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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The world needs to move away from oil ASAP.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The world needs to move away from oil ASAP.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 20 Sep 2015, 14:05:47

"...and can overall world continue roughly at the same output?" The US is a major food exporter. And what country is a major supplier of wheat to the EU? The Ukraine. And of the top 9 wheat exporting countries 7 are oil importers. And we all know how modern commercial agriculture is heavily dependent upon fossil fuels. As goes the fossil fuels so goes agricultural exports.
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Re: The world needs to move away from oil ASAP.

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 20 Sep 2015, 15:29:08

ROCKMAN wrote:"...and can overall world continue roughly at the same output?" The US is a major food exporter. And what country is a major supplier of wheat to the EU? The Ukraine. And of the top 9 wheat exporting countries 7 are oil importers. And we all know how modern commercial agriculture is heavily dependent upon fossil fuels. As goes the fossil fuels so goes agricultural exports.


On the other hand it tells me the oil exporting countries will get all the food they want. You can't eat oil, but you sure can trade it for food.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The world needs to move away from oil ASAP.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 20 Sep 2015, 19:46:00

T - And could work the same for the world's biggest wheat exporter...the USA. Our farmers can't plant that surplus without enough oil imports. So who eventually gets a country's oil exports: the folks that feed your citizens or one that competes with them for that exported food?
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Re: The world needs to move away from oil ASAP.

Unread postby isgota » Wed 23 Sep 2015, 06:23:52

pstarr wrote:"Morocco has about 400 years worth of phosphate at current rates, there is no immediate concern there."

Not if you apply Hubbert's calculus to the reserves.
Image
or this, the so-called linearization:
Image
It's the same issue with peak oil. Maybe not today or tomorrow, but the shortage is baked into the pie, and with a burgeoning population and depletions among other phosphorus reserves, this issue does suggest serious consideration . . . perhaps screaming yikes! would be appropriate lol


But production is now in the range of 225-220 million metric tons per year so it's Hubbert linearization a good model for phosphate depletion?

... Or even oil depletion?
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