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Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 23:27:59

Hey Adam, can you blah blah blah that again? In plain Swahili?
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 09:27:37

pstarr wrote:Hey Adam, can you blah blah blah that again? In plain Swahili?


Sleep off the whatever your favorite brand of self-medication is, and reread afterwards. You might have to sound out some words and use a dictionary here or there, but you'll get it once sobered up.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 14:36:33

I wonder if there's a special chapter of Gamblers Anonymous for folks who play the oil futures market? LOL:

Hedge Funds Get Bullish Again On Oil (Third Time Lucky)

(Reuters) - Hedge funds and other money managers are becoming bullish again about oil prices, for the third time this year, as investors conclude the market is showing clear signs of rebalancing. Hedge funds raised their combined net long position across the five major futures and options contracts linked to petroleum prices by 135 million barrels in the week to Aug. 1. The combined weekly increase in net long positions across Brent, WTI, U.S. gasoline and U.S. heating oil was the largest since Dec. 6, immediately after OPEC announced it was cutting production.

For the first time in months, the increase in the net long position was driven primarily by the creation of new long positions rather than covering of old short ones. Hedge funds raised their combined long position across the five major contracts by 95 million barrels to 951 million barrels, the highest level since April 18. Fund managers cut their combined short position across the five contracts by 40 million barrels to 239 million barrels, which was the lowest level mid-April.

Optimism Again - The same pattern of new long building and continued short covering was apparent across all the individual crude and fuel contracts. TheHedge funds raised their combined net long position in ICE Brent and NYMEX and ICE WTI by 99 million barrels to 649 million barrels. Long positions were raised by 70 million barrels while short positions were trimmed by 30 million, according to regulatory and exchange data.

Fund managers have boosted their net long position by more than 290 million barrels since the end of June to the highest level for more than three months. Funds now hold almost 4.5 long futures and options positions in Brent and WTI for every short position, up from a recent low of 1.95 at the end of June. Fund managers have also built up a large net long position in U.S. gasoline, a smaller one in U.S. heating oil, and a record net long position in European gasoil.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby dirtyharry » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 15:09:18

Some guys never learn . Already two major funds which were long oil are six feet under and yet these guys do not stop . I am 100% in agreement with RM that these guys have never seen a real oil well . Matter of fact they would not know the difference between an oil well and a water well
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 15:17:22

Wait a minute! Hang on for just one second there you Doomer Gloomers :(

We are in a global expansion. Long is Right. The market is rebalancing. It's underbalanced now. Folks are shopping again. The Shale GUSHES (well okay. It leaks). There is oil under those Pretty English Cottages to be sucked. There's oil in Vaca. Doom is Done. Let's shop. Let's E&P!
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 15:38:45

ROCKMAN wrote:I wonder if there's a special chapter of Gamblers Anonymous for folks who play the oil futures market? LOL:

There's money to be made over time, if it's done right. (I prefer diversified oil stocks in top companies or mutual funds to oil futures, but the principle is roughly the same).

One can diversify one's investments. One doesn't have to take huge positions and play all-or-nothing.

Near the peak of the summer 2008 spike, I got lucky (and maybe a tiny bit smart) and sold two thirds of the natural resource mutual fund holdings I'd been patiently buying every month for 15+ years. (Wasn't smart/brave enough to sell all of it, though I was tempted. FIgured if I did, oil would go to $300).

Then in early 2009, I gleefully bought it back -- for about a third the price I sold it.

And have slowly been buying since. I like the prices now better than I did in 2010-2014. And if it all goes to zero down the road on the back of solar/wind/fusion, etc? Well, that's annoying, but those are the risks you take if you invest in a specific market sector.

To me it's the hedge funds (and especially those that invest in them) that are really crazy. Leverage to the hilt, boom and bust, all for huge fees. AND STILL, PEOPLE FLOCK TO INVEST IN THEM -- EVEN WITH THE SAME MANAGERS THAT RECENTLY BLEW UP SUCH FUNDS!!

Of course, people keep electing the same failed, lying politicans, so I suppose people are just generally stupid.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 15:48:39

BP pays me 6.75% dividend a year to hold their stock until oil prices goes up. I'm not unhappy helping them out with that. ;) Actually, I'm ahead on their stock price but don't intend to sell for now. XOM is the one that is hurting me. Stock price just won't budge for me. Except downwards :(
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 18:48:46

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:I wonder if there's a special chapter of Gamblers Anonymous for folks who play the oil futures market? LOL:

There's money to be made over time, if it's done right. (I prefer diversified oil stocks in top companies or mutual funds to oil futures, but the principle is roughly the same).

One can diversify one's investments. One doesn't have to take huge positions and play all-or-nothing.

Near the peak of the summer 2008 spike, I got lucky (and maybe a tiny bit smart) and sold two thirds of the natural resource mutual fund holdings I'd been patiently buying every month for 15+ years. (Wasn't smart/brave enough to sell all of it, though I was tempted. FIgured if I did, oil would go to $300).

Then in early 2009, I gleefully bought it back -- for about a third the price I sold it.

And have slowly been buying since. I like the prices now better than I did in 2010-2014. And if it all goes to zero down the road on the back of solar/wind/fusion, etc? Well, that's annoying, but those are the risks you take if you invest in a specific market sector.

To me it's the hedge funds (and especially those that invest in them) that are really crazy. Leverage to the hilt, boom and bust, all for huge fees. AND STILL, PEOPLE FLOCK TO INVEST IN THEM -- EVEN WITH THE SAME MANAGERS THAT RECENTLY BLEW UP SUCH FUNDS!!

Of course, people keep electing the same failed, lying politicans, so I suppose people are just generally stupid.


The catch is that solar/wind/fusion have low energy returns and quantities. In which case, all will certainly go to zero, and the road will involve limits to growth.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 08 Aug 2017, 09:26:00

Outcast - "There's money to be made over time, if it's done right." Of course there is. Just follow the obvious plan: buy low...sell high. Just that simple, eh? LOL.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Aug 2017, 12:27:42

ralfy wrote:The catch is that solar/wind/fusion have low energy returns and quantities. In which case, all will certainly go to zero, and the road will involve limits to growth.

Hey, if we get fusion and adopt green energy rapidly and cut GHG emissions tremendously and greatly mitigate AGW by, say, 2040 or even 2050, no one will be happier than me.

And if this happens and fossil fuels generally go the way coal seems to be trendng in the US, and that has consequences for energy investments, fine with me too.

As I mentioned earlier, that's why investors with prudence use diversification. (It's hard to make predictions when you're talking about the future). :lol:

Look, I'd like to see a $20 a POUND of CO2 AGW tax, which is close to two orders of magnitude more than the vast majority of liberal politicians are proposing. (After all, it's hard to be re-elected if you anger your base over something they SAY is critical (until it costs them money or precious lifestyle amenities)).

So you're going to have a lot of trouble upsetting me on the proposal of having FF burning and its investments fall rapidly to zero. In the real world, I just see that as highly unlikely, which is why I think a HUGE AGW CO2 tax (phased in over a decade to allow people to adapt) is the way to go.

And I know, I'm a minority of roughly one. (There may be one other AGW alarmist out waving a sign somewhere who would agree. Maybe). :)
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 08 Aug 2017, 13:47:16

Outcast - "...I'd like to see a $20 a POUND of CO2 AGW tax, which is close to two orders of magnitude more than the vast majority of liberal politicians are proposing." And there's the big hurdle, eh? If the tax is charged across the board to all industries don't you think much, if not most, will be passed on to the public? After all, collectively the fossil fuel consumers do DIRECTLY PRODUCE the vast majority of GHG especially if you include the utilities that provide them with electricity.

How can any reduction plan not impact the public/consumers much more then any other sector? And what politician, conservative or liberal, will want to jump in front of the MSM cameras and take the credit for increasing the cost of maintaining the lifestyles of those folks?

So many folks preaching CC and GHG reduction ignore the unavoidable fact: the public (who are the voters) are the PRIMARY CAUSE of the problem. It's not the petroleum industry, the coal burning utilities, the govts or any other group...it's the ff consumers. And if their activities aren't significantly impacted little will change with respect to the global environment.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 08 Aug 2017, 22:19:20

ROCKMAN wrote:So many folks preaching CC and GHG reduction ignore the unavoidable fact: the public (who are the voters) are the PRIMARY CAUSE of the problem. It's not the petroleum industry, the coal burning utilities, the govts or any other group...it's the ff consumers. And if their activities aren't significantly impacted little will change with respect to the global environment.


How convenient for a man who derives his income from fossil fuels. How could we expect your stance to be any different if you expect to be able to sleep well at night?

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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Wed 09 Aug 2017, 06:35:56

We should by-pass the producer of fossil fuels and go right to the consumer. Send him a bill of a few thousand dollars every January, depending on his carbon footprint, and throw him in jail if he can't pay it. That should be real popular and I can't see why anyone wouldn't support this. ;)
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 09 Aug 2017, 07:35:38

70 - How convenient for a man who derives his lifestyle by being part of the group that DIRECTLY PRODUCES the vast majority of GHG by consuming fossil fuels. How could we expect your stance to be any different if you expect to be able to sleep well at night?

BTW thanks from the rest of the oil patch for your continued financial support. Without your insistence for our efforts we wouldn't exist. Keep trying, buddy. Maybe you'll eventually convince someone you're the solution and not the problem. LOL.

Perhaps your next cause will be blaming the food producers for the county's obesity problem. It certainly isn't a result of our gluttonous eating habits similar to our fossil fuel gluttony. But I'm sure you can justify every Btu you consume just as every tubby can justify eating that last bag of potato chips. LOL.

And yes: I am proud of my tiny contribution to helping our economy grow. And also a tad pissed off with our ff consumers for utilizing our efforts for so much frivolous consumption. But I'm sure you never used more the needed to satisfy your bare necessities. LOL.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 09 Aug 2017, 07:52:06

Cog - "We should by-pass the producer of fossil fuels and go right to the consumer.". Not really necessary as long as such efforts are done across the board. Just like raising motor fuel taxes. They won't be paid by ExxonMobil et al: they'll be passed on to the consumers.

Which is how it should be as I just explained to 70. Which is also why our taxes are so much lower then in Europe: our consumers DEMAND cheaper motor fuel from the govt while financially supporting the petroleum industry to produce as much as possible.

As Pogo said long ago: " We have met the enemy...and he is US." IOW the US ff consumers.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 09 Aug 2017, 21:10:26

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
ralfy wrote:The catch is that solar/wind/fusion have low energy returns and quantities. In which case, all will certainly go to zero, and the road will involve limits to growth.

Hey, if we get fusion and adopt green energy rapidly and cut GHG emissions tremendously and greatly mitigate AGW by, say, 2040 or even 2050, no one will be happier than me.

And if this happens and fossil fuels generally go the way coal seems to be trendng in the US, and that has consequences for energy investments, fine with me too.

As I mentioned earlier, that's why investors with prudence use diversification. (It's hard to make predictions when you're talking about the future). :lol:

Look, I'd like to see a $20 a POUND of CO2 AGW tax, which is close to two orders of magnitude more than the vast majority of liberal politicians are proposing. (After all, it's hard to be re-elected if you anger your base over something they SAY is critical (until it costs them money or precious lifestyle amenities)).

So you're going to have a lot of trouble upsetting me on the proposal of having FF burning and its investments fall rapidly to zero. In the real world, I just see that as highly unlikely, which is why I think a HUGE AGW CO2 tax (phased in over a decade to allow people to adapt) is the way to go.

And I know, I'm a minority of roughly one. (There may be one other AGW alarmist out waving a sign somewhere who would agree. Maybe). :)


"If".
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 14:10:50

AdamB wrote:you'll get it once sobered up.


I doubt it.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 15:52:16

asg70 wrote:
AdamB wrote:you'll get it once sobered up.


I doubt it.


You might be right. "Getting" some intellectual concept just isn't in his nature. But he can be counted on just like some ISIS member to BELIEVE!!!!
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 17:55:02

To paraphrase Outcast: "if" fusion, "if" anthracite coal, "if" diversification, "if" AGW tax, "if" runaway GW . . . then peak oil doesn't really matter and we can all go back to BAU and the serious business of complaining about those goddamn peakers :-x lol
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 18:41:35

pstarr wrote:To paraphrase Outcast: "if" fusion, "if" anthracite coal, "if" diversification, "if" AGW tax, "if" runaway GW . . . then peak oil doesn't really matter and we can all go back to BAU and the serious business of complaining about those goddamn peakers :-x lol


Peak oil happened a decade ago, according to you. Has it mattered to you in the least? As a consumer, I am happy to enjoy real gasoline prices same as the early 1970's. Just like you. I've got no beef with peakers, any more than I do Christians or Muslims. Everyone is allowed their belief system, even peakers.
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