The Worlds Four Possible Futures...

[EnergyUnlimited]

I think we've all already proven that the Federal Reserve will not permit JPM or any other multinational to lock up with respect to dollars. You might as well put that idea in the "can not happen" bucket, because if the Fed has to print and loan a quadrillion dollars to make it happen, they won't even hesitate.

Weimar scenario was not any better than what Cloud9 is describing...

[Cloud9]

I guess I am at heart an optimist. The circle that I run in consists of small business people, farmers, cattlemen, school teachers, police officers, and veterans. Almost all of them are looking to security issues. Many are gardening. Some have large ranches and groves. One guy has two acres under hydroponics which equates to about ten acres of production. There are several hog farms in the area. There are goat ranches and a commercial winery. We have our own fertilizer plant.
There are a half a dozen small scale biodiesel operations. A local guy has built a wood gas set up. Several are looking into ethanol.
Almost all are armed. We have a local gun powder manufacturing facility. We have two gun shops that could compete with Sons of Guns on T.V. Some, if they can be believed are extremely well armed. There are a number of legal machine guns in my little group of friends and the local Wal-Mart sells Ar-15s. There is one small group that amuses itself by shooting aspirin off of toothpicks at one hundred yards. The woods are full of deer and hog hunters with scoped rifles that can easily drop a man at three hundred yards. There are several Barrette light fifties in the county and there is rumor of one 20 mm Lahti. To top it all off one guy has half a dozen operational fighters to include a P-51 mustang. There is an airplane manufacturing plant at the same location with a million dollar CGI milling machine that can mill out any piece of an air plane you can imagine to include machine guns and bomb racks.
The local sheriff’s office has a world class SWAT team. They just won a national competition. They have some heavy stuff. They have a Cadillac Gage APC. Two miles from my house the local armory has a 155 self propelled howitzer.
Churches are having quiet conversations about how to band together for food security and protection. Other small groups are doing the same thing.
People are looking up and paying attention. Could we be over run sure if the Army did it? More than likely we will have some good people get hurt then we will organize and sort out the threat.
I suspect my county is not unique.

[AgentR11]

Weimar scenario was not any better than what Cloud9 is describing...

If we were still using paper currency, and had to pay someone else in a currency we don't control, I'd agree with you. But those two factors change the game drastically. When I swipe my debit card, I don't really care whether the grocery total is $50 or $500,000 as long as it remains relatively reasonable compared with net liquid assets.

Those holding just cash and/or t-bills would of course be obliterated; but they were taking a huge gamble being non-diversified in the first place.

Not that it wouldn't be horrible in its own way, I just don't think we get to the empty grocery store shelves problem that way.

[EnergyUnlimited]

When I swipe my debit card, I don't really care whether the grocery total is $50 or $500,000 as long as it remains relatively reasonable compared with net liquid assets.

What if 2 days after a payday or customer pay day your $ 50 000 in the account would buy as much as now $5 does?
Digital money would not protect you against fast inflation if prices are doubling every few hours...

And paper money are not without a chance either.
What about $ 5 X 10 E25 dollar bill?

[Loki]

When I swipe my debit card, I don't really care whether the grocery total is $50 or $500,000 as long as it remains relatively reasonable compared with net liquid assets.

Uh, you won't have any liquid assets in a hyperinflation scenario. They will have been inflated away. There's a reason people turn cash into hard assets as soon as they can in hyperinflationary environments.

Best to get paid daily, preferably in the morning so you can spend your paycheck during your lunch hour before it gets inflated to nothing by the evening....

[EnergyUnlimited]

When I swipe my debit card, I don't really care whether the grocery total is $50 or $500,000 as long as it remains relatively reasonable compared with net liquid assets.

Uh, you won't have any liquid assets in a hyperinflation scenario.

PM, cigarettes/alcohol/coke, snickers bars?

[SeaGypsy]

So of those posting here (or reading/ waiting) does anyone believe the USA can frack it's way out of requiring martial law in the reasonably forseeable future? It seems clear there is a point at which price mechanisms no longer function in a way allowing economic rotation. It gets to the point where the government has no choice than to accumulate resources directly and by force if necessary, in a way becoming increasingly obviously unfair. This seems to be approaching sooner rather than later. I think there is an over emphasis on external threats prevalent in mainstream American thinking, which has a spill over effect even into very aware circles. Meanwhile the US has become the world's cop/ bully boy, right when it needs to pull right back and fix up it's own house. Too many intractables for a nice result.

How many folks, even here on PO.com, can honestly say they are anywhere near as ready as Cloud9? I doubt your county is unique in this aspect Cloudy, but I rate the real percentage very low. I think your treatise is valid, your forward thinking and planning well established, your community solid. Regardless of the mechanics of a specific methodology, it is this forward thinking, action and relationship building which will make the real difference who gets through the bottleneck in demographics approaching. Realistic assessment of risks must be one of the dictates.

Your approach to working WITH local authorities is very important and under-rated aspect of realistic forward planning for preppers. There is too much paranoia generating propoganda about the net, all too ready to hook the early awakener into distrust and abject disdain, a position from which no potency can come. Paranoia is one of the first signs of threat. The guys with the badges have the biggest collection of guns and best access to ammo. You best not only know them, but be on their fast dial and hardwired 'TRUST' list. We should never forget these people in uniform are still people and the only way to ensure they act like people is to treat them like people. On the flip side, if you live somewhere building this kind of relationship is impossible for whatever reason, or your local cops already don't like you for whatever reason, better move somewhere else and earn some respect.

[AgentR11]

So of those posting here (or reading/ waiting) does anyone believe the USA can frack it's way out of requiring martial law in the reasonably forseeable future? It seems clear there is a point at which price mechanisms no longer function in a way allowing economic rotation.

I'm just not seeing any instance where the price mechanism fails. The government can't be outbid. The domestic producers have to sell in dollars because all their legal obligations require payment in dollars, and there will be enough supplies for government use for a very, very long time. Even just talking conventional crude.

[SeaGypsy]

And what happens to the what are there 50 odd million current young folk expecting 'recovery' but in reality being inflated to the margins of Chinese wage equity? They are going to kick back and accept it that ok there is less and less and less?

[Loki]

PM, cigarettes/alcohol/coke, snickers bars?

Yes, I imagine those would all be good trade goods. Cigarettes and booze in particular.

It's crossed my mind to get into distilling, but I can't stand hard liquor myself. I'm a beer guy, and I've brewed enough to know it's not a viable black market enterprise. Herb on the other hand....

[SeaGypsy]

Beer is as good as herb, if the customers will come to you. Of course that requires a venue. Spirits are easier to carry around but remember you have to make something like beer first to distill from, adding another stage and burning up more BTUs. Really big kegs are the go for ease of beer making. Pressurization kegs rather than bottling saves a lot of mess and work.
If you can find a keg which does all of it and can then be refrigerated/ tapped, I think you're on a winner.

[EnergyUnlimited]

I'm just not seeing any instance where the price mechanism fails. The government can't be outbid. The domestic producers have to sell in dollars because all their legal obligations require payment in dollars, and there will be enough supplies for government use for a very, very long time. Even just talking conventional crude.

With sufficiently fast inflation selling becomes to be a losing exercise.
You gave away valuable goods for useless paper or meaningless digital records which cannot purchase anything few hours later.
Essentially after accepting dollars you are becoming bankrupt an hour later so you may well close the shop and sell nothing.

So you are either refusing dollar or sell for dollars only amount of goods needed to produce a sum needed for tax payment (such tax even if paid would be useless for government few hours later), or you join black market or just close your shop an call for government food aid.

So no, for those who wish to use official currency it is impossible to secure continuum of trade in hyperinflation environment.
Digital means of payment cannot change it.

[Tanada]

From what I have read successful merchants in hyperinflation countries are few in number and usually are located close to a currency exchange where they shift out of the local currency into a more stable foreign currency as soon as possible after a sale. Sometimes sending someone to the bank at the top of every hour to exchange the inflating cash for something more stable.

[EnergyUnlimited]

From what I have read successful merchants in hyperinflation countries are few in number and usually are located close to a currency exchange where they shift out of the local currency into a more stable foreign currency as soon as possible after a sale. Sometimes sending someone to the bank at the top of every hour to exchange the inflating cash for something more stable.

But what if global reserve currency is hyperinflating?
At this point one may expect suspension of convertibility of more stable currencies of small nations (like Swiss frank or Norwegian krona).
It would be suicidal for these nations *not to* do it.

I suspect that hyperinflation of dollar would enforce hyperinflation of any other currency convertible with dollar on free market or otherwise trade balances would look incredibly bad just within days.

I would expect successful traders to convert proceeds to PM (if not outright demands to pay in these).
And any law enforcement (to force traders to accept dollars) would just result in ceasing of trading.

With reserve currency hyperinflating there is no safe heaven currency.