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Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 20:09:51

You two are almost twins. That's cute.

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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby seahorse3 » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 20:40:51

I've been on this board since 2004. It's always interesting to me how many people will vehemently defend that SA is the swing producer despite so much good circumstantial evidence to the contrary. Now for the "cherries" arguing we know nothing about SA production, we have not only publicly released info but also the inside info of posters here who have drilled in SA and concluded SA is at peak production. Enough said.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby John_A » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 21:23:11

seahorse3 wrote:I've been on this board since 2004. It's always interesting to me how many people will vehemently defend that SA is the swing producer despite so much good circumstantial evidence to the contrary.


Anyone can be a swing producer as long as they aren't producing flat out. Every little bit counts right? Seems like if peak oil is real, and has already happened, then SA is done. Kaput. They are producing flat out, or close to it, and from here on out it is all conservation, efficiency gains, fighting the decline, everything else. And if those turn out to be more powerful than expected tools, SA can become a swing producer again (or OPEC anyway), or suffer the price consequences.

seahorse3 wrote:Now for the "cherries" arguing we know nothing about SA production, we have not only publicly released info but also the inside info of posters here who have drilled in SA and concluded SA is at peak production. Enough said.


Really? This is excellent! Can you give me a username or something to search on? Someone who has actually seen Saudi technical data and scheduled infrastructure and production estimates is a rare find indeed!
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby seahorse3 » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 22:07:10

I could but won't. I long ago tired of reading and rehashing the same old disussions. I don't post often anymore and only popped in here today to note my thoughts on this unusual move by the IEA.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 23:35:11

seahorse3 wrote:I could but won't. I long ago tired of reading and rehashing the same old disussions. I don't post often anymore and only popped in here today to note my thoughts on this unusual move by the IEA.
Mostly same here. In all my years here this move to release the SPR is one of strangest. It comes after several years of SA's repeated assurance of additional capacity and actual failure to raise production. I do believe it signals the new regime: the downslope and inevitable decline of oil production and modern civilization. Really, really, really this time.
/sarc
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby yeahbut » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 23:41:03

pstarr wrote:You two are almost twins. That's cute.

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Yeah, sweet ain't it? Reminds me just a little, tiny bit of the tag-teaming between 'spocklives' (banned 2011-6-23) and 'hughj' (disappeared 2011-6-25 after copious posting/spamming). Just coincidence I'm sure :roll:
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 26 Jun 2011, 23:50:34

yeahbut wrote:Yeah, sweet ain't it? Reminds me just a little, tiny bit of the tag-teaming between 'spocklives' (banned 2011-6-23) and 'hughj' (disappeared 2011-6-25 after copious posting/spamming). Just coincidence I'm sure :roll:
These two feel like each other, but nothing like Spocklives==Shortonsense==Xenophobe==TheAntiDoomer==Hughj. The new guys are edgier. Nastier. More peakish also.
/sarc
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby AdTheNad » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 05:10:47

pstarr wrote:
yeahbut wrote:Yeah, sweet ain't it? Reminds me just a little, tiny bit of the tag-teaming between 'spocklives' (banned 2011-6-23) and 'hughj' (disappeared 2011-6-25 after copious posting/spamming). Just coincidence I'm sure :roll:
These two feel like each other, but nothing like Spocklives==Shortonsense==Xenophobe==TheAntiDoomer==Hughj. The new guys are edgier. Nastier. More peakish also.

Surely this is just a coincidence? I figured BSL is just a new nic for bratticus, and John_A is just a new poster - though he could be a reinvention of hughj/ Shorty. I could be wrong.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 10:31:28

AdTheNad wrote:
pstarr wrote:
yeahbut wrote:Yeah, sweet ain't it? Reminds me just a little, tiny bit of the tag-teaming between 'spocklives' (banned 2011-6-23) and 'hughj' (disappeared 2011-6-25 after copious posting/spamming). Just coincidence I'm sure :roll:
These two feel like each other, but nothing like Spocklives==Shortonsense==Xenophobe==TheAntiDoomer==Hughj. The new guys are edgier. Nastier. More peakish also.

Surely this is just a coincidence? I figured BSL is just a new nic for bratticus, and John_A is just a new poster - though he could be a reinvention of hughj/ Shorty. I could be wrong.
Of course! BSL==bratticus. And John_A==The_Entire_Gang_of_Foods. :razz:

Why did bratticus have to change names? By the way his survey of blackouts is an important contribution to Malthusian Studies and the Olduvai Gorge Theory in particular. Very robust methodology.
/sarc
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby John_A » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 15:20:04

seahorse3 wrote:I could but won't. I long ago tired of reading and rehashing the same old disussions.


That is unfortunate. Someone with detailed technical information on Saudi oil field production capabilities, oil reservoir development plans and expenditures, and willing to talk about all of this is a surprising find for anyone, but particularly a peak oil website. Can you give any search hints so that I might track them down?
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 15:23:27

The IEA has a FAQ insisting KSA is coming to the rescue PDQ - well, sorta PDQ.

For a year now we've read mainstream commentators talk about a crunch later this year, the IEA in May put consumption a speck more than 1 million barrels per day more than production. Yeah, that's about what Libya was doing - but - its' been a couple months now and there are no takers for that unmet demand.

That's pretty worrisome.

The IEA FAQ also says they will release additional reserves if needed. I've been digesting this over the weekend and have decided if the IEA releases continue for any length of time - say past Labor Day, it's going to say to me that at least for the time being, KSA is pumping full tilt for all practical purposes and we are at maximum output.

The problem for most people - and my biggest gripe about this action - will be that the market price of oil may not give a good indication that we've hit a ceiling - like it probably doing in '08. It is exactly your point seahorse that the IEA action is distorting the market and that will hide the price signal. Add in the continued slide toward recession limiting demand in the OECD countries and oil might be $80-90/bbl at the time we actually hit the ceiling! Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants?

So if the release continues into fall without significant additional exports from KSA, and the price hasn't increased to the stall level - Brent>$130 (?) or the economy already entered recession, I'm gonna call a TKO on my canary and think about preparing for bunker mode. I'm not sure how low TPTB will allow the SPR to go but once it becomes apparent the jig is up and they stop the releases (I can't see them draining it entirely) - then it will be crunch time.

That's when I'd expect the unexpected to occur..

http://www.iea.org/files/faq.asp
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby John_A » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 15:37:05

Pops wrote: Add in the continued slide toward recession limiting demand in the OECD countries and oil might be $80-90/bbl at the time we actually hit the ceiling! Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants?


Certainly would be unexpected. Peak oil was supposed to be much more interesting (or terrifying even) than $80-$90 oil. I still don't think anyone is fooled by some miniscule IEA demanded release except some head in the sand traders just looking for any means to make a buck, rather than someone who actually understands market fundamentals.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 15:41:31

Swing producer, yeah, you could look at it that way. That whackjob Michelle Bachman is tisk-tisking Obama for releasing all of the oil in the SPR - better check more headlines here...

WSJ says some tankers are in the GOM for floating storage. Arbitrage! Get your arbitrage! You had OPECcers gnashing teeth about cutting production to counterbalance the IEA. It's all pretty funny if you think about it...or not. Try having a stiff drink first.

The only way out of this mess I can see is if refining cap expands enough to handle all this heavy sour. Good luck pulling that off in the EU, and are developing nations bothering with all the added expense of hydrotreaters and cokers? Am skimming through the OMR for hints - the IEA does put out a useful publication, you know.

I remember those posters claiming to have worked for Haliburton etc - some guy with "digger" in his handle? Maybe those posts are in the big Saudi Arabia thread somewhere. But if you tally up all the production KSA has brought online in the past 6 years you begin to wonder where this gusher of oil has gone to. Haradh III? AFK? Not all of it heavy or sour, either, according to their claims. Are they just using these to give north Ghawar a break? Or compensate for its decline?

And of course, like others are pointing out, KSA had greater volumes being produced 32 years ago.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby John_A » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 15:49:13

TheDude wrote:I remember those posters claiming to have worked for Haliburton etc - some guy with "digger" in his handle? Maybe those posts are in the big Saudi Arabia thread somewhere.


Seems like that kind of insider detail should be trumpeted right from the top banner of the website if it actually has the information Seahorse3 says it does. Why would it be buried in some huge combo thread if it has the detail necessary to refute Saudi claims?

TheDude wrote: But if you tally up all the production KSA has brought online in the past 6 years you begin to wonder where this gusher of oil has gone to. Haradh III? AFK? Not all of it heavy or sour, either, according to their claims. Are they just using these to give north Ghawar a break? Or compensate for its decline?

And of course, like others are pointing out, KSA had greater volumes being produced 32 years ago.


But without the information this digger person supposedly provided, it is difficult to determine if they can do it again. Besides the obvious of course, which is that recently, they certainly have been coming close. Throw in any megaprojects on Saudi fields and who knows?
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 15:50:54

John_A wrote:Peak oil was supposed to be much more interesting (or terrifying even) than $80-$90 oil. I

It's all relative. If you're priced out of the market on the income side by losing your job or on the output side by simply not having the bucks to pay, I'd say it's probably still pretty terrifying.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 15:53:11

And of course you have to ask why the IEA didn't step in in the past when KSA needed to increase output for whatever reason - generally when stock levels were lower than now.

Also, all this talk of this being fodder for voters is pretty useless, imo - glad to not see it being bandied about here. Maybe Pres O could crow about his proactive solution in a year. Seems kind of lame as strategies go, though.

Joseph Romm is calling for draining the SPR - to keep gasoline prices low? - and move away from FFs? - whackjob? - tool? - good commentary here: Tapping the SPR: The Root of Dysfunctional Energy Policies.

"Energydigger" or whatever his name was was just another anon claiming this and that; looked plausible enough, he seemed to talk the talk. And that's that. I've read all kinds of stories told by ostensible insiders about the dirty secrets of the FF industry over the years, and none are a priori evidence of jack.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 17:39:53

The other thing I wondered about was what happens if OPEC says "hey, we're running this show!" and cuts back production to support prices - that is why they are OPEC right?
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby seahorse3 » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 18:07:04

digger wasn't just another anonymous expert posting, he actually had his own website and made his resume open, full name, history, degrees etc. He was the real deal. On all the years posting, he was the only one to back up his talk with his credentials. RGR eventually got banned for lying about his, but still pops up under different screen names.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby AdTheNad » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 18:18:30

Pops wrote:The other thing I wondered about was what happens if OPEC says "hey, we're running this show!" and cuts back production to support prices - that is why they are OPEC right?

I've wondered that, but can OPEC actually cut production? It seems like a silly question, but considering the oil price crash in 2008, it seems they couldn't cut production to stop the price falling all the way down to $40 back then. This to me indicates, at least in the short term they are locked in contracts, or it costs more to leave capital sitting there not doing anything. They can of course push back starting new wells etc in the more medium to long term.
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Re: Tipping Point - IEA replaces SA as world swing producer

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Jun 2011, 19:14:49

AdTheNad wrote:
Pops wrote:The other thing I wondered about was what happens if OPEC says "hey, we're running this show!" and cuts back production to support prices - that is why they are OPEC right?

I've wondered that, but can OPEC actually cut production? It seems like a silly question, but considering the oil price crash in 2008, it seems they couldn't cut production to stop the price falling all the way down to $40 back then. This to me indicates, at least in the short term they are locked in contracts, or it costs more to leave capital sitting there not doing anything. They can of course push back starting new wells etc in the more medium to long term.

Good points, and I have no idea.
Weren't we just talking a few days ago about KSA flooding the market in a price war to bankrupt Iran?

And now the IEA does it for them...

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