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Things are starting to heat up

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

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Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby Scooter_Rider » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 14:57:38

If this isn't a sign of things to come, then I don't know what is: 8O

From MSN (2/22/05):

Oil prices are surging, the U.S. dollar is plunging, and stocks
are struggling.


South Korea started the dollar selling. The country's central bank said it will diversify its holdings away from the dollar


http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNB ... 110182.asp

As I type this, oil is at $51.10 per barrel, the Dow is down -159.82,
and the US dollar has fallen more than 1%. All in one day. 8O

The detrimental effects of higher energy prices and a massive US
trade deficit are forming right in front of eye ours. Bye bye US
economy. We are witnessing history here. Just hope we can all live
to tell our grandchildren about it.
Last edited by Scooter_Rider on Tue 22 Feb 2005, 15:36:20, edited 3 times in total.
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Unread postby SD_Scott » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 15:28:01

I'm thinking about quiting my job and moving back to the midwest.

This blows man!!!! 8O
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Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 16:21:43

If we have a couple more weeks like this, the US (and the world) are heading straight for a recession.

That might be a good thing. It would purge the system of rampant overuse of credit and would slow oil demand, pushing the peak out a couple of years. As long as you didn't lose your job, you might have a few more years to prepare.
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Unread postby SD_Scott » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 16:33:01

Tyler_JC wrote:If we have a couple more weeks like this, the US (and the world) are heading straight for a recession.


I thought we were in a recession. :-D
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Unread postby Theo » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 16:34:12

I know people have talked in the past about some smaller country deciding to get out of the dollar which causes a run and forces the bigger holders of US debt to sell. I wonder if South Korea could be that country?
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Unread postby Scooter_Rider » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 16:37:30

Theo wrote:I know people have talked in the past about some smaller country deciding to get out of the dollar which causes a run and forces the bigger holders of US debt to sell. I wonder if South Korea could be that country?


If other countries follow S. Korea's lead, then the US dollar would become nearly worthless. :shock:
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Unread postby KiddieKorral » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 16:38:11

Crap. The more you think about that story, the bleaker it sounds.
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Unread postby lotrfan55345 » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 16:40:21

And the South Koreans are such American supporters too... I wonder how not-so-American friendly countries like China will react to this.
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Unread postby Scooter_Rider » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 16:43:54

US DOW market is now down -174.02

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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 16:56:08

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Unread postby Scooter_Rider » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 17:01:57

BabyPeanut wrote:Vision of the future:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/200 ... usat_x.htm


Yes indeed. A true vision of our very near future. But imagine that situation across the entire US. Talk about chaos. That day is coming. 8O
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Unread postby Barbara » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 17:27:00

South Korea is NOT a small country. It's one of the main goods producers in the world. Think of it as the II millennium Japan.
And about worryings: I have my own canary in the mineshaft. Look at the "who"s online" on the left side of our board. When it's over 200 guests, it's time to worry.

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Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 17:46:17

The $80 per barrel fallacy, which I posted here a couple of weeks ago, is being vindicated. $80/b oil would raise the US foreign trade deficit to about $850 billion per year. A completely unattainable level of debt. The US’s trading partners can not or will not finance debt of that magnitude. We have probably hit peak oil and prices have no way to go but up. The rest of the scenario is rather obvious.
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Unread postby Free » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 18:03:03

The funny - or scary - thing is that they blame the cold weather. If the market is that sensitive now there really is absolutely ZERO spare capacity left...

But don't jump to early conclusions - it already looked the same the last year - and it swung back and everything looked bright again. I think we will go through this rollercoaster ride a couple of times, only that every time the "normal" barrel price will be 5 to 10 dollars higher. So expect it to be interpreted as a "relieve signal" if the barrel price goes back between 45 and 50.
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Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 18:27:16

Spare capacity has dropped from 6mb/d in 2000 to less than 1mb/d in 2004. Spare capacity is about to go 0 b/d soon and the inelastic character of oil will take the price to about $90 real fast. At $80 or less Uncle Sam files chapter 11 with world. The American public just goes broke.
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Unread postby mgibbons19 » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 18:41:41

Each spike is interesting of course, but there should be quite a bit of bouncing around for a while. Filtering the news over the last few weeks it does seem that this year may be the year spare capacity drops to 0. 2005 could be interesting that way.
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Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 18:57:35

It might bounce for a while, or de-shrub and his fellow weasle, Sharon could decide that an imminent regime change in Iran is necessary. In that case start looking for a good place to plant this years garden. You are going to need it.
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Unread postby maverickdoc » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 19:36:13

shortonoil wrote:It might bounce for a while, or de-shrub and his fellow weasle, Sharon could decide that an imminent regime change in Iran is necessary. In that case start looking for a good place to plant this years garden. You are going to need it.


oil will shoot to $80 easy. and the dollar will fall to 1.55 per euro
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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby maverickdoc » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 21:28:02

Scooter_Rider wrote:If this isn't a sign of things to come, then I don't know what is: 8O



Oil prices are surging, the U.S. dollar is plunging, and stocks
are struggling.


South Korea started the dollar selling. The country's central bank said it will diversify its holdings away from the dollar





See look nothing is going to happen. The south Koreans said so.

Tuesday February 22, 8:47 pm ET

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded against the euro and the yen on Wednesday after South Korea signaled that plans to diversify its foreign exchange reserves were not new and did not mean it would sell the U.S. currency.


See it’s good to be a ok

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050222/markets_forex_7.html
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Unread postby Grimnir » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 02:43:17

Now Korea's saying they won't dump the dollar after all. Er...what happened?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=apFzN5jrPTQA&refer=home
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