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There won't be a glut in US oil production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby seahorse3 » Tue 03 Jul 2012, 10:55:35

There won't be a glut in US oil production as there has been in NG production, according to Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, a major developer of the US oil shales. Here's the wiki on Hamm:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Hamm

This statement was made by Hamm during an interview on a US news show this morning called MSNBC. Since that topic has been debated here, I thought his comments were pertinent, since if anyone should know, he should know. If I can find a link to the interview later, I will post it.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby seahorse3 » Tue 03 Jul 2012, 10:59:52

Link to the Hamm interview:

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/cnbc/48057568#48057568

Statement made at 3 minutes into the interview.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby Pops » Tue 03 Jul 2012, 11:14:30

He was arguing to keep the subsidies for oil companies in place otherwise lots of the holes in the Bakken wouldn't happen because they aren't profitable. I didn't see the glut part just lots of pork-barrel for oil cos.

Bakken/pork, get it?

http://newsok.com/continental-resources ... 30/?page=1
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby seahorse3 » Tue 03 Jul 2012, 12:01:32

Pops at the 3 minute mark he says at least two times that there won't be a "glut" in oil production as there has been with NG.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 03 Jul 2012, 12:25:12

How could there be a glut in a commodity where 2/3rds is imported? If domestic supply goes up imports fall, but domestic supply would have to triple or more to eliminate the need for imports.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby Pops » Tue 03 Jul 2012, 12:51:56

seahorse3 wrote:Pops at the 3 minute mark he says at least two times that there won't be a "glut" in oil production as there has been with NG.

Not arguing horse, just saying Hamm's lobbying for pork to drill the Bakken.

Actually he's lobbying for Romney because Mit means continued pork

He says "immobile oil" is a bigger resource than the "mobile" oil we've been exploiting for the last 150 years but we need to subsidize oil companies dry holes because [my take] the economy can't afford the bakken without subsidies.

Your headline should be: "Hamm says: No pork, no Bakken!

Occidental pulled out you'll remember because it was too expensive.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby seahorse3 » Tue 03 Jul 2012, 13:58:08

Agreed Pops, but I thought his statement, said twice, that the oil shales would not bring about an oil glut illuminating. First, bc he should know as well as anyone what these plays are really capable of. So, instead of arguing they would make us energy independent, he said there would not be an oil glut. This is what lawyers call a "statement against interest" and is given, in law, 100% credibility.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 04 Jul 2012, 04:34:07

Only a fool would say the USA is going to become oil independent in this era. Post collapse is another story which nobody knows. The porking of tight oil plays is probably the least worrying thing going on in US oil politics. The influence on US international actions is far more concerning and dangerous, but what you don't know won't hurt you (until it runs you over).
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby KingM » Wed 04 Jul 2012, 10:07:37

SeaGypsy wrote:Only a fool would say the USA is going to become oil independent in this era. Post collapse is another story which nobody knows. The porking of tight oil plays is probably the least worrying thing going on in US oil politics. The influence on US international actions is far more concerning and dangerous, but what you don't know won't hurt you (until it runs you over).


It has to be cheaper to subsidize North American oil than to subsidize Middle Eastern security concerns. Having said that, there will be no such thing as oil independence on this continent until oil ceases to be a major part of the economy.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 04 Jul 2012, 16:49:39

I am glad you think the US is in the ME to 'subsidize security'.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 02 Apr 2017, 17:46:55

Well this popped up today and it makes amusing reading.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 02 Apr 2017, 17:54:40

Subjectivist wrote:Well this popped up today and it makes amusing reading.
What popped up?
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 02 Apr 2017, 20:05:19

vtsnowedin wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:Well this popped up today and it makes amusing reading.
What popped up?


This thread predicting there will never be a glut in American oil production.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 02 Apr 2017, 21:23:07

Subjectivist wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:Well this popped up today and it makes amusing reading.
What popped up?


This thread predicting there will never be a glut in American oil production.

Considering we had to import 8.2 million barrels of oil a day last week to meet demand what glut would you be talking about?
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 02 Apr 2017, 23:48:10

vtsnowedin wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:Well this popped up today and it makes amusing reading.
What popped up?


This thread predicting there will never be a glut in American oil production.

Considering we had to import 8.2 million barrels of oil a day last week to meet demand what glut would you be talking about?


The one filling up all the tanks, barrels, rail cars, bathtubs, and plastic jugs that are needed to hold all the stuff they can't find normal storage for.

And nowadays, because of what has happened with the glut, it turns out, our refineries have been importing oil..and then exporting manufactured products. Millions of barrels a day worth. We started out exporting about 1 million/day, and I believe we are at about 3 million a day now? Tough time getting the exact number, and I'm not sure what all it consists of, but as Rockman has pointed out recently, these folks do this energy stuff best. So we import it, refine it, and ship it out!!

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_e ... blpd_m.htm


And obviously this is because of the global oversupply that the US has managed to exacerbate, also in part because Americans are consuming less, we only recently got back to consumption levels of 2007 or so.

Image

Of course, US population was about 305 million, and today is about 326, so our per capita usage is still lower, and this is good. Plus back ion 2008 we didn't have electric fueled post peak oil transport to replace our nasty smelly polluting personal transport. And now we do, so somewhere in those figures is that continuing transition better transport.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby diemos » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 00:14:09

glut (n.)

definition: (producer's version) lower prices for crude oil than my cost of production.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 03:25:52

AdamB wrote:The one filling up all the tanks, barrels, rail cars, bathtubs, and plastic jugs that are needed to hold all the stuff they can't find normal storage for.
........
That would be a world oil glut not a north American one. That we are importing and storing the excess because we have the tanks and the money to do so and the fact they are keeping everything topped off shows that there is confidence that prices will rise sometime in the near future.
The re exported finished products are not hard to find and it does now amount to five million barrels a day.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_e ... blpd_a.htm
We would have to increase domestic production by 4.3 million barrels a day to be truly oil independent after you account for finished product being re exported.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sn ... _nus_w.htm
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby tita » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 06:02:19

The title of this topic doesn't make sense. Oil (and oil-base products) is a global market, while nat gas do have his regional markets (North-America, Asia, Europe). This is a question of logistics, transporting liquids vs transporting gas. There is a huge capacity to transport liquids around the world, while nat gas is constrained.

So, there is no oil glut limited to the US possible. As of the oil independence of the US, there is also not much sense, because the market is global and the US import and export oil and oil-base products. But US import more than it export, that is a fact.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 11:02:16

diemos wrote:glut (n.)

definition: (producer's version) lower prices for crude oil than my cost of production.



That isn't the definition. When this condition exists, producers plug their wells, they aren't in the business to subsidize prices lower than their costs. Ever.
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Re: There won't be a glut in US oil production

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 15:44:54

If the intention is to keep bumping old threads to highlight bad predictions, Adam and his ilk will find a rich vein to mine as well as continued resistance to having been wrong.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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