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Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 25 May 2017, 20:58:34

Don - "I wonder if that intention has anything to do with the Tories just released platform." I wouldn't make a guess. First, I don't follow their politics very closely. Second, politicians campaign on improving X, Y and Z when in reality they have little control over the dynamics.

Mr. Ratcliffe appears to be an opportunist. And I don't mean that in a bad way. And understand: he's not getting into developing oil/NG assets but gathering and transporting those of other companies. Generally not a business the large companies care to be involved with especially when the system is shrinking. Additionally selling off such assets can help mend the balance sheets of those public companies damaged by the oil price decline.

In a way similar to an investment company that buys a lot of foreclosed homes on the cheap during a real estate bust. The mortgage companies don't like to hold onto such properties any longer then they have to.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 25 May 2017, 21:13:04

The dynamic should always include realities such as oil discoveries dropping across several decades:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... fall-ahead

and oil production per person peaking decades ago:

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/201 ... k-oil.html

It's only by increasing both not only for oil but for various resources do those billions of dollars gain in value and a world of house-flipping and funny money creation becomes sustainable.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 15:59:15

Old article yet thus more relevant
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/ope ... ep_id:3650
Opec believed to overstate oil reserves by 70%
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 16:21:02

onlooker wrote:Old article yet thus more relevant
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/ope ... ep_id:3650
Opec believed to overstate oil reserves by 70%


5 year old articles because....the glut and abundance since then have silenced these kind of articles? I did go through it, and interestingly, just like with peak oilers, the analyst couldn't be bothered to collect the information from IHS or Wood-Mac or Rystad...nope...just another believer that the publicly stated numbers are meaningful. You wouldn't happen to know why in the world anyone uses those numbers, would you? Political analysis, sure, maybe because they can't afford the real information, but why do you think people fall for such superficial blather?
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 22:32:30

AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:Old article yet thus more relevant
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/ope ... ep_id:3650
Opec believed to overstate oil reserves by 70%


5 year old articles because....the glut and abundance since then have silenced these kind of articles? I did go through it, and interestingly, just like with peak oilers, the analyst couldn't be bothered to collect the information from IHS or Wood-Mac or Rystad...nope...just another believer that the publicly stated numbers are meaningful. You wouldn't happen to know why in the world anyone uses those numbers, would you? Political analysis, sure, maybe because they can't afford the real information, but why do you think people fall for such superficial blather?

Saudi Arabia in particular is desperate to offset the damage of low prices on their economy from its recent $100 billion CAPEX expenditure for the Manifa, Khurais and Shaybah expansions. Nor has the ongoing $50 billion Ghawar project managed to offset continued reserve declines.
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The Islamist Oil Kingdom is broke
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 18:44:06

pstarr wrote:The Islamist Oil Kingdom is broke


Could be. Another consequence of peak oil...millions of barrels of new supply driving the price down, consumers celebrating copious abundance and real fuel prices more similar to the early 1970's. Aren't you glad you can support the hydrocarbon industry by using more fuel for less money than you have since you smoked your way out of the Stoner complex?
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 19:20:56

AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:The Islamist Oil Kingdom is broke


Could be. Another consequence of peak oil...millions of barrels of new supply driving the price down, consumers celebrating copious abundance and real fuel prices more similar to the early 1970's. Aren't you glad you can support the hydrocarbon industry by using more fuel for less money than you have since you smoked your way out of the Stoner complex?

Try to respond intelligently to the impossible OPEC reserve additions in 1984. And after than, you might want to explain SA's broken promises and it phony production cut last year.
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*right click image to see how Saudia went all out with a last-gasp oil spluge before it continued on its relentless decline

Adam, so what's with your anti-drug crusade? Have they cut back the ritalin? You kids needs to head to the streets lol
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 10:48:44

pstarr wrote:Adam, so what's with your anti-drug crusade?


I've got no problems with drugs, I use Advil everytime my trick ankle kicks up. Now, people who self medicate with whatever they can get their hands on to escape reality and whatnot...well...that is something else. Boozers, dopers, stoners, between crashing their cars into innocent folks, killing each other over their stashes, or killing others who just happen to wander into their illegal public land operations, there isn't much about them to like. I had one in the family once, it was enough, there are still bullet holes in the mantle from that drunken episode.

pstarr wrote:Have they cut back the ritalin?


Don't know. My kids never needed it, and no teacher ever recommended it. Did yours use ritalin?

pstarr wrote:You kids needs to head to the streets lol


So are you loaded right now? You appear to have 2 distinct posting styles, one of which posts honest bait for trolling, but does so in a generally lucid manner. The other can't spell, has bad grammar, isn't capable of sustaining any thought (illogical, troll bait or other) and appears to be...vapid?

Any chance you can let the coherent pstarr posting/trolling behavior, rather than the other one?
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 12:06:41

Adam, this is not a personality review or a grammar lesson.

Tell me about Saudia Arabia's head fake. SA raised production to a dangerous level (probably incurring water intrusion), just so it could immediately reduce production and fake out you and the clueless MSM with a so-called production cut. Laughable
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 14:01:27

pstarr wrote:Tell me about Saudia Arabia's head fake.


What about it? Are you claiming that the Saudi's only have told the truth in the past, and this time they lied? Or did your parents not teach you even the most basic axioms of human behavior, that being to watch what folks do, and not what they say? Show me the law that requires the Saudi's to tell the truth. Because if there isn't one, then only a fool would assume they are always required to tell it.

Which explains why you want to discuss it I suppose.

pstarr wrote:SA raised production to a dangerous level (probably incurring water intrusion), just so it could immediately reduce production and fake out you and the clueless MSM with a so-called production cut. Laughable


You don't know any more about oil field water handling than Simmons did. Or Shorty. And have just proven you'll fall for anything someone tells you, or puts in the paper. Do some thinking for yourself already, and stop proving with nearly every post how gullible you are. Try and be an exception to what comes out of the Stoner Instructional Complex, and not part of the rule.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 14:39:05

Oilpro 2016: Is Saudi's Ghawar Field Beginning To Have Serious Water Issues?
Back of the envelope calculations suggest an OIIP of 170 Bbbls of which some 80 Bbbls have been produced. So some scope is left. One wonders what kind of recovery factor can be achieved in a reservoir with max 20% porosity but permeabilities in the 100 mD range (recovery factor of 60 to 70%?). Oil density 32 to 34 degrees API. Implies that some 20 to 40 Bbbls can be considered as remaining reserves, but increasingly difficult and costly to produce.

20 Bbbls of high-hanging very expensive fruit. Not near the reserves the MSM and the Saudi Sell-Off IPO claims.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 15:06:11

pstarr wrote:Oilpro 2016: Is Saudi's Ghawar Field Beginning To Have Serious Water Issues?
Back of the envelope calculations suggest an OIIP of 170 Bbbls of which some 80 Bbbls have been produced. So some scope is left. One wonders what kind of recovery factor can be achieved in a reservoir with max 20% porosity but permeabilities in the 100 mD range (recovery factor of 60 to 70%?). Oil density 32 to 34 degrees API. Implies that some 20 to 40 Bbbls can be considered as remaining reserves, but increasingly difficult and costly to produce.

20 Bbbls of high-hanging very expensive fruit. Not near the reserves the MSM and the Saudi Sell-Off IPO claims.


So you can cut and paste. I know, I mention it all the time, you appear to use it as an excuse to not think about these issues.

Let us know when Ghawar looks like Wilmington genius. And thanks for referencing something that says that estimates of recoverable are low, by a bunch, and the USGS is right to list reserve growth in existing fields as perhaps the largest future resource we have in terms of "new" oil. Oh yes, and you managed to validate Nansen Saleri as well. You did your good deed for the day pstarr, proving that these folks are right and peakers are...well...cutters and pasters.

https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs ... saleri.pdf
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 15:13:42

Your point: USGS hacks vs. oil pros?
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 15:40:29

USGS hacks vs. oil pros?


The USGS would be right on target: if oil was $150 a barrel?
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 16:30:35

20 Bbbls of high-hanging very expensive fruit. Not near the reserves the MSM and the Saudi Sell-Off IPO claims.


this is just Ghawar, not all of SA. But 20 is low.
And once again for hopefully the final time the Saudi reserves have been accredited now by both DeGolyer and MacNaughton and Gaffney Cline and Assoc. two of the largest firms that perform reserve audits as a main part of their business. They are on record as saying their numbers correspond with those indicated by Aramco. And no they aren't going to make this up simply because by law they are required to sign off on reserve audits and are legally responsible for that assessment. As well given both firms count on audits as part of their business there is no way in the world they would risk bad press for a few tens of thousands of dollars.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 17:28:35

pstarr wrote:Your point: USGS hacks vs. oil pros?


There are quite a few geologists who work within the energy resource science centers, east coast, west coast and in the rockies. I'm guessing any one of them knows more about..anything really, then you do. Never met a one who graduated from The Stoner Instructional Complex, and that's for starters. But if there is one thing I know about the way they work, it is heavy on geology, and they take their time and get it right. Makes them exactly the opposite of peakers, don't it?
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 17:30:50

shortonoil wrote:
USGS hacks vs. oil pros?


The USGS would be right on target: if oil was $150 a barrel?


The USGS uses an economic snapshot caveat with most of their oil and gas work, unless it was authored by Emil Attanasi.
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 18:43:51

shortonoil wrote:
USGS hacks vs. oil pros?


The USGS would be right on target: if oil was $150 a barrel?

Point: USGS reserve measures are a function of price. So Uranus methane at $1 trillion/BOE would be also be available for Adam's Prius. Likewise earthly pre-salt, Orinocco extra heavy, Green Mountain shale and the couple of thousand barrels buried deep beneath Mount Katahdin in Maine would be there for the taking.

but no :cry: 8)
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 18:59:31

The USGS uses an economic snapshot caveat with most of their oil and gas work, unless it was authored by Emil Attanasi.


not true. Although USGS reports on reserves they also report "technically recoverable reserves" which is akin to what the industry calls Resources. These values do not have a price of oil attached to them but rather a snapshot of what at any given time technology would allow to be recovered (i.e. they would include all of the shales but not methane from hydrates etc.).
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Re: Tremendous Oil Shortage is Looming Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 23:11:58

rockdoc123 wrote:
The USGS uses an economic snapshot caveat with most of their oil and gas work, unless it was authored by Emil Attanasi.


not true. Although USGS reports on reserves they also report "technically recoverable reserves" which is akin to what the industry calls Resources.


Never seen a USGS reserve report myself. Do you have a reference? And sure, their TRR is similar to industry resources. And Dr. Attanasai's work stands on its own, as far as his economic assumptions and whatnot.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1103/

rockdoc123 wrote:These values do not have a price of oil attached to them but rather a snapshot of what at any given time technology would allow to be recovered (i.e. they would include all of the shales but not methane from hydrates etc.).


Sure. Current economics dictates current industry practice (technology) and we end up with a TRR estimate based on that. The EIA has published on just this sort of effect, I've listed the reference before.

I've also seen a reference to the USGS in their continuous assessments use the term "undrilled", as opposed to "undiscovered", an interesting distinction in its own right.
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