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Things are starting to heat up

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Unread postby Scooter_Rider » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 02:56:24

Grimnir wrote:Now Korea's saying they won't dump the dollar after all. Er...what happened?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=apFzN5jrPTQA&refer=home


Not sure what happened. Maybe Bush Co. threatened to pull US troops out of S. Korea. 8) Their comforting words really don't matter much, though. These 'loaner' countries will eventually be forced to diversify away from the US dollar due to our mounting trade deficit and weakening dollar. It's only a matter of time.
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Unread postby maverickdoc » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 22:24:51

They already dumped a substantial amount. As long as oil stays high there will be tremendous pressure on others to follow. Although they will not say it out loud. Did you know the heads of central banks form Japan, Korea, china and ASEN meet today in Singapore? Did you know Japan has been a net seller of foreign currencies for the last two months?

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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 06:45:34

mgibbons19 wrote:Each spike is interesting of course, but there should be quite a bit of bouncing around for a while. Filtering the news over the last few weeks it does seem that this year may be the year spare capacity drops to 0. 2005 could be interesting that way.

The price might be bouncing around but it's going up while it is doing that. The last time oil was at $40/barrel was July 2004. Six months from now will I be writing that the last time oil was at $50/barrel was Feb 2005?
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Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 20:40:07

BabyPeanut make sure you get that post out before the lights go out!
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Unread postby mgibbons19 » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 22:23:20

BabyPeanut wrote:
mgibbons19 wrote:Each spike is interesting of course, but there should be quite a bit of bouncing around for a while. Filtering the news over the last few weeks it does seem that this year may be the year spare capacity drops to 0. 2005 could be interesting that way.

The price might be bouncing around but it's going up while it is doing that. The last time oil was at $40/barrel was July 2004. Six months from now will I be writing that the last time oil was at $50/barrel was Feb 2005?


Especially since it was about this time last year that things started to get hot quickly. One never does know.
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Unread postby gg3 » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 23:20:07

From the USA Today article cited above, re gas shortage in Phoenix:

"...with 67% of the [Phoenix area] workforce commuting alone in their cars for an average of 24.3 minutes, almost everyone is feeling the impact."

In other words, all it would take is a little car pooling and Phoenix would be fine.

But they don't, they just whine about it.

F*** 'em, I say.
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 13:58:33

shortonoil wrote: We have probably hit peak oil and prices have no way to go but up. The rest of the scenario is rather obvious.


How interesting...peak oil only causes oil prices to go but up. What a demonstration of since discredited peaker ignorance. So Shorty started off life as a project manager that won't discuss how he uses costs and revenues when evaluating projects, fell for standard stupid peak oil nonsense, reacted to being burned by fabricating some random curves (with an excellent R squared though!! :lol: :lol: ) and is now waiting around for all the exact opposite things he once proclaimed with certainty.

Shorty plays both sides of the fence, depending on which way the wind is blowing. Peak oil is here? Prices are going up!! Peak oil is here again? Prices are going down!

The only difference being...there is now something to sell...perhaps because he realized that customers are where you find them, and folks as gullible as him make great suckers?

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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby Cog » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 17:43:48

Great find and how soon it went down the memory-hole of bad predictions.
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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby creedoninmo » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 18:15:17

Adam: I have found in my life of 61 years that some of the dumbest people I know never change their minds about anything. Smart people are resilient, adjust, learn and grow wise. Most people in our world have no idea how energy effects their lives and don't want to know. The truth would scare them shitless and they don't want to go there. They don't have the courage. My guess would be that your still somewhat young and I don't know what your education, career, what books you have read are. I think that Short's maximum price function is still on target. What do you Adam B, believe the price of oil will be in 2020; go on, go out on a limb and tell me. How about 2025, 2030.
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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby creedoninmo » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 18:28:11

The Peak Oil and Message Board article on Saudia Arabia and Qatar was quite interesting. I wonder how for the U.S. will go to keep Qatar from moving away from the dollar. It seems that what they call the great game is getting closer to a decision.
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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 00:01:03

creedoninmo wrote:Adam: I have found in my life of 61 years that some of the dumbest people I know never change their minds about anything.


I agree. I call it the ignorance of certainty.

creeddoninmo wrote: Smart people are resilient, adjust, learn and grow wise.


And there are different kinds of smarts. Shorty claims to be a project manager, which implies he understands budgeting and dollars, and then uses none of this kind of information to proclaim something 180 degrees from his previous position, where he assumed that prices were causal to the doom he has been hoping for, for awhile now.

And I don't think "smart people" show up one afternoon. People learn stuff. From learning stuff they gain knowledge. After gaining more than a little knowledge, they have insight. After they have accumulated insight, they develop wisdom.

creedononimo wrote:Most people in our world have no idea how energy effects their lives and don't want to know. The truth would scare them shitless and they don't want to go there. They don't have the courage.


It isn't about courage. They don't care because they don't have to care. Those who have made it possible for them to have their lifestyles did it in such a way that they don't have to bother. And what "truth"? Malthusians screaming from the rooftops that the world is going to end isn't a truth, it is someone screaming from a rooftop. Might have value. Might not.

creedoninmo wrote:My guess would be that your still somewhat young and I don't know what your education, career, what books you have read are.


My guess is that you don't guess very well.

creedoninmo wrote: I think that Short's maximum price function is still on target.


And will continue to do so until it isn't. It is the nature of spurious relationships. You know...like bell shaped curves and oil production? :lol:

creedoninmo wrote:What do you Adam B, believe the price of oil will be in 2020; go on, go out on a limb and tell me. How about 2025, 2030.


No need. I have a better prediction than the etp, because mine has been proven true through every cycle of the oil industry since Drake drilled his first well, which means I've got the etp beat so badly it isn't even fair. I've said it before, but I'll said it again just for you. The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices. So we can all kick back now and just wait. Either I'm right, or Short is, and based on past market cycles (real energy issues, like the 1986 crash) it could take years to iron out. But like I said, I waited out bell shaped curves, I can wait out random decline equations from project managers with zero oil field experience. And better yet, who reverse course 180 degrees when the world doesn't end like they hoped!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 11:27:14

The problem with ETP is that its acolytes focus too much on price and not enough on doom. As long as prices remain low or go lower, ETPers can claim that it validates ETP, all the while ignoring that the punch-line of any doomer narrative is, well, doom. Low oil prices don't produce doom for anyone other than badly managed oil companies. Until this magical doom arrives, ETP comes across as nothing but a mental coping mechanism for disaffected peak-oilers. This will last as long as they can continue to fit data to the ETP chart.

There is already a rhetorical shift in focus away from general global doom to oil industry and petro-state doom. Now instead of empty store shelves and zombies we're supposed to worry about the balance sheets of Exxon and the stability of Venezuela and the House of Saud? If we really had followed the Hirsch report or heeded the efforts of Al Gore and 350.org wouldn't we be in the same situation eventually of, if not phasing out oil, doing our darndest to phase it out, and causing all sorts of hassles for big oil and economically monochromatic petro-states? In other words, you can't make an omelette without breaking some eggs.

So the funny thing is that peak-oilers can get so far off-track on their narratives that they can begin to fear-monger about the consequences that would have accompanied a global shift off of oil, something peakers were evangelizing we do back in the mid aughts.
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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 07:12:41

Asg, you really put your foot in your mouth with this "Low oil prices don't produce doom for anyone other than badly managed oil companies. "
First off the reason that oil prices are low IS doom. This is because not enough net energy is being distributed throughout the Economy leading to very sluggish economic performance , job losses and cashless consumers. Lending is postponing the worse of this but it cannot do so indefinitely. And all this will lead to the demise of the Oil Industry and by association a full fledged economic Depression.
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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 09:36:52

onlooker wrote:oil prices are low IS doom.


Hmm.. Doom. Present tense. All caps? I would expect zombies with that degree of emphasis, but anyway, where is this depression of which you speak? Slow growth is still growth. Hardly doom. Store shelves fully stocked. Unemployment figures at historic low levels. Gas cheap enough to facilitate happy motoring for the July 4th holidays. You're reaching.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/03/news/ec ... index.html
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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 10:34:42

creedoninmo wrote:What do you Adam B, believe the price of oil will be in 2020; go on, go out on a limb and tell me. How about 2025, 2030.


Let me go out on a limb further and suggest to you, that it does not matter what the $$/bbl is, so long as that price is determined by willing buyer/willing seller market forces.

If the price goes very high, trivial uses get trimmed (demand destruction) until an equilibrium is reached. If the price goes low, less investment in production is made and recreational uses start to recover till equilibrium. We get large swings because the factors involved have enormous inertia, it takes a while to bring new production online, it takes a while for folks to stop driving the big hummer for their morning commute, it takes a while before producing wells need expensive maintenance to continue.

This doesn't mean that peak oil isn't a thing, but rather that the market is cruel enough to be durable during this extended period of time where there is real tension between supply and demand. It flattens the top, and makes the tail extend, which is honestly... a good thing(tm).
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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 14:57:05

onlooker wrote:Asg, you really put your foot in your mouth with this "Low oil prices don't produce doom for anyone other than badly managed oil companies. "
First off the reason that oil prices are low IS doom.


That wasn't peak oil dogma back when it happened. And it wasn't what Shorty was claiming, back when peak oil happened. And those folks out buying record numbers of gas guzzlers aren't doing it because of doom.

Is there any rock you can't look under and find doom Onlooker? Do you even have the honesty to admit that you would have been BANNED from this website for suggesting that peak oil meant lower prices, and even lower prices, to the point where the consumer just couldn't STAND it anymore, and drowned in the stuff...thereby causing personal doom?

onlooker wrote:This is because not enough net energy is being distributed throughout the Economy leading to very sluggish economic performance , job losses and cashless consumers. Lending is postponing the worse of this but it cannot do so indefinitely. And all this will lead to the demise of the Oil Industry and by association a full fledged economic Depression.


So once high oil prices were going to cause this, now low ones are....tell us, do you feel the cognitive dissonance you are discussing, or do you just forget everything that doom was supposed to be once upon a time, buy into whatever the doomer porn of the day is, and forget that you once were gullible enough to go for that, and it CAN'T be related to manufacturing a new scheme that you can fall for?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby GASMON » Thu 06 Jul 2017, 05:16:40

AgentR11 wrote:Let me go out on a limb further and suggest to you, that it does not matter what the $$/bbl is, so long as that price is determined by willing buyer/willing seller market forces.

If the price goes very high, trivial uses get trimmed (demand destruction) until an equilibrium is reached. If the price goes low, less investment in production is made and recreational uses start to recover till equilibrium. We get large swings because the factors involved have enormous inertia, it takes a while to bring new production online, it takes a while for folks to stop driving the big hummer for their morning commute, it takes a while before producing wells need expensive maintenance to continue.

This doesn't mean that peak oil isn't a thing, but rather that the market is cruel enough to be durable during this extended period of time where there is real tension between supply and demand. It flattens the top, and makes the tail extend, which is honestly... a good thing(tm).


That's the most informative post I've read on this site for quite a while. Sums the complex situation up quite well.

Thanks AgentR11

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Re: Things are starting to heat up

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 06 Jul 2017, 08:11:31

AdamB wrote:you would have been BANNED from this website for suggesting that peak oil meant lower prices, and even lower prices, to the point where the consumer just couldn't STAND it anymore, and drowned in the stuff...thereby causing personal doom?
...
buy into whatever the doomer porn of the day is


Amen.

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