[AdamB]

Which is why Mr. Hill keeps talking about reserve replacement.

Don Stewart

Talking about a topic is good, and the number of reserve reports or resource estimates he has hung his professional hat on over the past couple decades would be how many...exactly?

[AdamB]

@asg70
'price goes up...endless circles'
We go around in endless circles because the ETP model is about thermodynamics, while many critics want to talk as if the economy is an exercise in money.

Don Stewart

And the ETP folks want to pretend that oil production isn't about money.

[AdamB]

The term unconventional reservoir has had a number of "flexible" definitions. This poster presented at an AAPG annual convention summarized the issues:

Cander, H, 2012. What are unconventional resources? A simple definition using viscosity and permeability. Search and Discovery Article #80217.

Flexible indeed. Geology I understand, so porosity/permeability arguments work far better than whatever a service company wants to say...today. Viscosity is a fluid characteristic, as opposed to a rock property. So even here, folks have to reach for something else besides the geology, and thus the problem.

[AdamB]

@AdamB
Incremental improvements such as streamlining trucks and perhaps working on the backhaul issue, but nothing dramatic so far as I know.

Most mass transport issues devolve down to the last mile issue. And these might not be in your neighborhood, but after the delivery folks came the garbage trucks, powered by the same thing, instead of crude based fuels.

And as we know, moving people around is not only easy, but my wife is collecting free fuel for her crude oil free commuting transport. And that Hirsch report from 2005 or so? He claimed that 1/2 of American personal transport was discretionary, so guess what? If people weren't so busy enjoying cheap crude oil based fuels, we could stop importing oil, to join of export business of coal and..coming to a LNG facility near you soon...natural gas.

The question of whether oil has passed its half-way point, as Mr. Hill maintains, is just as relevant as it ever was.

The answer is easy. We haven't. Anyone who says otherwise just isn't familiar with the research into resource volumes and might not have access to the measures of oil volumes from the big commercial databases. Even the publicly available information.

Whether light, tight oil is a thermodynamically suited fuel for carrying payloads has been a subject of dispute here.

Don Stewart

There is no dispute. Light, tight oil can make wonderful fuels like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel all day long, and twice on Sundays. Can do the same thing with natural gas.

[AdamB]

Yes Don. The Hirsh report was funded in part by the US Government. It went unread.

No it didn't. But peakers turned it into a conspiracy because, well, that fit their meme of the day.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2005/07/30/ ... ch-report/

[onlooker]

What conspiracy?

Evidently the US Department of Energy is interested enough in the Peak-Oil debate to commission a report on the subject. Released in February this year by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and titled “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management,” the report examines the likely consequences of the impending global peak.

We just saw this:
The report’s authors dismiss these claims. Price signals warn only of immediate scarcity; however, the mitigation efforts needed in order to prepare for the global oil production peak must be undertaken many years in advance of the event.
Look at the recent ratio of US energy production still tilted overwhelmingly towards fossil fuels. Your happy motoring is continuing apace depletion. I see no vast fleet of EV's on the road. tick tock tick tock

[asg70]

don't you tire of making a complete @ss of yourself? Is everything a selfie with you? Is there a world outside your own juvenile mental playground lol Just sayin'

Look. The Tesla Semi will be announced in September. Regardless of the chatter on Twitter, he's DOING SOMETHING. What are you doing besides trolling this forum?

Oh, by the way....

FLAGGED

[asg70]

I see no vast fleet of EV's on the road. tick tock tick tock

The fact that they're on their way without price-pressures is significant. I'd say the "tick tock tick tock" is rather faint during a glut.

[creedoninmo]

@ Rockman, I hate to put up good information on this site because I'm beginning to question the knowledge of those on this site. Short can chime in if he is around. The ETP model as I understand it only uses the Well depth, water cut and heat loss from wells world wide and then takes an average of that data to plug into their formulas. I have not worked out the math myself, but he obviously comes up with a percent depletion on a world wide basis that is then plugged into the maximum price function. If no one on this site really even understands what they are arguing about, what is the point. These formulas are taken from petroleum industry text books. Mr. Hill is after all an engineer.

[ROCKMAN]

creed - "The ETP uses the Well depth, water cut and heat loss from wells world wide and then takes an average of that data to plug into their formulas."

That data base does not exist. In fact that data base doesn't even exist for a single country in Texas. Thus no global average could be calculated.

Anything else you care to contribute to the discussion?

[AdamB]

What conspiracy?

Evidently the US Department of Energy is interested enough in the Peak-Oil debate to commission a report on the subject. Released in February this year by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and titled “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management,” the report examines the likely consequences of the impending global peak.

We just saw this:
The report’s authors dismiss these claims. Price signals warn only of immediate scarcity; however, the mitigation efforts needed in order to prepare for the global oil production peak must be undertaken many years in advance of the event.
Look at the recent ratio of US energy production still tilted overwhelmingly towards fossil fuels. Your happy motoring is continuing apace depletion. I see no vast fleet of EV's on the road. tick tock tick tock

You need to learn more about market saturation curves. You might not see a fleet, but that depends on where you live. In Texas, the wife's gas/electric stands out like a sore thumb, where we live there are as many BMW's plugged in at the free charging stations as there are Leafs and Volts. There are 2 in my immediate family. They form lines at the local schools, dropping off their kids. I drag raced the wife's against another.

The future is here, just because it hasn't swarmed your neighborhood yet doesn't mean it isn't working its up way up that market saturation curve.

[AdamB]

@ Rockman, I hate to put up good information on this site because I'm beginning to question the knowledge of those on this site.

Disappointed in report sales generated from the effort involved? But you shouldn't worry about those without knowledge, you can just put pstarr on ignore and that should cover about 75% of your problem.

As far as your continued commentary on the ETP here rather than in the approved ETP sales thread, give it a rest.

[asg70]

It matters little if Elon has a magic truck, if there is no magic fuel in the Great Basin where rt 80 passes.

What makes you think there will never be enough electricity to push long-haul trucks through there?

The world is not static. You need only have watched the map of the Supercharger network over the last few years to see that kind of change in motion.

BTW, you do know that Tesla is going to increasingly become its own utility company and power its superchargers with SolarCity panels, right? So it's not going to be dependent on existing utilities.

[AdamB]

creed - "The ETP uses the Well depth, water cut and heat loss from wells world wide and then takes an average of that data to plug into their formulas."

That data base does not exist.

Of course it doesn't. This stuff was all obvious from the get go, why are we allowing ourselves to be baited outside of the Etp sales thread? Let them go and look for suckers there and leave the rest of the joint alone.

[AdamB]

My concerns for a post-peak EV/CNG infrastructure is sincere.

According to you, we are a decade now post peak, what we see around us IS the post peak EV/CNG infrastructure. Sprouting up like weeds it is. So what's your concern? You can't even be bothered to participate, leaving it to those of us who are already marching down the righteous path necessary.

[asg70]

PStarr, you do understand that Musk likes trying to do things previously thought impossible, like landing rockets on floating barges? He also has a plan for an electric jet. I will not expect a Tesla semi to resemble a traditional semi in any conventional sense. How about you just wait until September and find out whether it's anticlimactic or not? But the idea that a company like this will try to build a vehicle that can't exist is preposterous. Obviously they have an idea they think will work, and if it were not in some way disruptive then it would have been done already.

[ralfy]

Also, the EVs will have to be marketed to a world where most infrastructure is lacking and ave. daily income is less than $10 a day. The same banks that lend to manufacturers and consumers also want more people worldwide to borrow and spend more.

Biosphere capacity will not allow for such.