THE Yemen Thread (merged)

by **smiley** » Thu 24 Jun 2004, 09:55:01

Has Yemen peaked?link
TransGlobe Energy anounced today that they have succesfully taken a new well in production in the Tasour field in Yemen. However, according to the anouncement this well is operating with a water-cut of over 50%.

placed on production at an initial rate of approximately 6,100 barrels of oil per day with 6,600 barrels of water per day,

Production in the Tasour field started in november 2000 according to the EIA, which means that the water level in the field is rising dramatically fast.

It makes you wonder whether they are fighting an uphill battle in Yemen. Apparently the new well is only used in an attempt to offset the decline of the field.

With the addition of Tasour #12 the Tasour field is producing in excess of 21,000 Bopd (approximately 2,900 Bopd to TransGlobe). It is expected that production from the Tasour field will average approximately 18,000+ Bopd (2,485 Bopd to TransGlobe) for the remainder of 2004, which is consistent with the 2004 work plan and predicted natural declines for the field

According to BP total production from Yemen has fallen for the past two years. Hearing these kinds of stories, I think it Yemen can be safely placed in post-peak category.

by **slick50** » Thu 24 Jun 2004, 11:20:00

Modern extraction techniques has been holding the production line for some time now, but fields age sooner or later. As an example, horizontal drilling and heavy water driven extraction raised production rapidly in Oman's Yibal field, but it soon fell from 250,000 at its peak to 50,000 barrels per day. A concern is that much of the remaining oil has been bypassed, making it much harder, or impossible to extract at future dates.

See the Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle by Matthew Simmons. It's a very professional presentation. Also newsletter #39 from peakoil.net states that Oman's peak was 2001. Production will now decline by 4% per year.

How much longer till Ghawar suffers the same fate?

by **Ender** » Sat 26 Jun 2004, 20:23:08

smiley wrote:According to BP total production from Yemen has fallen for the past two years. Hearing these kinds of stories, I think it Yemen can be safely placed in post-peak category.

Yes, Yemen is clearly in terminal decline. But it was never that big a producer in the first place.
A failure to lift production from 2002 -> 2003 with no other explanation strongly suggests terminal decline. Yemen also has a R/P ratio of only 4.2, meaning either its reserves are underestimated or the decline will be quite steep.
Oman and Syria are also in terminal decline: emphasising the contraction of any ability to export oil to the five Gulf States.

by **DomusAlbion** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 11:09:26

Reuters

by **Wildwell** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 11:19:43

http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,1 ... 19,00.html

10 killed in fuel riots in Nigeria

http://www.isn.ch/news/sw/details_print.cfm?id=7199

Fuel shortage frustration behind Basra riots

Although shortages caused by different reasons!

by **agmart** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 22:06:32

Huge protests in Yemen

Sanaa, July 20 (YT & Reuters) - Observers expect massive rallies across the country after the death of at least 15 civilians in violent demonstrations mainly in the cities Sanaa, Dhamar and Dhale’. The demonstrations were caused by anger due to the government’s decision of raising the prices of petroleum directive products between 50% and 100%.

link
[quote]A tribal source in Mareb told RAY news that Obeida tribe has banned 11 oil tankers from leaving Mareb to other governorates. AL-Shabwan tribe of Obeidah are also occupying the Wadi district which overlooks the road in and out of Mareb. The source told the news service that there are news that the tribes are surrounding oil refineries as well.[/quote link

by **Badger** » Wed 20 Jul 2005, 22:19:38

similiar to the unrest in China,Bolivia,Nigeria

China was about Govt land confiscation and I think Bolivia was about Gas reserves and Nigeria is a no brainer its about oil

by **bruin** » Fri 22 Jul 2005, 19:37:59

Look out, this could be our future too. Yemen unemployment is in the 30% range. A gallion of gas costs $8 now. Riots everywhere.

by **BabyPeanut** » Fri 22 Jul 2005, 20:54:01

Now 36 dead:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle ... 707145.stm

http://www.livejournal.com/community/pe ... 27950.html

by **BabyPeanut** » Sat 23 Jul 2005, 01:16:26

http://www9.sbs.com.au/theworldnews/reg ... 2&region=5

The Yemeni cabinet announced late Tuesday it had decided to remove subsidies on fuel, nearly doubling petrol prices.

"The cabinet has reached a conclusion... To continue subsidising fuel products consumed locally would lead eventually to an increase in budget deficit... and put pressure on exchange rate and prices," a cabinet statement said.

Can't they just buy all their stuff from China? Oh wait...

by **savethehumans** » Sat 23 Jul 2005, 03:15:05

The future is now. . . .

by **BabyPeanut** » Sat 23 Jul 2005, 12:24:07

There have been fuel riots in Nigera and Iraq in 2003. Yemen is uncomfortablly close to Saudi Arabia though.

Gulf Times (link)

The Yemeni cabinet announced late Tuesday it had decided to remove subsidies on fuel, nearly doubling petrol prices from 35 riyals (32 cents) a litre to 65 while diesel jumped from 17 riyals to 45.

35:32 is 65:59.42 so about 59 cents a litre or $2.25 a gallon.

Where did "bruin" get the $8 gallon figure from?

by **DomusAlbion** » Sat 23 Jul 2005, 12:31:39

And many here on PO.COM think there can be a gradual and peaceful transition.

I don't see how that will happen.

by **MonteQuest** » Sat 23 Jul 2005, 12:37:09

"What happened today was a spontaneous reaction by the people who feel targeted in their livelihood..."

8O

by **VinceG** » Sat 23 Jul 2005, 12:53:03

Well, the only 'positive' effect of these riots is that PO finally gets the attention in main stream media it deserves...

You have to wonder though if major riots would break out in European or American cities if companies and/or governments decided to increase gasonline prices with 80%-100% in an instance...

by **BabyPeanut** » Sat 23 Jul 2005, 13:12:20

Can't find an ASPO assesment of Yemen.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/yemen.html

Yemen, a small non-OPEC oil producer, is important to world energy markets because of its oil and natural gas resources and strategic location on the Bab el-Mandab strait, one of the world's most active shipping lanes.

Yemen is a small, non-OPEC oil producer. According to Oil and Gas Journal, the country contains proven crude oil reserves of 4 billion barrels, concentrated in five areas: Marib-Jawf Block 18 (estimated 490 million barrels) in the north; Masila -Block 14 (estimated 500+ million barrels) in the south; East Shabwa - Block 10A (estimated 180 million barrels); Jannah - Block 5 (estimated 345 million barrels) and Iyad - Block 4 (estimated 135 million barrels) in central Yemen. In 2003, Yemen's crude oil output averaged 448,288 bbl/d, showing a slight increase over 2002. Recently, the government of Yemen announced a 1-million-bbl/d production target for 2006. However, according to Yemen's Petroleum Exploration and Production Authority (PEPA), average production has actually fallen in the first half of 2004 to an estimated 400,000-420,000 bbl/d, due to declining production in Masila and Marib, the country's two largest fields.

So what about depletion?

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/company/cnm31487.htm

Depletion and depreciation was $ 4,277,000 in 2002 compared to $ 2,762,000 in the same period in 2001.

BP World review for 2004 (link)

Code: Select all: 1000 barrels/day 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Yemen 346 351 357 375 380 405 450 471 461 454 429

Looks like Yemen peaked out in 2001.

by **BabyPeanut** » Sat 23 Jul 2005, 17:18:06

Riots stopped for a bit but then started again.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/ ... 80DCCA.htm

Fresh clashes have erupted between Yemeni security forces and the country's citizens protesting against fuel price rises.
Saturday 23 July 2005, 13:10 Makka Time, 10:10 GMT

Fresh clashes have erupted between Yemeni security forces and the country's citizens protesting against fuel price rises.

The latest conflict on Saturday, occurred in the southern city of al-Dhalea, Aljazeera's correspondent in Yemen reported.

This follows several days of protest since last Wednesday, which has left up to 39 people dead, according to news agencies. The government puts the toll at 22.

There was no word on casualties in Saturday's clashes.

by **Jdelagado** » Sun 24 Jul 2005, 13:21:46

DomusAlbion wrote:Reuters

This is nothing new; it's normal for the third- fourth world nations.

jdelagado

by **BabyPeanut** » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 08:06:42

link

Abu Aardvark reports: It's good to know that in an extraordinary week in Yemen - beginning with Ali Abdullah Saleh's declaration that he would not stand for re-election, and ending with fierce ongoing rioting in at least six cities over the lifting of oil and food subsidies - some things remain the same. To be precise, the Yemeni authorities yesterday demonstrated that one of the new but already timeless laws of Arab politics still applies: when trouble hits your country... arrest the al-Jazeera correspondent.

One day after Morocco withdrew the credentials of al-Jazeera reporter Abd al-Salam al-Razaq, al-Jazeera reports that Yemeni security forces arrested several mem

So it's more than just $2.25/gallon gasoline--there's food price increases too.

by **BabyPeanut** » Mon 25 Jul 2005, 12:08:37

Updates, body counts, ongoing fuel crisis issues, blood, gore, etc.:
link

Government buildings were attacked and tyres were set on fire around Yemen, in demonstrations which Sanaa's mayor, Ahmed al-Kohlaniare, estimated to have caused 468 million rials (2.55 million dollars) worth of damage in the capital alone. As well as buildings, he said the protestors had damaged power plants and vehicles and uprooted "at least 762 trees in the city".

link

France warns its citizens not to travel to Yemen

link

At least 36 people were reported killed and 500 injured in the riots which were accompanied by chaotic acts and violence on July 19-20 in the capital city of Sana’a and other provincial capitals including Aden, Hodeida, Ibb, Sa’ada, Dhamar, Amran, Dhale’ and Marib. The violent demonstrations pulled people together into the streets in protest against a government’s decision to lift fuel subsidies.
Fierce battles took place on Thursday afternoon between citizens and republican guard forces near the Arhab Faculty of Education, to the north of the capital.
Eyewitnesses told the Yemen Times that one military vehicle was seen on fire and another broken down near the Arhab Faculty of Education. Three citizens and a number of government troops were also reportedly killed in the battles.
Numerous citizens used arms in confronting the military troops, who were backed up by a helicopter that fired upon citizens from the air. The helicopter was however forced to land when citizens returned fire. ...
A source in Marib mentioned that locals are still blocking the highway to Sana’a and preventing oil and gas trucks from leaving or entering their city, which supplies large quantities of gas and other oil products. Also, Tribesmen from Nihm, east of Sana’a, blocked the highway running through their area and stopped all oil trucks owned by the government.
These two acts led to an unprecedented gas crisis in the capital, pushing the price of gas up to YR1200 per cylinder.

WTF is a "cylinder"? How does it compare to a gallon?

THE Yemen Thread (merged)

THE Yemen Thread (merged)

Re: Has Yemen peaked?

Yemen: Riots over Fuel Costs. 11 Dead (now 36 dead)

Yemen

Re: Yemen: Riots over Fuel Costs. 11 Dead (now 36 dead)

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