[ROCKMAN]

Pops - I think I did understand you: you feel the recent LTO production is much grander then it ever has been. Which it isn't. The I billion bbls produced by the Spraberry as of 1994 is just one example of the huge volume of LTO produced over the half century before the recent surge. IOW the chart you just posted is completely misleading: compared to the recent surge a much larger area under the curve starting in the 30's should also be colored green and labeled "LTO". Your curve specifically implies LTO production is a new phenomenon. In reality a significant portion of your blue "Remainder" is actually LTO. Just as a significant portion of your green LTO is from new wells drilled in many LTO fields originally discovered and began producing 50+ years ago.

LTO is not a new reserve category that was just discovered 10 years ago. But you don't have to take my word for it. Here's what a USGS 2012 study reported about 18 of the largest PB low permeability oil (your "LTO" as folks like to call it today) fields that were discovered between 1929 and 1950.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... yc7SvbIRVw

And being typical LTO reservoirs the survey estimated only 10% to 20% recovery of the original oil in place. And thanks to developing EOR methods between 1979 and 2004 (before the recent surge) the survey increased the future recovery by 4.7 BILLION BBLS. That's not the total...just the increase. And from LTO fields that have been producing for 66 to 86 years.

Frac'ng long horizontal wells in the Permian Basin LTO fields is a fairly new phenomenon. But producing a sh*t load of LTO in the Permian Basin ain't. If Mr. H wasn't aware of this fact he needs to check in more often with the boys at the USGS and with the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology. Both have thousands of pages of detailed reports covering the very long hjistory of US LTO production.

[Pops]

A distinction without a difference, Rock. Whether LTO grew because of price, technology or divine intervention is neither here nor there wrt Hirsch.

Hirsch called for increasing FF production to prevent peak FF production.
That happened.
Now what?

[Pops]

But back to the OP

Three strategies,
Reduce: get small, reduce your consumption, your exposure, your commute, even your income.
.
.

Actually, that covers it. The closer you can get to zero income and expenditures and still be happy the less effect PO will have on you.

If you believe your happiness is tied to making payments on a bunch of stuff I guess you need a different strategy. Or if you think that you can do just what you're doing and it's the society that should change ... then I guess you're on the wrong board, lol

[DesuMaiden]

All these strategies for mitigating peak oil might sound good on paper, but in practice, it is unlikely to work. Let's just begin with some cold, hard facts. >>>>90% of the population don't even know what peak oil is, let alone understand the real impact it will have on their lives. And even if you told them what peak oil is and the consequences, most of these people will deny and ignore your message. The average person thinks in terms of what he or she can see now, not what will most likely happen in the future. Since what they see now is business-as-usual apparently going fine, they think everything will be fine into the future. It is futile convincing your average person that we need to do something about peak oil because over 90% of people will deny peak oil since its consequences are too difficult and scary to accept. Most people would rather live in the delusional fantasy that alternative energies are supposedly going to save the day, and keep industrial civilization running and business-as-usual afloat. That's not going to happen. But you can't take their delusions away because believing the delusion that "solar, wind, nuclear fusion and free-energy will replace fossil fuels, and keep the American Dream and business-as-usual afloat. Our current way of life is totally sustainable as long as we implement the right technology in time!" is much more comforting than accepting the grim reality that "peak oil and other various environmental catastrophes will certainly bring industrial civilization to its downfall, and our current way of life cannot ever be sustainable regardless of what energy source we use".

tl;dr : Most people would rather take the blue-pill than than the red-pill in regards to the fate of humanity because the former is much more comforting to accept than the latter.

[AdamB]

what you said Pops, but with one modification: Hirsch said nothing re LTO.

Granted, he knew nothing about geology. When posters right here on this forum were talking about LTO and its potential, you can see what that means for the validity of a report. Even more interesting, in 2005 he didn't even bother to look out across Texas and see the onslaught of oil and gas that was already visible, the Barnett Shale having been developed in vertical wells for nearly a decade prior to that point, and the horizontals were just coming into play. And Elm Coulee was already 5 years old...talk about a report that stood in front of an oncoming train and couldn't even be bothered to look up and see it, before it squashed it flat.

[AdamB]

Frac'ng long horizontal wells in the Permian Basin LTO fields is a fairly new phenomenon. But producing a sh*t load of LTO in the Permian Basin ain't. If Mr. H wasn't aware of this fact he needs to check in more often with the boys at the USGS....

Chris, Lynne, Tim, or Troy?

and with the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology.

Scott, Svetlana, John or Gurcan?

You don't think Hirsch even attempted to talk to any of this group, if he couldn't even be bothered to research the new LTO and gas train that was about to run over the world in 2005 do you?

Both have thousands of pages of detailed reports covering the very long hjistory of US LTO production.

Maybe that is why the EIA didn't fall for or utilize Hirsch's report when it happened, because they often use USGS information, and I've seen Svetlana at EIA conferences, passing along her understanding and knowledge to their analysts as well. Stick with the real experts it would seem.