There are conventional and unconventional RESERVOIRS. One can take an oil sample, have it analyzed in as much detail as you like and you still couldn't tell if if came from a well completed in a conventional or unconventional reservoir.

Also producing a lot of oil wells in unconventional reservoirs is not new. Some of the largest oil fields discovered in Texas more then half a century ago were unconventional fractured reservoirs found in the Permian Basin in the Spraberry trend discovered in the 1950's. Like most fractured unconventional reservoirs vertical wells tend to not be very impressive. But the reserve potential can be huge:

"In 2007, the U.S. Department of Energy ranked The Spraberry Trend third in the United States by total proved reserves, and seventh in total production. Estimated reserves for the entire Spraberry-Dean unit exceed 10 billion barrels, and by the end of 1994 the field had reported a total production of 924 million barrels."

Almost 1 BILLION BBLS OF OIL before it was drilled horizontally.

More recently, the Austin Chalk carbonate shale was THE hottest oil play in the 90's after we started drilling it horizontally almost 30 years ago. And that wasn't the first AC boom: it took off big time in the late 70's when we only drilled it vertically. One of the reasons the rig count grew to over 4,500...twice that of the recent "shale boom". The Rockman started in 1975 and this was his first overhyped play. LOL.

Some of you newbies think you just stumbled into something unknown. In fact, you are late to the game. Way f*cking late. LOL. For us old farts this is just the same ole same ole.

[vtsnowedin]

ethanol is not oil. Nor is refinery gain, it's puffery (literally). Same with butane, propane (and dare I say cocaine lol) All the anes are processed gas. That uses lots of equipment, energy, compressors, special tanks, trucks. Burns up more energy.

No they are not crude oil but they are finished products. You can run a heavy truck on propane or heat your house with it instead of fuel oil/diesel. Even ethanol replaces about seven percent of gasoline demand after you account for reduced mpg in E10 gas blends. Unfortunately a lot of diesel gets used growing and processing the corn to make the ethanol so it is pretty much a wash. All the rest (the thanes ) are useful products you would have to find replacements for if you didn't have them.

[AdamB]

I know this is off-topic but I came back in this thread after less than 24 hours and two new pages of back and forth sniping has been added.

The prediction that I'm most interested in (albeit petty, I know) is what the endgame of all this ETP vs. anti-ETP chatter on peakoil.com will be.

The ETP stuff is sort of a squatter phenomenon which is attempting to overtake the site by filibustering tactics. Apparently this has been going on for years already and it's becoming sort of the ideological equivalent of the Palestine/Israeli crisis in the sense that it has no resolution.

If the mods do not make the hard choice to eject ETPers then this kind of chatter will continue to infect and dominate the day to day discussion, despite the fact there are really no new insights and it's simply a matter of running over the same ground again and again.

I agree. Can those of us who AREN'T ETP salesmen agree that we'll stop encouraging their sales, and the mods can cut the sales calls off at the knees, maybe copy them to the ETP sales thread? I will take the pledge first, and stop talking about ETP other than noting it should be in the ETP sales thread.

[kublikhan]

I agree. Can those of us who AREN'T ETP salesmen agree that we'll stop encouraging their sales, and the mods can cut the sales calls off at the knees, maybe copy them to the ETP sales thread? I will take the pledge first, and stop talking about ETP other than noting it should be in the ETP sales thread.

Agreed.

[vtsnowedin]

vt, welcome to the EROEI club Nice to have you along buddy.

Let's share a cold one.

There is a huge difference between understanding EROEI and mistakenly believing that it is already shutting down the oil industry.
Having a cold one right now as I type this.

[onlooker]

Okay, where do I start. First off by commending Tanada even as he does not agree with the Etp model conclusions he has allowed it to be discussed. That is what this and other sites are about FREE SPEECH. Second, we on this thread and even on the specific Etp threads are discussing a broad range of issues. Finally, I have no problem having specific Etp threads so that that subject can be exclusively debated there. In accord with the general rules and etiquette we should try and keep as closely aligned to the thread topic as possible. So, silencing and booting out is a pretty inflammatory request. The rules and the Mods exist to make those calls.
Oh and Pstarr hilarious

[kublikhan]

Can I join?

Actually you were the one who asked for this even before we did:

this isn't about Etp, asgy. That belongs in the Etp thread.

Finally, I have no problem having specific Etp threads so that that subject can be exclusively debated there.

That's exactly what we want.

[AdamB]

70 - Good post but I will to address by perennial bitch. "...the peak of conventional oil". There is no such thing as "conventional oil".

It isn't just your bitch. But there is a reason for it, and it comes back to either A) ignorance or B) the need to come up with rationalizations for folks when they were wrong about peak oil.

There are conventional and unconventional RESERVOIRS. One can take an oil sample, have it analyzed in as much detail as you like and you still couldn't tell if if came from a well completed in a conventional or unconventional reservoir.

Interesting. So Bakken sourced oil from the source rock is unconventional reservoirs and Bakken sourced oil in conventional reservoirs is conventional? Seems like both are reservoirs to me, why is the source/reservoir rock one thing, and a different reservoir rock another? They are after all just...rock.

I taught a couple weeks ago and told the folks in the room that if they see the word "conventional" or "unconventional" in front of the words oil, gas, reservoir or drilling, they should immediately be suspicious of the perspective or understanding of the person saying it. They should expect such words used incorrectly, but it is a tell and they need to know it.

[AdamB]

Okay, where do I start. First off by commending Tanada even as he does not agree with the Etp model conclusions he has allowed it to be discussed. That is what this and other sites are about FREE SPEECH.

And there is a thread for pitching report sales related to ETP. This is one about looming oil shortages, now low priced oil reviving the world economy.

Second, we on this thread and even on the specific Etp threads are discussing a broad range of issues. Finally, I have no problem having specific Etp threads so that that subject can be exclusively debated there.

Excellent! Mods, can everything ETP like in this thread be moved to the ETP thread, where the salesmen can hawk their wares and exercise their free speech rights to their hearts content? And everyone who doesn't want to see their advertising can then avoid it?

[AdamB]

Kub, can we discuss other net-energy models? I'd sure like to discuss embodied life-cycle aka Pimentel, ASPEN, GREET and Shapouri. Are those off the table also? That would make me sad ooooooh sad

Sounds good to me, until 5 or 6 sock puppets show up to pitch for sales to buy reports on them anyway.

[AdamB]

vt, welcome to the EROEI club Nice to have you along buddy.

Let's share a cold one.

There is a huge difference between understanding EROEI and mistakenly believing that it is already shutting down the oil industry.
Having a cold one right now as I type this.

Me too. Two Coronas and a Walther P22 on my gopher patrol.

Cheers

No harpoons to provide more excellent sea mammal carcasses as back drops to victory over sea mammals pix? It seems a bit anti-climatic, to create some minor dead land varmints to celebrate about.

[donstewart]

Art Berman and SRS Rocco
Art Berman's article can be found here at Peak Oil. The oil industry globally is in deep trouble. SRS Rocco weighs in at:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-2 ... old-dollar

A quote:
'People need to realize the U.S. Dollar's value is backed by U.S. debt, which is being propped up by burning energy. Thus, ENERGY = MONEY. The huge increase in U.S. and Global Debt means the quality of energy that runs everything is rapidly declining. Which means, the more debt that is added, the lower interest rates have to go. It is a one way street.

Analysts who think interest rates need to normalize to a much higher level, have no idea about ENERGY.... ZIP, NADDA, ZILCH. They look at the markets as if the ENERGY TOOTH FAIRIES run everything. There are only a small handful of analysts who understand the energy dynamics. The rest are the blind leading the blind.'

Steve is saying pretty much what I said about the ETP Model: It predicts a collapse. Steve's take is pretty conventional...collapses lead to the disappearance of money...as in 1929 to 1932 in the US. When money disappears there is deflation. The price of oil will fall. ON THE OTHER HAND, suppose Donald Trump decides to copy Maduro in Venezuela. Then money printing can increase the price of everything to ridiculous levels...but people still won't have enough to buy bread and milk. The point is that a collapse changes all the rules, and the action of governments or war lords take precedence over Robert's Rules of Order.

Don Stewart

[AdamB]

It's sustainable permaculture at work.

There is no "sustainable" without providing a time frame. Humans are wonderfully sustainable right now, consuming everything in sight, for at least a few decades without changing a thing they do. Now, within a century? Could be different answer. Permaculture is great within a small time frame, that of a human generation perhaps? But ultimately irrelevant when the planet is incinerated by the sun.

One of those tricky words, like "conventional" in the oil and gas business.

(no idea about the sea mammals. You need to refresh that meme, Adamtheintern lol)

I provide the pic of celebratory humans to all who ask, a smiling happy woman flashing the V for victory sign, her foot on the conquered sea mammal, dead under her foot. Apparently quite happy at helping conquer the natural world for her species.